I am nervous about the long-term future of the human race

[KrazyHorse]

Postulates/observations:

1) The returns to human capital (education and intelligence) have been increasing and will continue to increase over time

2) The returns to physical capital are decreasing over time

3) Sexual equality will continue to increase

4) The more human capital one possesses the greater is the marginal value of human capital in a spouse. i.e. an intelligent and educated man places more value on acquiring an intelligent and educated spouse than does an unintelligent and uneducated man. This effect is increasing over time.

5) At least part of the human capital of parents is inheritable by children

What does the world I've just described come to look like eventually? Do any of you want to live in that world? Think about it for a bit.

[MOBIUS]

Texans will inherit the Earth?

[KrazyHorse]

Exactly the opposite, actually.

[BlackCat]

Danes forever

[Lancer]

The Earth will inherit Texans?

[MOBIUS]

Exactly the opposite, actually.

Except stupid people tend to breed more...

[Solomwi]

Postulates/observations:

1) The returns to human capital (education and intelligence) have been increasing and will continue to increase over time

2) The returns to physical capital are decreasing over time

3) Sexual equality will continue to increase

4) The more human capital one possesses the greater is the marginal value of human capital in a spouse. i.e. an intelligent and educated man places more value on acquiring an intelligent and educated spouse than does an unintelligent and uneducated man. This effect is increasing over time.

5) At least part of the human capital of parents is inheritable by children

What does the world I've just described come to look like eventually? Do any of you want to live in that world? Think about it for a bit.

Seems pretty Wellsian at first glance, at least in terms of societal stratification. But I admit that I'm drowsy and have just eaten, so thinking about it a bit is a tall order right now. Are you driving at any one thing in particular here?

[KrazyHorse]

Wellsian at first glance, at least in terms of societal stratification

That's what I'm thinking too.

Given the other factors, a meritocracy does not necessarily lead to high inter-generational social mobility. Sexual equality plays a large role in the stratification. If women were still valued mainly for looks and the ability to breed (and we assume these factors are uncorrelated with intelligence) then at least half the genetic lottery gets played every generation. When men and women start self-segregating in similarly-intelligent (intelligence being used as a euphemism for inheritable human capital) pairings then this reshuffling does not happen every generation. There is of course still a great deal of luck in the outcome, but much, much less than previously.

[KrazyHorse]

How much "elite" support for the social safety net is based on the worry (or fact?) that their own children might not (do not) have the same luck as them? How long can the welfare state compromise be maintained as more and more productive power is placed in the hands of this elite?

[KrazyHorse]

Interesting fact: controlling for income inequality, the closer an individual lives to poor people of another race the lower that individual's support for the social safety net.

e.g. rich white people who live near poor white people are willing to vote for higher wealth transfers than are rich white people who live near poor black people.

[KrazyHorse]

Is this unadulterated racial tribalism or is it a slightly more subtle comment on seeing those of your own race as representative of your children's prospects? What if you could be almost certain (on a subconscious level) that your own children could never fall far below you on the distribution? How much sympathy for the less fortunate would remain?

[notyoueither]

Interesting fact: controlling for income inequality, the closer an individual lives to poor people of another race the lower that individual's support for the social safety net.

e.g. rich white people who live near poor white people are willing to vote for higher wealth transfers than are rich white people who live near poor black people.

Where?

[KrazyHorse]

Can't remember where the study was done. Read it a few months ago.

[notyoueither]

There's always the French solution.

How many children today are the product of relationships that your mom would frown upon?

[KrazyHorse]

I assume you're referring to children born out of wedlock.

At least as far as Quebec is concerned, the fact that the parents aren't married has very little to do with the relationship being short-term. It has to do with the devaluation of religion.