The Stimulus Is A Failure

[Drake Tungsten]

They've already stopped a major plot in NYC on Obama's watch.

[Drake Tungsten]

For the US, we find the impact multiplier is 0.64 and the long-run cumulative multiplier is 1.19. While these estimates are certainly closer to Romer’s than to Barro’s, they mask some important structural changes over the sample period. When estimating the multipliers for the pre-1980 period, we get considerably larger numbers than the post-1980 multipliers. The post-1980 multipliers are just 0.32 on impact and 0.4 in the long-run. This is certainly a far cry from the impact multiplier (1.05) and long-run multiplier (1.55) used in the Romer report. ...

Our findings lead to the usual “it depends” answer to the size of the fiscal multiplier question. As those familiar with macroeconomic theory likely anticipated, the size of the fiscal multipliers critically depends on key characteristics of the economy (closed versus open, predetermined versus flexible exchange rate regimes, high versus low debt) or on the type of aggregate being considered (government consumption versus government investment). Policymakers would therefore be well-served in taking into account a given country’s characteristics in evaluating the benefits of any fiscal stimulus package.

Determining the Size of the Fiscal Multiplier

[Darius871]

Darius, Felch: Cogan-Taylor is the paper the stimulus skeptics typically refer to these days. However, i.e. Romer-Bernstein and Eichenbaum suggest higher fiscal multipliers.

Thanks, now wasn't that easy guys? No silver lining for Oerdin = me satisfied.

[Theben]

They've already stopped a major plot in NYC on Obama's watch.

Deathcab

Deathcab for Cutie

[Zkribbler]

Think, Zk. Write out the exact thing you are trying to prove. Then, consider exactly what information you would need to know for certain that it was true. (Hint: this information is impossible to acquire.)

That's exactly what I thought you guys were getting at.

Since none of these things can be proven to a mathematical certainty, you can put your hands over your eyes, pretend none of the turning around of the economy can be attributed to the stimulous package, and then scream that it is not working. The Republican'ts strike again!

IIRC, the title of this thread is: "The Stimulus Is A Failure." I've seen no proof to support this position.

Come back when you have something useful to contribute.

Edit: More good news: The U.S. deficit will be $200,000,000,000 less than predicted.

[Imran Siddiqui]

the title of this thread is: "The Stimulus Is A Failure." I've seen no proof to support this position

"God doesn't exist". I've seen no proof to support this position, therefore he must exist.

[Drake Tungsten]

Once again, I provide evidence every time I bump this thread. I provide a counterfactual (produced by the Obama administration) and compare it to the actual performance of the economy.

[KrazyHorse]

[Darius871]

That's exactly what I thought you guys were getting at.

Since none of these things can be proven to a mathematical certainty, you can put your hands over your eyes, pretend none of the turning around of the economy can be attributed to the stimulous package, and then scream that it is not working. The Republican'ts strike again!

Why don't the ones who went out of their way to spend billions of dollars have the burden of proof?

[Drake Tungsten]

New graph of the same failure...



I still kind of prefer the original...

[Seeker]

Just wondering if any of you have heard the recent news that goldman was massively hedging against subprime investments (including MBS) when they were a major 'packager' of MBS's. Without disclosure of course.

I simply assume that this means that JPmorgan was doing something similar but hid it better.

Is there such a thing as 'Capital Fraud' where you can just hang all this rotten elite class by their necks?

[KrazyHorse]

Were they hedging or were they going short? If they were hedging then why the **** would that be bad? They don't like having exposure to ANY market.

Are you going to start forcing Vanguard to be long beta simply because it sells S&P index funds?

[KrazyHorse]

Maybe we should prevent farmers from selling their produce on the futures market; after all, if they believe in it they should be willing to bear the risk of movements in the market...

[KrazyHorse]

Goldman's prop trading dept. was up 64 of 65 trading days last quarter, with mostly 100MM+ gains per day.

Yes, we're simply that smart.

[snoopy369]

I'd think that they should be congratulated for doing what they ought, and hedging their risks, rather than chasing profits and ignoring risk... but what do I know ...