The Stimulus Is A Failure

[Drake Tungsten]

Good.

[Kidlicious]

Why do the posters who know the least about a subject always write the longest replies?

Translation: I don't understand economics so I'm going to call people stupid.

[Drake Tungsten]

I don't think you, of all people, should be accusing others of not understanding economics, Kiddy.

[Kidlicious]

I don't think you, of all people, should be accusing others of not understanding economics, Kiddy.

You've never been able to keep up with me, so one would hardly expect you to know otherwise.

[Drake Tungsten]

Thanks. That made my day.

[Drake Tungsten]

Did the Stimulus Save Us?

I'm watching Obama claim that it is "largely thanks to the Recovery Act" that the recession didn't become a depression. I supported the stimulus, and still do. But this claim is ludicrous. ...

Did the stimulus help? Sure. But Recovery.gov currently has a nifty graphic showing that of ARRA's $787 billion in budget authority, the government has currently disbursed about $287 billion. You'd have to posit some really remarkable multipliers for the stimulus to think that this prevented us from sliding into the Great Depression. ...

For comparison's sake, in 1930, GDP fell by 8.6% in real terms. In 2009, the BEA says that it fell about 2.4%, or about $300 billion. Had it fallen by anything close to 8%, that would have meant a decline of roughly a trillion dollars.

So the administration is claiming that by spending less than $300 billion, it managed to prevent more than $700 billion in economic decline--in other words, that the multiplier for their spending was higher than two. They're saying that every dollar they spent increased GDP by more than $2.

That's a pretty high estimate, especially when you compare it to the CBO's estimates of multipliers for various components of ARRA. Even if you take the top end of the range they give for every one of those multipliers, you'd still fall short, because the bits that give you the most stimulative bang for your buck--the direct government spending--have so far disbursed the least money.

Of course, if you listen to someone like Robert Barro, you'd use a multiplier of more like 0.6 or 0.7, implying that the administration has probably so far boosted GDP by maybe $150 billion, or about 1%.

1% is not nothing. But it's not the difference between us and a band of desperate Okies hoping that the old Model T will make it all the way to California.

http://meganmcardle.theatlantic.com/archives/2010/02/did_the_stimulus_save_us.php

[Drake Tungsten]

Even as the administration credits the stimulus package with creating or saving as many as 2 million jobs, just 6 percent of Americans think it has created jobs. Another 41 percent expect it will do so. However, 48 percent think it won't. These views have not changed much in recent months, but optimism about the impact of the stimulus package was much higher last summer.

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2010/02/11/politics/politicalhotsheet/entry6199106.shtml

[Theben]

That article was too long... it must have been written by a '****. Why are you quoting a ****?

As an aside, and to be fair, Obama and friends can claim that the stimulus bill calmed the markets and brought the hysteria of an imminent financial meltdown down to manageable levels. As for the rest, no comment.

[Drake Tungsten]

As an aside, and to be fair, Obama and friends can claim that the stimulus bill calmed the markets and brought the hysteria of an imminent financial meltdown down to manageable levels.

No, they can't. TARP had already done this before the stimulus even passed.

[Kidlicious]

I see Drake is still just quoting people, using other people's intelligence. It reminds me of that Star Trek: The Next Generation episode when the morons capture Jordi.

[Drake Tungsten]

I love it when retards who don't have anything interesting to say and are too lazy to read the arguments I've already made in a thread seek to criticize me for linking to news updates and other opinions.

[Guynemer]

I love it when I get a blowjob.




Oh... sorry. I thought we were sharing.

[Kidlicious]

I love it when retards who don't have anything interesting to say and are too lazy to read the arguments I've already made in a thread seek to criticize me for linking to news updates and other opinions.

Yeah whatever. Sorry. I was just joking.

[ricketyclik]

As an aside, and to be fair, Obama and friends can claim that the stimulus bill calmed the markets and brought the hysteria of an imminent financial meltdown down to manageable levels.

No, they can't. TARP had already done this before the stimulus even passed.

So you're saying once TARP was enacted everyone breathed a sigh of relief and said "Geez I'm glad that's all over, now let's get on with investing in production".

[Theben]

No, they can't. TARP had already done this before the stimulus even passed.

Oops, I tend to equate the two. Well, they can claim whatever they want, either way I don't think anyone is listening to speeches anymore.