How the Soviets Really Won WWII :)

[Patroklos]

You people are assuming a German ambition to conquer America. If the had achieved victory in Europe the war is over unless America commits to liberating it.

[David Floyd]

No, I'm assuming an unwillingness on the part of the US to accept peace. The war is only over if the (seemingly) victorious Germans give into American conditions for peace, one of which I can only assume would be the restoration of an independent Great Britain. If Germany declared war as they did historically, right after 12/7, then simply "giving in" to Germany would not be politically acceptable.

[Patroklos]

If Germany has achieved complete victory on the continent (ie Russians are already out of the game) there is no hope of an American invasion. America can prolong a staring match as much as it wants, but in reality the war is over unless Germany has a desire to continue offensively against America. There is no reason to assume this.

A victorious Germany can also expect to be far closer to America in the nuke race as well.

[Drake Tungsten]

Ghostbusters is on TV again.

[BlackCat]

Ultimately, though, all the German success on the battlefield would have been rendered irrelevant by August of 1945, when the US had developed atomic weapons, the means to continually produce them, and the means to deliver them from an aircraft that would have been, if not invincible, then a VERY HARD target to hit - the B-29. That's why all of this conjecture just doesn't matter. If the US is in the war, then there is no reason to assume that the Manhattan Project would have been delayed by any significant margin, and if that's the case, then we can easily imagine a very different, and much costlier, end to WW2 in Europe. Even if we finished up against Japan on schedule, imagine this scenario: 30 heavy and light carriers, with hundreds of US escort ships, deployed against the European coastline, operating aircraft that match and/or exceed the best interceptors the Luftwaffe can throw against them, able to gain local superiority ANY TIME they launched an alpha strike. Combine that with 2000 B-29s operating against strategic targets and cities, and then throw in atomic strikes at the rate of 1-2/month for as long as necessary, with the rate only increasing as time went on. Germany can't win.

B-29 had a fighting range of 5.200 km - the distance from New york to Berlin is 6.400.

At the moment US have the capacity to mount 2000 B-29, I guess that germany have fixed their problem in the east and have replaced their bf-109 with ME-262 - problably a more advanced than the plane they build 1.400 of. Without fighters, the b-29 would probably be defenseless.

[David Floyd]

If Germany has achieved complete victory on the continent (ie Russians are already out of the game) there is no hope of an American invasion. America can prolong a staring match as much as it wants, but in reality the war is over unless Germany has a desire to continue offensively against America. There is no reason to assume this.

I already addressed this point. To briefly recap, even assuming a COMPLETE German victory, defined as the surrender and occupation of Britain, conquest of the Middle East, and victory on the Eastern Front, Germany can't win the war. True, the US can't invade, but I also seriously doubt it would be politically possible to make peace with a regime that declared war on us the day after we were "stabbed in the back" at Pearl Harbor, even if FDR were inclined to pursue peace, which he wouldn't be.

But such a complete German victory wouldn't have happened overnight. The US could and would have shipped an army into the Middle East, to continue the fight in that area, probably with the support of Red Army units, a hodgepodge of British units that refused to surrender, and various Commonwealth forces (primarily Indian Army and ANZAC forces). The US was already shipping a considerable amount of military equipment through the Middle East. It's not much of a stretch to imagine, say, a 8-12 division US force deployed to the area (Middle Eastern ports couldn't handle supplies for any more than that), supported by the USAAF flying out of ex-British bases.

Another possibility is Stalin relenting, and welcoming US troops into the Soviet Union. It would have been a meat grinder, but I guarantee you that we would have chosen to pay the price. It's also possible the US could have attempted (with or without their consent) to grab and hang onto Ireland at the same time German troops were occupying England.

Bottom line, there are any number of ways the US could have kept the war going, even if they couldn't have launched a full scale invasion of Festung Europa. As long as the US stayed in the war, German cities were slated to start going up in atomic fire around the 15th of August, 1945. My guess is we'd hit Berlin and Nuremburg with the first strike, followed up by strikes against cities such as Munich, Hamburg, Kiel, and Peenemunde (site of major German rocket research). Of course, this would have been preempted by a MAJOR conventional bombing campaign, along the lines of, but on a greater scale than, what happened historically. This time around, we would have been using B-29s. Even if Germany didn't surrender at first, sooner or later something would have snapped. Either the military would have deposed Hitler, in which case given the scenario we might have considered something other than unconditional surrender, or we might have gotten lucky and taken out much of the top Nazi leadership in an atomic -or even conventional - attack.

A victorious Germany can also expect to be far closer to America in the nuke race as well.

Why? They were nowhere even close historically, and the Nazis were never all that interested in making a serious effort. It also didn't help that many of the necessary scientists were Jews or Slavs or politically unacceptable, and thus already out of the country working in the US.

Additionally, why does Germany feel the need to develop such "super weapons"? After all, they are "winning" by any conventional measure.

