Tradin' shares

[KrazyHorse]

Stock picking is a sucker's game. A sucker's game I profit off of.

Feel free to trade as actively as possible.

[MOBIUS]

I made $15k last year on FTSE shares. I consider it time to sell and profit take.

Wow, I thought I did good.

I keep wondering whether I should profit take on all the gold I bought late 2008, given the upward trending of shares...

[Asher]

I personally only invest in mutual finds and index funds. I don't pay close attention to things so to direct invest would not be wise.

[OzzyKP]

Awhile I ago, I thought about creating a thread with similar questions - never done anything like shares/investments before, but I've been thinking about doing this.

Do you need a lot of money saved before you start? Could you invest with a modest amount to begin with, then add more later?

I'd recommend using TDAmeritrade. They have worked well for me and seem to be a cheaper option than E*Trade which I used before. Ameritrade charges per trade and E*Trade charges a monthly fee (may charge per trade in addition). I don't know about other options.

You don't have to have a certain amount to start with. You could probably just buy one or two individual stocks if you just wanted to play with it. You can always add more money. Or just keep the cash in a money market account with the online broker (i.e. what I do with Ameritrade) when it isn't in stocks.

I put in about $3,000 back in March (not a huge amount). I bought about 500 shares of Ford for around $2 something apiece and now it is close to $12. I just wish I bought more shares. I hedged and also bought some GE which went up a more modest 36%.

I've got my own investment question for y'all. How long should I hold on to Ford? I've got no immediate need for the money so I don't *have* to cash out, but I also don't want the price to start to tank again. Obviously that is the question with any stock purchase, but what do y'all think?

Some recent good news:

Ford ends year with big sales gains
5:06p ET January 5, 2010 (MarketWatch)

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Automakers slammed the books Tuesday on one of their worst years in decades while eagerly touting December's 15% surge in U.S. car sales as evidence that 2010 is going to be far better.

Ford Motor Co. led the charge, breaking further away from still-struggling Detroit rivals.

George Pipas, Ford's top sales analyst, said the double-digit improvement represents the best year-over-over performance for the group since the employee-pricing promotion sent sales soaring back in July 2005.

The closely watched seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales, or SAAR, came to 11.25 million cars and trucks last month, according to Autodata. That tops every month in 2009 except August, which got a huge boost from the U.S. government's cash-for-clunkers rebate program.

Specifically, Ford Motor Co. said its U.S. sales jumped 33%, while rivals General Motors Co. and Chrysler, both recovering from stints in bankruptcy, said they sold even fewer cars in December than they did a year ago, when the market appeared to be in freefall.

"Ford's plan is working," said Ken Czubay, the company's head of sales and marketing. "It was a challenging and very volatile year. ... For 2010, I'm leaving my seat belt on, because I think that volatility is still an element of the 'new norm.'"

Ford sales totaled 184,655 cars and trucks, up from 139,067 vehicles a year earlier, easily topping Wall Street's targets for the month.

Sales of Ford, Lincoln and Mercury branded cars rose 42% to 61,195 vehicles. Volvo, which Ford is in the process of selling, registered a 13.8% rise to 5,638 vehicles.

The truck side, boosted by big gains from the top-selling F-Series pickup, jumped 29.4% to 117,822 vehicles.

Ford said it likely garnered about 15% of the market, up 1 percentage point from 2008 -- marking the first year-on-year increase in the company's market share since 1995.

Dearborn, Mich.-based Ford has benefited from a relatively fresh lineup along with goodwill garnered from avoiding bankruptcy and declining to take money in a federal bailout, unlike Chrysler and GM.

Investors embraced Ford's report, running the company's shares up as high as $11.24 to touch levels not seen since 2005. The stock finished the session up 6.6% at $10.96 and has now added 325% in the past year.

GM, Chrysler slip

GM handed in a 6.1% sales decline to 208,511 from 221,983 a year ago, blaming a drop in sales of rental cars and brands not considered to be part of GM's future.

The company said it expects sales for the industry to tally about 10.6 million vehicles for the entire year, marking the lowest level since 1982.

"Increasingly, we are seeing signs of a global economic recovery," GM sales analyst Mike DiGiovanni said in a statement. "In the U.S., with firm used car prices, low interest rates and an improving economic outlook, we expect industry sales to improve after a dismal 2009 performance."

Chrysler, suffering from a dearth of new products, fared only slightly better. The automaker, now controlled by Italy's Fiat , reported a 4% dip in sales to 86,523 cars and trucks. The car side actually improved, rising 31% to 26,830, but truck sales lost 14% to 59,693 units.

Wall Street has forecast a seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of 11 million cars and trucks for December. That would mark the third-best month of the year, trailing only July and August, which were boosted by the government's "cash-for-clunkers" incentive program.

For his part, Ford's Pipas said that number could top 11.5 million.

The lowest point of 2009 came in February, when the annualized pace for cars and trucks tracked at 9.17 million units.

