Let the good times (almost) roll

[Asher]

I prefer "flamboyantly homosexual".

[dannubis]

[KrazyHorse]

[Drake Tungsten]

Good news; the latest rumors were that unemployment was going to go up to 10.4%. Hopefully this is the start of a downward trend.

[Japher]

It's probably just a stall as companies hire temp employees for the holiday rush.

[KrazyHorse]

Yeah, too bad no economist has ever thought of that

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_adjustment

[Drake Tungsten]

Possibly, but I think the seasonal adjustment would control for most of that.

edit: **** you, KH. Let me handle the easy stuff...

[KrazyHorse]

Good news; the latest rumors were that unemployment was going to go up to 10.4%. Hopefully this is the start of a downward trend.

I doubt headline unemployment will continue down without any jumps. The only reason it came down this time is that the labor force actually shrank last month.

Anyway, it's good news. Consensus forecasts had headline unemployment peaking at ~10.4% in Dec.-Jan. and plateauing there for 3 months before trending down. Possible that they'll revise in light of this.

[Japher]

Yeah, too bad no economist has ever thought of that

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_adjustment

Do not try to confuse me with facts!

[KrazyHorse]

Personally, I've always cared more about jobs growth (employment population ratio) and hours worked than headline unemployment.

[Drake Tungsten]

I doubt headline unemployment will continue down without any jumps. The only reason it came down this time is that the labor force actually shrank last month.

Agreed. I suspect this might just be another downward blip on an otherwise upward trend (much like July's unemployment number), but I'm trying to be optimistic.

[KrazyHorse]

I don't think we're really on an downward trend any more. Just sitting at the trough of employment.

[Drake Tungsten]

Damn...

The bottom line is the decline in the unemployment rate this month was noise, and the unemployment rate will probably increase further. If the economy adds about 2 million payroll jobs next year, we'd expect the unemployment rate to still be at about 10% at the end of the year.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/12/if-economy-lost-jobs-why-did.html

[KrazyHorse]

I agree with that assessment, but I doubt that employment growth will only be 2mill next year. Probably closer to 3*, which would bring unemployment down to 9.5% or so.

*This is a handwavy forecast, and my confidence interval definitely includes 2 as a possibility

[-Jrabbit]

So, at least a 33% handwavy error margin (presumably weighted to the low side)?