Also, even postulating that Germany develops an atomic device (although you're gonna have to convince me of that) how do they deliver it? A suicide U-boat strike would be their only option. I guess they could do that, but it's not going to end the war unless they somehow get lucky, develop a bomb and hit us first, AND either get FDR out of the picture or scare him into surrender. Any of those events are quite unlikely.

[chequita guevara]

German victory in the USSR also would not have meant being able to deploy massive amounts of troops against the Americans. Most of those troops would need to remain in the East on occupation duty.

[Flubber]

B-29 had a fighting range of 5.200 km - the distance from New york to Berlin is 6.400.

and from Newfoundland its 4500ish km--There are places the Americans could control that would be within 5200 and which could be resupplied sufficiently

At the moment US have the capacity to mount 2000 B-29, I guess that germany have fixed their problem in the east and have replaced their bf-109 with ME-262 - problably a more advanced than the plane they build 1.400 of. Without fighters, the b-29 would probably be defenseless.

here its easy to agree there would be a large problem. It is difficult to imagine a large scale bombing campaign in that time frame at that distance being something the germans would be unable to counter. However if DF is correct that the Americans could have multiple carriers parked just offshore the Americans could be providing a lot of aircover-- other attacks to occupy the Germans

[David Floyd]

B-29 had a fighting range of 5.200 km - the distance from New york to Berlin is 6.400.

That's nice, but the B-29s wouldn't be flying from bases in or near New York. I'm thinking more along the lines of staging out of Keflavik, on Iceland.

At the moment US have the capacity to mount 2000 B-29, I guess that germany have fixed their problem in the east and have replaced their bf-109 with ME-262 - problably a more advanced than the plane they build 1.400 of. Without fighters, the b-29 would probably be defenseless.

The ME-262 had an operational maximum ceiling of 11,450 meters, while the B-29 could operate at 12,000 meters w/ an airspeed of over 350 mph.

Additionally, the Me-262 was basically a maintenance nightmare for the Germans, and had very short endurance - well under 2 hours of flight time.

I suppose it is conceivable that the Germans could work out a solution to these problems, but by that point, not only is the B-36 right around the corner (which nothing even on the drawing boards at the time could challenge), but the US also has 20 carrier groups parked off of England and/or in the Bay of Biscay, decimating local Luftwaffe forces and forcing the German's to split their attention.

[BlackCat]

and from Newfoundland its 4500ish km--There are places the Americans could control that would be within 5200 and which could be resupplied sufficiently

Thought that you were run over by a bison ???

Well, I chose that distance to give a measure of the problem. It's quite true that there are places where they will be in operative distance of Berlin, but half of the route will be in enemy territory with no support from fighters.

A comparison would be german bombers trying to hit targets mid US.

[Sava]

German victory in the USSR also would not have meant being able to deploy massive amounts of troops against the Americans. Most of those troops would need to remain in the East on occupation duty.

Hitler would have just nuked America.

[David Floyd]

Well, I chose that distance to give a measure of the problem. It's quite true that there are places where they will be in operative distance of Berlin, but half of the route will be in enemy territory with no support from fighters.

A comparison would be german bombers trying to hit targets mid US.

That's not a good comparison, because German bombers couldn't reach the US. If the Germans had a bomber with the range to hit the US and the operational ceiling to mostly avoid interception (you know, like the B-29), then yes, we might have a comparison.

[David Floyd]

Hitler would have just nuked America.

Yeah? From the *SURPRISE* atomic program that he MAGICKED up from Harry Potter-verse, using technology derived from the Ark of the Covenant and the Spear of Thamos +3 that he picked up in Atlantis, oops, I mean Antarctica?

[BlackCat]

The ME-262 had an operational maximum ceiling of 11,450 meters, while the B-29 could operate at 12,000 meters w/ an airspeed of over 350 mph.

Do you have other sources than this - it says 10,200 m :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B-29_Superfortress

Additionally, the Me-262 was basically a maintenance nightmare for the Germans, and had very short endurance - well under 2 hours of flight time.

I suppose it is conceivable that the Germans could work out a solution to these problems, but by that point, not only is the B-36 right around the corner (which nothing even on the drawing boards at the time could challenge), but the US also has 20 carrier groups parked off of England and/or in the Bay of Biscay, decimating local Luftwaffe forces and forcing the German's to split their attention.

Sure, it wasn't exactly a joy to keep in the air, but given a year or two without being bombed routinely and lacking materials, I guess that the german engineers could improve such.

About your 20 carrier groups - there are one thing such don't like, and that is air attacks. Those groups aren't attacking an atoll with an airstrip and a dozen zero's but a continent wit lots of air bases and thousands of planes. Add to that a number of pretty effective submarines.

[BlackCat]

That's not a good comparison, because German bombers couldn't reach the US. If the Germans had a bomber with the range to hit the US and the operational ceiling to mostly avoid interception (you know, like the B-29), then yes, we might have a comparison.

Dammit - I was talking about the period they would be over enemy territory.