Scottish independence

[Dauphin]

I suspect these days it depends far more on who bails out the Scottish banks.

Split the aggregate assets and liabilities along population, or GDP, proportions and the Scots will decide that splitting is a bad idea.

[Dinner]

Any Scot who pushes for independence is stupid. That said there is still a ton of North Sea Oil out there which hasn't been tapped into yet.

[Dauphin]

The UK's oil production is in rapid decline. It peaked about 10 years ago, and will be down to about 1/3rd of that peak in 10 years time.

[Dinner]

But how many new platforms have been built? The reality is there is a ton of locations further out in the north sea which haven't been brought into production. There is also a ton of coal mines which have been idled since Thatcher's time which could use thermal cracking to produce oil or gas. California has a similar problem where there is a ton of off shore places where we know there is oil & gas but which is politically blocked from production.

[Cort Haus]

Is the UK coal industry turning a corner?

[Dinner]

If "turning the corner" means 1/5th of its former output even while coal imports surge (mainly because domestic sources have been shut down due to a former government wanting to hobble unions) then yes but other wise no. Coal demand remains high as does prices so the logical thing to do is to help companies produce as much of it as possible domestically. The UK has truly vast coal reserves just like it has loads of untapped oil fields. Jump start domestic production using national industrial policy the way countries like China and Russia do and you'll find tons of high paying jobs created and exports will jump.

[Dauphin]

But how many new platforms have been built? The reality is there is a ton of locations further out in the north sea which haven't been brought into production. There is also a ton of coal mines which have been idled since Thatcher's time which could use thermal cracking to produce oil or gas. California has a similar problem where there is a ton of off shore places where we know there is oil & gas but which is politically blocked from production.

You are talking about something different now. Most coal fields are in England, not Scotland.

[Cort Haus]

It's an aside, but not an uninteresting one.

[Dinner]

You seemed to find it interesting when you were posting about, Cort. Either way, I've said Scottish independence is daft and the UK should be building as many new oil platforms as possible so that it can either 1) off set oil and gas imports or even better 2) export more oil and gas thus gaining new currency reserves while increasing employment. Like the US the UK badly needs an national industrial policy to increase industrial output and improve the nation's trade. Who doesn't think the UK could enact domestic preferential measures the way the Chinese have?

[Cort Haus]

I am certainly interested in the possibilities of a revival in the British coal industry. We need all the industry we can get, under the circumstances. Thatcher killed the industry for the reasons you mentioned, and our island is practically made of coal.

[Provost Harrison]

Well as fossil fuels dwindle, we are sitting on a bit of a goldmine (well, coalmine)...we can use the energy this provides to rebuild the empire! We're just biding our time!

[MikeH]

The UK's oil production is in rapid decline. It peaked about 10 years ago, and will be down to about 1/3rd of that peak in 10 years time.

Yes, but at the moment it's still 15m barrels a day, even when that drops to 10m in 10 years it's significant. Scottish independence in 20 years.

[OneFootInTheGrave]

If Scotland was independent they would be twice as well off at least, no English plundering their oil, and wasting money on foreign wars, nuclear deterrants and similar...

Look at the difference from Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland... Scots should use the first opportunity to move on, and let the English enjoy in the glory of the empire ruling over Northern Irish and Welsh.

$26,603 Northern Ireland GDP/capita
$49,863 Republic of Ireland

and that is without Oil ... with oil Scotland could have been like Norway, but as they let the English waste it, they can still be better off on their own, even if the English suck the oil dry before.

[MikeH]

Look at the GNP rather than GDP and the picture isn't so rosy.

Ireland's economy is currently ****ed. Even worse than ours. NI is improving all the time. It has a legacy of The Troubles, restricting external investment in the region which is being turned around.

There's no way we'd allow Scotland to keep all the oil. I don't think it follows that they could replicate 1990s Irish economic policy and guarantee the same levels of success.

[Bugs ****ing Bunny]

If Scotland was independent they would be twice as well off at least, no English plundering their oil, and wasting money on foreign wars, nuclear deterrants and similar...

Look at the difference from Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland... Scots should use the first opportunity to move on, and let the English enjoy in the glory of the empire ruling over Northern Irish and Welsh.

$26,603 Northern Ireland GDP/capita
$49,863 Republic of Ireland

and that is without Oil ... with oil Scotland could have been like Norway, but as they let the English waste it, they can still be better off on their own, even if the English suck the oil dry before.

The Scottish Nationalists big plan was to use Scotland's banking base as the launchpad to turn the nation into a financial powerhouse, like Iceland.

They had a lucky escape.