Healthcare Reform Thread II

[epmd]

Hopefully it's just that much easier to repeal then.

My prediction (which I know counts for almost nothing) is that just before it takes effect, a lot of large businesses will point out to the federal government that they will have to fire loads of workers/drop healthcare support/expand overseas/etc because of the law and (I think) congress isn't quite stupid enough to let that happen.

Or Cuccinelli.

[Drake Tungsten]

Hopefully it's just that much easier to repeal then.

It's not going to be repealed. The GOP won't take both houses of Congress this November and Obama will be re-elected in 2012 unless the Eurozone goes to **** and drags the U.S. into a double-dip recession.

[Hauldren Collider]

Or Cuccinelli.

I don't think that that is very likely to work. It certainly could end up being a huge liability for the court to strike down such a major law. They would have to be extremely careful to make sure that any constitutional basis for striking it down is strong enough to avoid them getting labeled as activist by Obama. If they go too far, congress will just ignore them.

[Hauldren Collider]

Hopefully it's just that much easier to repeal then.

It's not going to be repealed. The GOP won't take both houses of Congress this November and Obama will be re-elected in 2012 unless the Eurozone goes to **** and drags the U.S. into a double-dip recession.

I have no idea how you can be so certain of this. Unless you're playing Kuciwalker's don't-jinx-it game.

[Drake Tungsten]

Presidential elections are driven almost solely by economic factors. Obama has plenty of time for the economy to improve before 2012, so he will win unless the recovery stalls or reverses.

As for 2010, it's all but impossible for the GOP to take the Senate given the seats that are up for election. It's not going to happen.

[Hauldren Collider]

were 1996, 2000, and 2004 driven by economic issues?

[epmd]

I don't think that that is very likely to work. It certainly could end up being a huge liability for the court to strike down such a major law. They would have to be extremely careful to make sure that any constitutional basis for striking it down is strong enough to avoid them getting labeled as activist by Obama. If they go too far, congress will just ignore them.

As long as Obama doesn't get his hell-th care upon us all is forgiven and Cuccinelli will join...people...in the great attorneys general of all time.

I'm sure the court has dicked presidential plans before. (NRA...? AAA...? Bueller...?) And Obama has already dissed the court in his State of the Union address about the campaign financing decision.

Yes, Congress will also dick the Supreme Court.

[Drake Tungsten]

were 1996, 2000, and 2004 driven by economic issues?

The incumbent won in '96 and '04 because the economy was fine. 2000 was the result of the only other major factor, namely that it's very difficult for one party to control the presidency for more than 2 consecutive terms. Even with that impediment, Gore tied Bush thanks to a strong economy.

http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/RAYFAIR/PDF/2002DHTM.HTM