Americans voted for Change

[Ramo]

Even if you accept all this, 1% is still an extremely low probability

Yeah, a bunch of guys whose plans intelligence believe were already disrupted, and cancelled as a consequence, had a much larger than 1% chance of pulling off the second largest terrorist attack that has ever occurred in the US proper. Right dude.

[Drake Tungsten]

a much larger than 1% chance

[Velociryx]

I seriously doubt Blair has tried to quantify the costs of enhanced interrogations anymore than you have. As such, his judgment about whether the costs outweigh the benefits is educated guessing, at best.

Wait, wait…a few posts ago, when you needed to use this guy as a reference for your argument he was…what did you say?

Is better positioned than almost anyone else on the planet to know whether there were benefits or not.

Right…so a guy with the kind of resources available to him that his department can bring to bear, he’s obviously going to make a less informed “educated guess” than Drake Tungsten, who’s gonna do a little googling and a quick back-of-the-napkin analysis.

Ohhhhhkay. So on the one side, I’ve got “best guy on the planet” making the statement that:

The bottom line is these techniques have hurt our image around the world, the damage they have done to our interests far outweighed whatever benefit they gave us and they are not essential to our national security.

And on the other side, I’ve got Drake Tungsten.

Bestguyonplanet?

Drake?

Hmmm….you know, that’s a tough one, but I think I’ll have to side with the expert and the multi-billion dollar budget. His opinion likely carries a bit more weight, and he is, after all, advising presidents, rather than ranting on a gaming site, so…

As to this:

Then how can you be so sure that the costs outweigh the benefits?

I can be certain by relying on the informed opinions of experts (including your hand-picked, bestguyonplanet one ), whose conclusions indicate that the costs outweigh the benefits.

I don’t need to know the particulars of their methodologies to read their findings reports and understand the bottom line, and the bottom line is that the informed experts don’t seem to be supporting your position (not even the one you picked!)

But I’ll stop beating you to death with your own guy. It’s clear that you’re either thicker in the head than Kid (in which case, all arguing with you is going to accomplish will be to raise my blood pressure), or you’re too ignorant to realize when you’ve boxed yourself into a corner (in which case the next string of posts will be all about trying to redefine the argument into something you can win). I don’t think I want any part of either case, so I’ll leave you and Ramo to continue to duke it out, and bid you good evening.

-=Vel=-

[Drake Tungsten]

Is better positioned than almost anyone else on the planet to know whether there were benefits or not.

This statement has nothing to do with whether or not Blair has quantified those benefits and compared them to the costs.

I can be certain by relying on the informed opinions of experts

You don't seem to understand the limits of those experts' knowledge.

in which case, all arguing with you is going to accomplish will be to raise my blood pressure

I wish it would raise your intelligence level, but that doesn't seem to be working...

[Velociryx]

This statement has nothing to do with whether or not Blair has quantified those benefits and compared them to the costs.

Quite right, but his concluding remarks imply some level of analysis, and given his intel and resources, I'm sure it would compare more than favorably with Drake + Google + Napkin.

You don't seem to understand the limits of those experts' knowledge.

I'm willing to bet it's several orders of magnitude above Drake + Google + Napkin, and that's what gets your goat.

-=Vel=-

(Blair's limitations, while I'm sure they exist, put his best "educated guess" several zip codes removed from whatever you might be able to discover via google, but I understand...having already rolled out "best guy on planet" and having his conclusions land on the opposite side of what you're attempting to argue, it would look a little foolish to attempt to invoke some other expert (what? Second best guy on planet? Fifth?), so, you gotta do what you gotta do I guess.



g'nite.

[Drake Tungsten]

Quite right, but his concluding remarks imply some level of analysis, and given his intel and resources, I'm sure it would compare more than favorably with Drake + Google + Napkin.

I didn't make any conclusion on whether the benefits of enhanced interrogation of KSM outweighed the costs. I only provided an example of how the benefits could be calculated. You don't seem capable of understanding what I am writing...

