Decoupling

[KrazyHorse]

Don't quote him, please.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Victor Galis
On the other hand, a falling dollar will soften the exporters' pain.

Do you mean rising dollar? Either way it won't matter much. You can help KH explain it when Canada is in recession.

[RedFred]

Go ahead, quote me, you know you want to.

Originally posted by DanS
Can you link to the BMO report? Or a news article regarding the report?

Sorry Dan - I have access to it at work, through a service my office subscribes to. It is against the rules to reprint it here. Here is a fairly crappy link to what may be a summary:

http://www.globaltv.com/globaltv/national/story.html?id=955731

[Victor Galis]

No, the Canadian dollar has fallen recently against the US dollar. This ought to ease the pressure off our exporters.

[RedFred]

Originally posted by Kidicious
It'll be fun to watch KH explain his hairbrained theory further in the comming months.



http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/10/06/recession.html

I think it is time for KH to explain again how great the Canadian economy is doing.

[KrazyHorse]

a) Canada is not in a recession yet

b) I think it's time for you to explain where in this thread you find me claiming that we wouldn't enter a recession in the next year

Because so far as I can see, you're simply demonstrating complete and utter ignorance of the meaning of the correlation coefficient and, more generally, random deviates.

[RedFred]

Erm... Check out the thread title "Decoupling". The premise being that Canada and US economy not moving in the same direction.

Erm...I said tanking, as in recession on its way. But how how do you spell recession? I define it as 2 consecutive quarters of decline. 70,000 jobs lost in one month, well that would be a sign of tanking. Anyhow, here is an article merely the first of thousands on google:

http://business.theage.com.au/business/world-business/canada-slashes-rates-as-recession-hits-20081210-6vo6.html

Erm..."Random Deviates" definition - my dictionary just has this big picture of KrazyHorse.

Keep attempting to debate it though... it will give me another excuse to bump the thread.

[Asher]

Recessions are not defined in terms of job losses.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by RedFred
Erm... Check out the thread title "Decoupling". The premise being that Canada and US economy not moving in the same direction.

Again, demonstrating total ignorance of what I've said.

The US and Canadian economies have, based on the last 12 years of data or so, decoupled significantly. This means that changes in the US macro picture have SIGNIFICANTLY LESS EFFECT on Canada than previously (again, based on DATA, not your silly little snippets from a bunch of prognosticators talking out of their asses). This doesn't mean that the economies are WHOLLY DECOUPLED (implying a correlation coefficient of 0). In fact, I stated that the recent correlation coefficient is ~0.25 IIRC. This compares to an earlier value of ~0.75. Nor, EVEN IF THE ECONOMIES WERE WHOLLY DECOUPLED (which I have not claimed) would that preclude the Canadian economy from going into a recession at the same moment the US enters one (actually, we're already a year into the US recession, while we may just be entering a Canadian one). There being no correlation would simply imply that it is NO MORE LIKELY for the Canadian economy to enter a recession when the US enters one than at any other time (well, this is not quite right, but it'll do when trying to get something across to somebody is quite evidently ignorant of even the most basic statistical concepts).

Erm...I said tanking, as in recession on its way. But how how do you spell recession? I define it as 2 consecutive quarters of decline. 70,000 jobs lost in one month, well that would be a sign of tanking. Anyhow, here is an article merely the first of thousands on google:
[url]http://business.theage.com.au/business/world-business/canada-slashes-rates-as-recession-hits-20081210-6vo6.html

Again, we MAY BE ENTERING ONE NOW. We will not know for at least 6 months. The opinions of some dude from TD Bank are about as worthless as yours.

Erm..."Random Deviates" definition - my dictionary just has this big picture of KrazyHorse.

Keep attempting to debate it though... it will give me another excuse to bump the thread.

There's no debate. There's me laughing at you for thinking that your posts in this thread have some value when you're not even able to speak the language.

[RedFred]

Pardon me a bit KrazyHorse - I am obliged to quote myself for Asher's benefit:

Originally posted by RedFred
But how how do you spell recession? I define it as 2 consecutive quarters of decline.

The kindest thing I can say is that the thread provides entertainment value and you are now almost right when you say we "may be" in recession. Just replace the "may be" with "are".

But you will have to wait for any more discussion from me for a week or two. I'll post again when it is even more blindingly obvious that we are in a recession.

[CrONoS]

Originally posted by RedFred
Pardon me a bit KrazyHorse - I am obliged to quote myself for Asher's benefit:

The kindest thing I can say is that the thread provides entertainment value and you are now almost right when you say we "may be" in recession. Just replace the "may be" with "are".

But you will have to wait for any more discussion from me for a week or two. I'll post again when it is even more blindingly obvious that we are in a recession.

Seriously, you should only post if you can add something substantial to the thread.