[Serious] When will China exceed the US in aggregate nominal GDP?

[Heraclitus]

Wrong.
China is just under the $7000 mark. What do you think will happen?

I think that China's much more uneven development and larger size make it unlikely to show this effect beyond perhaps a percentage point.

The point is though, China is growing so well because of their manufacture of cheap sh*t...once wages increase a lot and their sh*t isn't so cheap, their economic growth will slow...from my perspective they don't hold anything else in their favour. At least India have a high level of scientific and technological expertise and output that China really need to look at matching.

Same response as above. There are vast regions of China that remain reservoirs of dirt poor cheap labour and will remain so for at least two decades.

Bah. Why would the US decline and China accelerate? Why wouldn't China be the one that slows? South Korea and Japan slowed significantly.

In the short term (10 to 20 years) I expect the Chinese government to be better at managing their economy than the US. In the medium term (20 to 50 years) I expect demographic changes in the US to start causing first stagnation and then slight decline in PPP adjusted per capita GDP.

[giblets]

Wrong.




China is just under the $7000 mark. What do you think will happen?

Wrong about what? $7000 per capita is way behind the developed countries in the year 2010.

[Al B. Sure!]

Okay so for comparison:

PPP GDP per capita (IMF):
US: 45,900
Japan: 32,500
S. Korea: 27,900
China: 6,700
Taiwan (FYI): 31,700 (nearly up to Japan!)

China is approaching that 7000 mark where 31 of 40 countries had their growth slowed by an average of 2.8 percentage points upon hitting it. If China's current GDP growth per capita is under 9% (accounting for population growth), then, assuming averages play out, you're talking maybe 6% growth looking forward.

[Provost Harrison]

$7000? Hell, most Latin American countries are ahead of that!

[giblets]

Bah, look at this. China hasn't even caught up to the world average. Making stuff there is still relatively cheap. link

[Al B. Sure!]

Wrong about what? $7000 per capita is way behind the developed countries in the year 2010.

You said:

They did that when they got close to the US in terms of per capita GDP, which China is nowhere near doing.

As a response to me saying that S. Korea and Japan slowed. No. Japan's GDP growth slowed in 1969 and South Korea's slowed in 1988 when both economies hit the $7000 mark which China is knocking on.

You're wrong. Japan and S. Korea slowed before approaching the US. US real GDP per capita was around 21K in '69 and 31K in '88.

[Heraclitus]

Okay so for comparison:

PPP GDP per capita (IMF):
US: 45,900
Japan: 32,500
S. Korea: 27,900
China: 6,700
Taiwan (FYI): 31,700 (nearly up to Japan!)

China is approaching that 7000 mark where 31 of 40 countries had their growth slowed by an average of 2.8 percentage points upon hitting it. If China's current GDP growth per capita is under 9% (accounting for population growth), then, assuming averages play out, you're talking maybe 6% growth looking forward.

BTW I predict South Korea will surpass Japan in per capita GDP by 2016 with 60% confidence.

[Al B. Sure!]

Whatever, Heraclitus. The people with PhD's in Economics who get paid to research this stuff say you're wrong. Sorry.


EDIT: maybe not about the S.Korea vs. Japan thing. I don't know.

[giblets]

You said:



As a response to me saying that S. Korea and Japan slowed. No. Japan's GDP growth slowed in 1969 and South Korea's slowed in 1988 when both economies hit the $7000 mark which China is knocking on.

You're wrong. Japan and S. Korea slowed before approaching the US. US real GDP per capita was around 21K in '69 and 31K in '88.

Look at this graph, ********: link

See how it doesn't slow down until they're close to the US? It's less true for S. Korea, but the same general trend applies.

[Barnabas]

2018 is silly, the Yanks would have to collapse and China would have to grow at even higher rates, and I don't think both things can happen, especially at the same time.

[Wezil]

PhD in Economics doesn't impress me after recent events.

Weathermen.

[giblets]

I guess we should just assume that $7000 is some kind of magical number instead of following the reasoning that PH pointed out and observing that China still has vast amounts of dirt cheap labor.

[Al B. Sure!]

Look at this graph, ********: link

See how it doesn't slow down until they're close to the US? It's less true for S. Korea, but the same general trend applies.

HEY GENIUS! Did you not see what I cited?

Japan's growth rate slowed when it approached 1/3rd of America's GDP per capita. S. Korea's slowed as well when it hit 1/4th of America's GDP per capita.

**** YOU YOU PIECE OF **** *******

[giblets]

HEY GENIUS! Did you not see what I cited?

Japan's growth rate slowed when it approached 1/3rd of America's GDP per capita. S. Korea's slowed as well when it hit 1/4th of America's GDP per capita.

**** YOU YOU PIECE OF **** *******

If you had bothered to do 10 seconds of research you would have noticed that China's PPP GDP per capita is ~ 1/7th of America's. 1/7th is quite a bit different from 1/4th or 1/3rd.

[DaShi]

I think the US will see stagnation from late 2011 and eventually noticeable decline beyond 2013, however it wouldn't describe it as collapse. I also expect China to get back to +10% growth by 2011 and continue to hold this until then.

I more or less expect the US government to mismanage their economy under increasing pressure in the following years, the bloat of government and debt ensure this.


There are other scenarios I find plausible that have a similar result. Regardless I would put about 30% probability for 2018 being the year, I would also put 25% on 2022 and 20% on 2027 if I was a betting men.

And what do you base this on?