$1.75 trillion federal budget deficit

[Naked Gents Rut]

I have no idea how much U.S. taxes will increase by. I also have no idea whether Ireland will be able to maintain its low tax rates. Luckily, I didn't say or imply that I knew the answers to these questions.

[chequita guevara]

I would not be totally shocked if at some point, we do reach ten percent unemployment. IIRC we're already at 7 percent.

If unemployment were counted the same way today as it was counted during the Great Depression, it would be over 17%. Shocked?

[snoopy369]

Mathematicians don't use "trillion". They use "1e12"...

[chequita guevara]

http://doughenwood.wordpress.com/2009/02/26/obama-coddling-bankers-indeed/

It was predicted in this space just two weeks ago: “Obama to coddle bankers.” Now we’ve got official confirmation of this from one of the prime coddle-ees: Citigroup. An analysis of the Treasury’s plan produced by two Citi analysts, Ryan O’Connell and Jerry Dorost, begins with this headline: New Treasury Stress Test Guidelines Do Not Appear Onerous, and continues in this vein. The plan is “bank-friendly and investor-friendly.” The goal is to increase bank capital “while minimizing the amount and duration of any government’s direct ownership of common stock.”

The stress tests aren’t very stresssful, either: neither “onerous or draconian.” That is, the economic parameters for the “more adverse” scenario are not much worse than the consensus forecast for what the economy is likely to do over the next year. The baseline is for –2.0% GDP growth this year and +2.1% in 2010; an unemployment rate of 8.4% this year and 8.8% next; and another 18% decline in house prices. The “adverse” alternative is for –3.3% on GDP this year and +0.5% next year; unemployment of 8.9% in 2009 and 10.3% in 2010; and another 29% decline in house prices. To me, the baseline looks optimistic, and the adverse, slightly on the dark side of realistic.

And the gov will be very indulgent if banks look “stressed,” even by these friendly criteria. Banks will be given six months to raise private capital (good luck with that, guys!). If they fail, the Treasury will buy preferred stock, which can be converted into common at a 10% discount to the stock price on February 9. The choice of date looks to be no accident; as the Citi analysts comment, “This provision appears intended to reduce the potential dilution to equity holders, since banks’ stock prices were generally higher at that time.” (Using a lower price would give the government a bigger share at the expense of existing stockholders.) To take a nonrandom example, Citigroup’s stock closed at 3.95 on February 9; as this is posted, it’s 2.51, 36% lower. (Current quote).

To use the Japan vs. Sweden model that Obama himself used, this is a lot closer to Japan than Sweden. Anything but nationalization!

[Theben]

How was I ignorant? I said Ireland had low taxes and I'd consider moving there when U.S. taxes go up. There's nothing there to correct.

The other thing you failed to note is that when the Irish started making a mint they wound up curtailing immigration, including from the U.S.

[Agathon]

So you would rather have a depression rather than a recession in the interest of not spending anymore money.

I request that the forum owners force-change DanS' nick to "Herbet Hoover".

[Agathon]

To address the topic of the thread, my spirit has been completely broken by the ever increasing deficit. Obama complained about the failed economic policies of Bush, but then proceeded to add more long-term debt obligations in a month than Bush managed in 8 years. I've just accepted that the Baby Boomers are going to do everything possible to **** up the country while they're in power and there's absolutely nothing I can do to stop it. The real question for me is whether I want to stick around and try to fix the country or just bolt to sweet, low-tax Ireland...

One of my closest friends and his wife live in Dublin. I've visited there, and it is a beautiful city. But they, and about 99,998 other people spent last weekend protesting against the Irish government because the joke is that the difference between Ireland and Iceland is one letter and six months.

[MrFun]

If unemployment were counted the same way today as it was counted during the Great Depression, it would be over 17%. Shocked?

damn . . . .

[MrFun]

Then you can start getting 40% worried about us going into a Depression that needs a New Deal.

I think I would become 41.35 percent worried.

[Dinner]

damn . . . .

He's right. For the last 30 years politicians have been fiddling with the way we calculate things like unemployment and inflation in order to lower them and make the politicians look better.

This is a well known and respected site which calculates such figures using the traditional methods from the 1970's and 1960's instead of the gerrymandered system the politicians have fiddled with: http://www.shadowstats.com/

[Naked Gents Rut]

The other thing you failed to note is that when the Irish started making a mint they wound up curtailing immigration, including from the U.S.

I'm not worried about getting a visa. I have plenty of marketable skills.

One of my closest friends and his wife live in Dublin.

I'd rather live in Connaught, but I suppose Dublin is where all the jobs I'd be suited for are at.

[MrFun]

He's right. For the last 30 years politicians have been fiddling with the way we calculate things like unemployment and inflation in order to lower them and make the politicians look better.

This is a well known and respected site which calculates such figures using the traditional methods from the 1970's and 1960's instead of the gerrymandered system the politicians have fiddled with: http://www.shadowstats.com/

Thanks for this link, Oerdin.

[Joseph]

How much is a Million?
How much is a Billion?
How much is a Trillion?
What's the difference between a million, a billion, a trillion?

A million seconds is 12 days.
A billion seconds is 31 years.
A trillion seconds is 31,688 years.

A million minutes ago was – 1 year, 329 days, 10 hours and 40 minutes ago.
A billion minutes ago was just after the time of Christ.

A million hours ago was in 1885.
A billion hours ago man had not yet walked on earth.

A million dollars ago was five (5) seconds ago at the U.S. Treasury.
A billion dollars ago was late yesterday afternoon at the U.S. Treasury.

A trillion dollars is so large a number that only politicians
can use the term in conversation... probably because they
seldom think about what they are really saying. I've read that
mathematicians do not even use the term trillion!
Here is some perspective on TRILLION:

Trillion = 1,000,000,000,000.
The country has not existed for a trillion seconds.
Western civilization has not been around a trillion seconds.
One trillion seconds ago – 31,688 years – Neanderthals stalked the plains of Europe.

Million: 1,000,000
Billion: 1,000,000,000
Trillion: 1,000,000,000,000
Quintillion: 1,000,000,000,000,000,000
Sextillion: 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
Nonillion: 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
Centillion: 1 followed by 303 zeros

Well, at lease someone here know what a Trillion is. Good show

[Lancer]

I'll start worrying when the US debt reaches a Quintillion and my rice fields stop growing rice.

Nah, actually the US debt isn't that big a deal as long as the rice fields keep producing.

[DanS]

If unemployment were counted the same way today as it was counted during the Great Depression, it would be over 17%. Shocked?

I don't believe this to be the case. Not even close.