Obama want to talk to the Taliban

[Traianvs]

It is a better long term solution than occupation. However, how moderate could a moderate Taliban be?

Most of them don't differ much from the Local Warlords. Only, the Taliban have an agenda, and are more organized.

[SlowwHand]

Yes; Bush tried it immediately following 9/11.

Kuci, your argumentative skills are sorely lacking; unless you actually mean it was foolish of Bush, but not for Obama. Either position is dumb as dirt.

[Berzerker]

The leadership of the Taliban still consists of the same crazy f*cks it always did, though they're currently motivated less by ideological/religious fervor than by the fact that Afghanistan is turning into a narcostate, and they're missing out on the spoils.

But much of the Taliban rank-and-file, and even at the mid-levels, are men who are not committed to the Taliban per se but simply see the Taliban as the most promising force in their area. This is especially true in Kandahar, Helmond, and Nimroz. These guys -- particularly the young, unemployed men with no immediate prospects at home -- could be drawn away, if viable alternatives were presented. To some extent, the Afghan security forces -- especially the Afghan National Army, which has been one of the great success stories of the last few years -- are beginning to provide such an opportunity, which is why Taliban terrorism has occasionally targeted recruiting centers. But it's not enough.

Right now, the Taliban's greatest weapon is the knowledge that, whenever we go home -- be it years from now or decades from now -- they will still be there, waiting. There's no question that that's true. The trick is not to wipe them out -- which we can't do -- but to undermine them (by depleting their ranks, among other methods) while building up an Afghanistan that seems to Afghans themselves as worth defending from the Taliban (as some of today's Afghans do not).

For that reason, Obama needs to be talking not only to the Taliban (with the hope of drawing away moderates) but also, frankly, Iran, which has a huge interest in seeing Afghanistan succeed and the Taliban fail.

i'll 2nd that, but I have my doubts about weakening the Taliban. They got Pashtun backing and they wont take kindly to our presence. The longer we stay the more we anger the people who live there.

[Arrian]

As I understand it, the Taliban is far from monolithic, and their interests are local, not global. So talking makes sense.

-Arrian

[Patroklos]

For that reason, Obama needs to be talking not only to the Taliban (with the hope of drawing away moderates) but also, frankly, Iran, which has a huge interest in seeing Afghanistan succeed and the Taliban fail.

Talking to the Taliban, especially through their leadership as Obama suggests, will not have the effects you describe above. All it will do is legitimize the Taliban.

I am all about undermining them as you said, but you don't do that via recognizing them as a legitimate player.

If we can draw the mid-level and low-level guys away but cutting deals with them similar to what we did with the Iraqi Sunnis to bring about the Sunni Awakening, then we should.

The difference is that the Sunni groups we were combating were products of the Iraqi War, this is not the case with the Taliban.

[Arrian]

My hope is that we can talk to some of them, and split them off. I don't know if it will work, but I think that's the general idea.

-Arrian

[Guynemer]

Bit of a tangent, but I just wanted to say that I never cease to be amused by my fellow Polytubbies debating Rufus on topics such as these as if they were also State Department veterans.

[Patroklos]

Why? Does it amuse you when people debate me on military matters?

[Guynemer]

Yes. Also when people question Imran's expertise on legal affairs, or Dr. Strangelove or myself on medicine. We aren't perfect, by any means, but when the dude with decades of diplomatic experience in the Muslim world speaks on the issue, I tend to give a bit more weight to his position.

[Kidlicious]

Bit of a tangent, but I just wanted to say that I never cease to be amused by my fellow Polytubbies debating Rufus on topics such as these as if they were also State Department veterans.

Well experts are often wrong.

[DanS]

I think we should be realistic about what we're doing here: Trying to set some Taliban against the others using cold hard cash. It has worked at least once to great effect -- Afghan loyalties sway with the winds -- so no harm in trying again. It cost a pittance in '01.

[Darius871]

Yes. Also when people question Imran's expertise on legal affairs, or Dr. Strangelove or myself on medicine. We aren't perfect, by any means, but when the dude with decades of diplomatic experience in the Muslim world speaks on the issue, I tend to give a bit more weight to his position.

So "the Muslim world" = rural Afghanistan? If anything a State Department functionary would typically be most familiar with (if not entirely fixated on) urban business/trade and travel affairs, not tribal politics in the Afghan countryside (no offense Rufus).

[Guynemer]

Look, find me someone with similar expertise who disagrees with Rufus, okay. (And I'm sure more than one such person exists.) But, let's be honest, my fellow Polytubbies--we are all just armchair quarterbacking, here. We're well-read, highly educated, very opinionated armchair quarterbacks, but we don't really understand all the ins and outs.

[Guynemer]

Well experts are often wrong.

True, but dilettantes are wrong considerably more often.

[DinoDoc]

Well if we're going to discuss the usefulness or lack thereof of deals with the Taliban, would it not be useful to discuss the deals Pakistan made with the Taliban and look at the fruit those bore.