Toyota leads overseas charge

Toyota Motor Corp. said its U.S. sales increased 32.3% to 187,860 vehicles in December from 141,949 a year earlier. For the whole year, sales fell 20% to 1.77 million vehicles from 2.22 million in 2008.

"Emerging from the rollercoaster of 2009, the industry has gained positive momentum for a gradual recovery," said Don Esmond, senior vice president of automotive operations.

Honda Motor Co. posted a 24.5% jump to 107,143 vehicles from 86,085 a year ago. Car sales improved to 61,020 units from 50,918 last year, and truck sales increased to 46,123 units from 35,167 a year ago.

Nissan Motors reported an 18.2% rise to 73,404 vehicles. Car sales were up 22.4% to 47,139, while truck sales increased 11.3% to 26,265 units.

"The industry is coming out of a very tough year; it's good to see 2009 behind us," said Brian Carolin, senior vice president of sales and marketing. "And looking ahead, we're encouraged by some signs of economic improvement. Showroom traffic is building and consumer confidence is rising."

Buy more? Sell? Put some limit type thing on it?

[Felch]

At the advice of someone here I started using Thinkorswim. Like Asher said though, stick with funds. Index funds are best, since they avoid management fees that can eat up your bottom line.

[MrFun]

Thanks Ozzy.

[Jon Miller]

I know less than KH and others, and also think that index funds/etc are the best. But if there is an obvious purchase, than you should take it. I think that Ford was an obvious purchase ~1 year ago.

JM

[Flubber]

In the US mortgage interest is tax-deductible. If I ever have the urge to buy a house I'm mortgaging it as high as possible and taking an interest-only loan.

That seems a reasonable plan for you since I actually trust you will be smart enough not to go too crazy with what you can afford. Too many people borrow to the max of what they can finance such that even minor increases in interest rates put them under.

The most important point will be what you will actually do with the extra cash you will have from NOT paying down principle. If you invest it, you are quite likely to be far far ahead financially as you get a better return from the market than you pay in interest (particularly factoring in the tax deductibility)


Personally I am more conservative-- I like the security that comes with reducing my mortagage and I don't have interest deductibility. I also remember the day of 12 and 14 percent interest rates only too well and while I don't forsee them in the near future, the possibility remains.

So what I do is this

1. Max out RRSPS (retirement), RESPs (education) and TFSAs (Tax free savings accounts) each year (for the non Canadians-- all are vehicles which allow either your money to grow tax free or for you to deduct on contribution and pay tax on withdrawal)

2. Pay down a modest amount on our mortage each year (oh and I hedge on this as well in that some is on a fixed rate interest and some floats .

3. I invest in addition an amount that comes to 14% of my net pay. I find this and my funds give me as much exposure to the broader stock market as I care to have. So I reduce debt as well.




I know that my plan is probably "wrong" in the long run -- in that I do believe the market should have a higher rate of return than my interest cost (even factoring in taxes). But there is a limit to how far I am willing to take this belief. There is also an aknowledged emotional element in that I cannot completely view my home as simply an investment so there is a non-rational pride in moving toward true ownership of it. We plan/hope to live in THIS place for a long time.

[KrazyHorse]

That seems a reasonable plan for you since I actually trust you will be smart enough not to go too crazy with what you can afford. Too many people borrow to the max of what they can finance such that even minor increases in interest rates put them under.

The point is to use the decreased payments into the house's equity to purchase higher-yielding securities (which, because the mortgage interest is tax-deductible, is very easy to accomplish)

EDIT: ah, I see you went into that.

Tax arbitrage

[Flubber]

Ford? I haven't analyzed Ford so I don't know what you should do

What I do know is how you should decide. Forget for a moment that you own Ford or anything else for that matter Analyze Ford along with your other possible investments.. Pick your mix amd make the trades to make that happen . Whether you won or lost should be irrelevent since thats the past and your decision should be completely about whether a given stock is a good investment TODAY.

[The Mad Monk]

Stock picking is a sucker's game. A sucker's game I profit off of.

Feel free to trade as actively as possible.

It's the poker rooms all over again.

[Flubber]

The point is to use the decreased payments into the house's equity to purchase higher-yielding securities (which, because the mortgage interest is tax-deductible, is very easy to accomplish)

EDIT: ah, I see you went into that.

Tax arbitrage

Yup KH-- I credit you with knowing what you are doing-- With far too many people when I hear 'interest only" I have visions of spiralling consumerism since they can "afford it". next thing , they have no equity (or less than none) and a massive debt which they cannot afford when rates go up 2%.

[Flubber]

It's a terrible idea to do stock trading if you're a Mr. Fun or a Whaleboy. If you're not going to pay very close attention to the market and the companies you're investing in, don't do it.

QFT-- it is like playing poker with a pro-- they know more, play more and pay more attention.

I am very careful in the stocks I pick and they tend to be oil companies for some unfathomable reason