Blair's limitations, while I'm sure they exist, put his best "educated guess" several zip codes removed from whatever you might be able to discover via google

Again, I didn't come to any conclusion. Why are you demeaning a conclusion that I didn't even attempt to make? Is it because you don't want to attempt to quantify the costs of enhanced interrogations in the way I attempted to quantify the benefits?

[Ramo]

a much larger than 1% chance

I misunderstood what you were saying. But it's still a completely absurd statement. For a terrorist act on the same order of magnitude of 9/11, that's a ridiculously large probability. If you really believe that a handful of potential terrorists inside of our borders without a plan constitutes a 1% threat, the expected value for annual 9/11-like attacks would be enormous. Your probability estimate is complete horse****.

[Drake Tungsten]

I'd trust your judgment more if you appeared to have even a cursory knowledge of the "Second Wave" plot and the terrorist cell that was meant to carry it out.

edit: A little background on Hambali, who was reportedly involved in the "Second Wave" plot and was captured thanks to information from KSM...

Hambali: 'Asia's Bin Laden'

[Ramo]

I know that the Bush Admin said that it was defunct in 2002.

[Drake Tungsten]

One of the commenters on Noah's article noticed that an LA Times article that Noah himself linked to in his piece says that the plot wasn't abandoned in 2002 and was moving forward again under Hambali...

Dude ... from your own linked LA Times article:

Federal counter-terrorism officials on Friday disclosed for the first time that during his interrogations, Mohammed said he hadn’t completely abandoned the prospect of a second wave of attacks, but had turned the idea over to a trusted aide named Hambali, the chief of operations for an Al Qaeda affiliate group in South Asia, Jemaah Islamiyah.

Hambali, also known as Riduan Isamuddin, in turn is believed to have chosen several men to launch the attacks, including a pilot, and had set aside some money to pay for them, according to one senior counter-terrorism official.

Those men were soon captured, however, and the plot never progressed past the planning stages, according to several counter-terrorism officials.

“To take that and make it into a disrupted plot is just ludicrous,” said one senior FBI official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in accordance with departmental guidelines.

Perhaps the language confused you, but the second wave was foiled in 2002, a second effort to carry it off was put into the hands of Hambali, who wasn't captured until late 2003

http://www.slate.com/discuss/forums/permalink/2697790/2697790/ShowThread.aspx#2697790

[Ramo]

Mohammed said he hadn’t completely abandoned the prospect of a second wave of attacks

That does not say "Mohammed said he hadn't completely abandoned the prospect of attacking the Liberty Tower." According to what you quoted, there's a cast and some money. And that's all. The sum total of that is not a plan to attack the Liberty Tower, much less a coherent plan of any kind.

The more relevant parts of what you quoted:

Those men were soon captured, however, and the plot never progressed past the planning stages, according to several counter-terrorism officials.

“To take that and make it into a disrupted plot is just ludicrous,” said one senior FBI official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in accordance with departmental guidelines.

[Drake Tungsten]

So you're sticking with your line that there wasn't even a 1% chance that the most experienced terrorist in Southeast Asia could've pulled off an attack on the Liberty Tower if KSM hadn't given up the information that led to his arrest and that of his cell?

Maybe you should wait until the revised talking points come out tomorrow.

[Ramo]

According to the Bush Admin there was not an active plan to attack the Liberty Tower.

That last post of yours was weak. Maybe the Corner can give you some more material.

[TCO]

Anyone who thinks waterboarding was not torture needs to be waterboarded. Anyone who thinks actionable intel can not be obtained from torture needs to be tortured until they give up their ATM pin code.

The right saying waterboarding is not torture is STUPID. The left saying force (torture is force) is not effective in compelling testimony is STUPID.

[Drake Tungsten]

According to the Bush Admin there was not an active plan to attack the Liberty Tower.

This is a poor showing, even for you. Still better than Vel, though.

The right saying waterboarding is not torture is STUPID.

I think it can be torture, depending on how it's applied. It's on the borderline.