[Serious] When will China exceed the US in aggregate nominal GDP?

[Al B. Sure!]

IT DOESN'T ****ING MATTER. THE POINT IS THAT IF THEY ****ING FOLLOW THE TREND THAT OCCURRED FOR OTHER COUNTRIES THEY WILL BE SLOWING SIGNIFICANTLY LONG BEFORE HITTING THE US'S PER CAPITA GDP.

**** YOU *******

[giblets]

IT DOESN'T ****ING MATTER. THE POINT IS THAT IF THEY ****ING FOLLOW THE TREND THAT OCCURRED FOR OTHER COUNTRIES THEY WILL BE SLOWING SIGNIFICANTLY LONG BEFORE HITTING THE US'S PER CAPITA GDP.

**** YOU *******

When other people extrapolate current trends you call it "hogwash". And Japan did in fact start slowing down when it was close to the US's per capita GDP.

[Al B. Sure!]

The point is though, China is growing so well because of their manufacture of cheap sh*t...once wages increase a lot and their sh*t isn't so cheap, their economic growth will slow...from my perspective they don't hold anything else in their favour. At least India have a high level of scientific and technological expertise and output that China really need to look at matching.

http://www.economist.com/node/10429271?story_id=10429271



Exports do not account for as much of China's GDP as you would think but the portion is getting larger.

[Al B. Sure!]

When other people extrapolate current trends you call it "hogwash". And Japan did in fact start slowing down when it was close to the US's per capita GDP.

yeah if you're talking 30-40 years from now because for all we know there could be a world war, some unforeseen technological boom, etc. anything. I'm just pointing out that countries typically are incapable of sustaining double-digit growth rates. China would be exceptional if they don't slow (and in fact, their GDP growth rate HAS been slowing).

[giblets]

yeah if you're talking 30-40 years from now because for all we know there could be a world war, some unforeseen technological boom, etc. anything. I'm just pointing out that countries typically are incapable of sustaining double-digit growth rates. China would be exceptional if they don't slow (and in fact, their GDP growth rate HAS been slowing over the past decade or so).

Slowing down over the past decade? Not according to the graph you just posted.

edit: here's another graph. I'm not seeing a downward trend over the past decade: link

[Al B. Sure!]

Slowing down over the past decade? Not according to the graph you just posted.

Go and google what China's GDP growth rate is now and see where it fits on that graph. It's not at double-digits now.

But I am seeing that estimates are all over the place online.

[Al B. Sure!]

[giblets]

This one has different numbers that the Economist one. Data is all over the place.

It seems to match the other graph you just posted.

[Al B. Sure!]

****er shut up. I caught my mistake already, you son of a *****.

the point is the growth is slowing down. Right now, it's at 9.1% so it hasn't accelerated since 2008. Not saying the current economic climate isn't the cause of that but how much longer will China remain with double-digit growth rates? History has shown countries can not maintain that forever plus the bigger China gets, the more susceptible they are to the shockwaves of economic crises. Some more East Asian economic turmoil and there's no reason to think China will be growing at 14% like Hera thinks.

[KrazyHorse]

HEY GENIUS! Did you not see what I cited?

Japan's growth rate slowed when it approached 1/3rd of America's GDP per capita. S. Korea's slowed as well when it hit 1/4th of America's GDP per capita.

**** YOU YOU PIECE OF **** *******

You are so ****ing hilarious.

I can't wait to see you ten years down the road, still living in ****hole philly yelling at everybody on Poly for no reason that anybody can divine.

You're a ****ing dullard, albie. A stupid, angry, lazy, piece of ****.

[Al B. Sure!]

You are so ****ing hilarious.

I can't wait to see you ten years down the road, still living in ****hole philly yelling at everybody on Poly for no reason that anybody can divine.

You're a ****ing dullard, albie. A stupid, angry, lazy, piece of ****.

HEY *******. NOTICE WHO STARTED SPEWING OBSCENITIES FIRST. Hint: it wasn't me it was the guy that called me a ********.4

Look at this graph, ********.

[KrazyHorse]

Exactly. gribbler said one word and it sent you into an incoherent rage.

********.

[giblets]

****er shut up. I caught my mistake already, you son of a *****.

the point is the growth is slowing down. Right now, it's at 9.1% so it hasn't accelerated since 2008. Not saying the current economic climate isn't the cause of that but how much longer will China remain with double-digit growth rates? History has shown countries can not maintain that forever plus the bigger China gets, the more susceptible they are to the shockwaves of economic crises. Some more East Asian economic turmoil and there's no reason to think China will be growing at 14% like Hera thinks.

I agree that Hera's prediction is unlikely. I also see no reason to think a slowdown is imminent.

[Dauphin]

A unique thing about China is the one child policy, and will be significantly effecting GDP growth and per capita growth. Surprised no-one's mentioned it yet.

[Egbert]

You are so ****ing hilarious.

I can't wait to see you ten years down the road, still living in ****hole philly yelling at everybody on Poly for no reason that anybody can divine.

You're a ****ing dullard, albie. A stupid, angry, lazy, piece of ****.

You are a truly despicable specimen of humanity. You can't take your own medicine so don't dish it out. Alby seems like an agreeable human being which is much more than can be said for you.