The Dear Leader is playing with his artillery

[dannubis]

So, I have a bunch of site-visit notes to type. You know, brainless work and right up your alley. Want to do something value creating for a change ?

[Argus]

Drix why don't you stop attacking other countries for once and focus on America. America has so many problems. We really are one of the biggest problems in the world.

[dannubis]

To be honest, as long as he is attacking the Netherlands I am PERFECTLY fine with it.

[Argus]

You aren't from the Netherlands I take it? Where from then?

[Hauldren Collider]

I'd rather buy "China" as an argument. South Korea does only exist because of US involvment in the region so I doubt they really have the last say what happens....thing is, nobody seems to be willing to go to war over Korea, including the US, because it could come at quite a high price.

I don't think China cares enough about North Korea to start a shooting war with the US if South Korea decided it's had enough. As for the high price, which has a greater price, continuing to let the north develop bombs and sink your ships or fighting back? If they had tried to conquer the north a decade ago then they wouldn't have to deal with the whole nukes thing either. This problem isn't going to be getting better anytime soon, if it were me, I would suck it up and end it now rather than let it fester.

Alby-
If I were Lebanon, I would do everything I could to stop Hezbollah from shooting at Israel, because the last thing I would want if I were a small middle eastern country would be for the IDF to kick my ass.

If I were Lebanon and actually had an army worth anything of course I would attempt to repel the Israelis.

South Korea's military, supported by the American military, is orders of magnitude superior to the North, which makes me wonder why they tolerate their northerly neighbor at all. If the North were substantially more powerful than the South I wouldn't question their decision to avoid war.

[Egbert]

I don't think China cares enough about North Korea to start a shooting war with the US if South Korea decided it's had enough.

China did have such a shooting war in the early 1950's.

[Hauldren Collider]

China did have such a shooting war in the early 1950's.

Things are very different between the US and China than they were in the 50s in so many ways.

[giblets]

A US invasion of China would have been possible in the 50s, that's why China wanted to keep North Korea as a buffer. They don't really need North Korea anymore.

[Hauldren Collider]

A few reasons China isn't interested in a shooting war with the US:

1. The US is an extremely important trading partner. It's almost impossible to overstate how important trade with the US is to China. It's even more important to them than it is to us, and just imagine what would happen if Wal-Mart couldn't stock its shelves.
2. The US has nukes and so does China. Neither is interested in war with another nuclear power.
3. China only keeps North Korea around because it is afraid of the poverty-stricken refugees that would result from the North Korean government failing. It's not for ideological reasons anymore.

Oh, and 4. Disregarding the whole nuke thing, the US military is vastly superior to China's. China's is more numerous but they don't have much in the way of an air force or navy and US soldiers are better equipped and trained. This is actually the least significant factor, since there would really be no winners in a China-US war.

[Egbert]

Things are very different between the US and China than they were in the 50s in so many ways.

True. I believe China and North Korea have a defence Pact though.
Any invasion of North Korea would carry a very real risk of Chinese intervention.

[Hauldren Collider]

Honestly, in terms of realpolitik, I think it would be a bit of a relief for China. They wouldn't have to subsidize their impoverished neighbor and South Korea would be a fantastic trading partner.

[Egbert]

Could be. The Chinese are deeply concerned about stability in North Korea. They don't like the thought of hordes of refugees crossing the border.
OTH They don't want US bases on their border hence less than enthusiastic about reunification. NK is a buffer.

[Hauldren Collider]

Could be. The Chinese are deeply concerned about stability in North Korea. They don't like the thought of hordes of refugees crossing the border.
OTH They don't want US bases on their border hence less than enthusiastic about reunification. NK is a buffer.

The US would have a much lesser military presence if Korea were unified. It's hard to say whether we would totally close the base, though.

[Egbert]

Umh. I imagine the Chinese would be very interested in that base being totally closed and staying totally closed. Wouldn't want a superpower having military stuff on their border. Perhaps if China had sufficient assurances, and trusted those assurances, they might be more relaxed about reunification. Dunno.

[Al B. Sure!]

China's military was piss poor in 1950 but they completely overwhelmed the US military in the winter of 1950/51. The People's Liberation Army did not receive aide from the Soviet Union until the fall of 1951 in an attempt to modernize the PLA in the midst of their war with the US. In fact, the Chinese had just formed an Air Force in 1949 and a Navy in 1950 so their military really was a backwards peasant army.

Yet they still came charging across the border and wiped the floor with the US forces. The 2nd Infantry Division was completely decimated and the Eighth Army had the longest retreat in US military history retreating from nearly the Chinese border to below the 38th parallel.

North Korea still exists because frankly, the US military couldn't handle a conventional war with the Chinese back in 1950-53. I shudder to imagine what a war with China in the 2010's would be like.

Is the gap between US military capability and Chinese greater or smaller today than it was in 1950? I'm not so sure that the gap is any greater.