I am nervous about the long-term future of the human race

[Heraclitus]

As far as I understand, he's making no such assumption, only that the behavior exhibits certain correlations.

A lot of people are making intent-based objections, but this is irrelevant to KH's point.

Then let him come up with a study proving this. A link would be most welcome and in fact necessary for any meaningful future discussion.


I've read studies that confirm people sticking to their own class (material capital group). But I have yet to see a study showing people tend to find mates in the same human capital group (at least not in the way he is using the word human capital). Unless he is making the assumption that human and material capital are strongly correlated.

[Heraclitus]

What has been presented are reasons why the correlation won't be as high as he might expect, and so won't give such a great shift that the stratefication will be largely in place in <4 generations.

JM

The real question KH should be posing (if he has proof or a very strong logical argument that such selection is happening) is whether the process is fast enough for the effect to become noticeable before humanity gains the tech to radically alter itself (MMI, GE,... doesn't really matter which)?

(you already made a similar point, talking about a singularity of sorts, but I'm extending your argument and saying that even if "progress" isn't exponential this sort of tech will effectively allow society to change the abilities of its members and will thus obsolete the highly idealized order he is describing)

[KrazyHorse]

I remember reading a study that completely shocked me (it showed rich people where not statistically significantly smarter than middle income people and even low income people in developed countries).

Please provide a cite. Every study I've seen has shown a moderate correlation between even as naive a measure as IQ and income.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient#Income

[KrazyHorse]

Are you actually getting a science degree?

He's not stupid. But he does engage in moderately dishonest tactics.

[KrazyHorse]

As far as I understand, he's making no such assumption, only that the behavior exhibits certain correlations.

A lot of people are making intent-based objections, but this is irrelevant to KH's point.

Yes. In fact, there have been a couple of studies lately which have shown a fairly strong shift toward mate stratification (I believe the value studied is generally education rather than intelligence, but the point remains)

[Ramo]

Genetic engineering is likely to have a much stronger influence than various selective pressures not too far from now.

[KrazyHorse]

I've read studies that confirm people sticking to their own class (material capital group). But I have yet to see a study showing people tend to find mates in the same human capital group

???

Dude, are you kidding me? One of the strongest correlations between husband and wives is educational attainment (probably superseded by racial homogeneity, but not much else).

[KrazyHorse]

http://books.google.com/books?id=KxO4KSPtz6gC&pg=PA87&lpg=PA87&dq=correlation+spousal+educational+attainment&source=bl&ots=-3_0RgVsUW&sig=nd7f0io85D0H59h5bTR2ws_x8DU&hl=en&ei=iwziSbaDFojmlQfc5ITgDg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=3

OECD-15 average for educational attainment correlation is > 0.5, US is slightly lower than 0.6

[Victor Galis]

a) I'm using "intelligence" as a proxy for "inherent human capital". Social ability etc. are all rolled in there

Fair enough; but I suspect the people who will be running the show aren't really the same as the people who are most productive. I think you'll see lots of very productive people who don't make a lot of money despite of having loads of education and intelligence. (You're doubtlessly aware that on average people with PhDs make less money than people with just a Master's degree.)

b) I think that as history progresses we ARE actually seeing a greater and greater meritocracy. Think about it: if the returns to human capital increase and the returns to physical capital decrease then the value of an inheritance of brains (again. meaning a whole host of traits) increases relative to the value of an inheritance of cash.

True, but history is messier than that. I suspect the lower classes are more inclined to violence and more likely to join the army or own guns. I suspect this imposes a lower limit on how bad things can get for them. Maybe not, maybe they'll just accept stagnation.

[SlowwHand]

Allow me a moment for the obligatory, "FU, MOBIUS".

[KrazyHorse]

but I suspect the people who will be running the show aren't really the same as the people who are most productive

That's not really the point; I'm not arguing that this will be a technocracy. Merely that it will be "fair" (there will be no real legal or socioeconomic barriers to mobility), yet mobility will cease).

Though I might note that, as previously stated, the returns to education HAVE been increasing for a long while now (probably have taken a hit over the last couple of years, but I doubt this will reverse the long-term trend)

You're doubtlessly aware that on average people with PhDs make less money than people with just a Master's degree

No.

Perhaps you are confusing master's degrees with professional degrees (which is the only educational group higher than PhDs)

[KrazyHorse]

http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/p23-210.pdf

The pattern

HS < Bachelor's < Master's < PhD < Professional is robust and has been true for a very long time, BTW

[chequita guevara]

I think that as the meritocracy has been extended this has become more and more true.

Nope.

In any event, the revolution will put an end to the elite and use their children for food.

[Kidlicious]

Postulates/observations:

1) The returns to human capital (education and intelligence) have been increasing and will continue to increase over time

2) The returns to physical capital are decreasing over time

3) Sexual equality will continue to increase

4) The more human capital one possesses the greater is the marginal value of human capital in a spouse. i.e. an intelligent and educated man places more value on acquiring an intelligent and educated spouse than does an unintelligent and uneducated man. This effect is increasing over time.

5) At least part of the human capital of parents is inheritable by children

What does the world I've just described come to look like eventually? Do any of you want to live in that world? Think about it for a bit.

What a useless load of jizz

[KrazyHorse]

Nope.

Really? You think that it's HARDER now for a child born into the lower quartile to go to school and get an upper-middle class lifestyle than it would have been for this same child 50 years ago (assuming identical intelligence and motivation)?

What ****ing planet do you live on?

In any event, the revolution will put an end to the elite and use their children for food.

**** you, you despicable piece of trash.