Decoupling

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
correlation coefficient 1970 to 1994 (real annual gdp growth rate) 0.746

correlation coefficient 1995 to 2007 (real annual gdp growth rate) 0.360

So now you're saying something happened in 1995? Of course "what" is a good question.

Why didn't you make the cut off 2001? That's when exports as a share of gdp to the US started declining.

[Vanguard]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse


Commodity prices rise during expansions. Over-reliance on commodities would imply a stronger cycle for the Canadian economy, not weaker. This was the classic pattern observed up into the 90s. Something has happened since then.

That rule did not hold in the 90's and early 00's. Commodity prices were stable or falling. So there was no commodity "boom" to collapse when the 9/11 recession hit. And when commodity prices did spike recently this only counteracted the harm done to the rest of the Canadian economy.

In the US on the other hand, commodity prices stopped the economy dead with no large counteracting benefit.

That's just my quick take. I haven't made any deep analysis of the issue.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Vanguard


That rule did not hold in the 90's and early 00's. Commodity prices were stable or falling. So there was no commodity "boom" to collapse when the 9/11 recession hit.

This is true, and is a very important observation.

[dannubis]

Originally posted by DanS
If anything, the rise of the Chinese and Indian economies will make the commodities markets more volatile because the demand from these countries is more volatile.

BS!

Read up on things before you make wild assumptions will you ?

[DanS]

You're going to have to quote the numbers, dannubis.

[RedFred]

Originally posted by Kidicious
It's just a lag.

A rare event... a winner of an internet argument.

New data, particularly the new BMO report is showing the high commodity prices helped us out early in the year, and a falling dollar helped cushion us more recently. Now we are tanking big time.

[DanS]

Can you link to the BMO report? Or a news article regarding the report?

[CrONoS]

Since I can't create new thread; here something interesting read on econbrower.

The anomalous fed funds market

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/11/the_anomalous_f.html

[Asher]

Originally posted by CrONoS
Since I can't create new thread; here something interesting read on econbrower.

The anomalous fed funds market
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/...omalous_f.html

How do you say Feliz Navidad in Frenchie?

http://www.apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=181996

[CrONoS]

Originally posted by Asher
How do you say Feliz Navidad in Frenchie?

Joyeux Noël

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by RedFred


A rare event... a winner of an internet argument.

New data, particularly the new BMO report is showing the high commodity prices helped us out early in the year, and a falling dollar helped cushion us more recently. Now we are tanking big time.

It's almost as though you have no clue what the "arguments" (such as they've been) in this thread are about. It's also almost as though you believe in economic forecasting, but I'm having a hard time thinking you're that crazy.

[CrONoS]

Originally posted by RedFred
Now we are tanking big time.

The big tanking doesn't show itself, yet, in data.

http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/081114/d081114a.htm

http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/081114/d081114b.htm

Employment:

http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/081107/d081107a.htm

[CrONoS]

Just wanted to point out a thread started one year ago on Canada recession, which is yet to comes:

Canada may yet be spared from the worst of a US recession

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=174506&perpage=30&pagenumber=3

[CrONoS]

Oh I also wanted to point another post from http://worthwhile.typepad.com:

What if increased government spending is contractionary?

http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2008/10/what-if-increased-government-spending-is-contractionary.html

I briefly read the Roberto Perotti's paper. And it seems like the grx point out, that a tax cut had more effect on the GDP, than spending increase (like the Chretien plan in early nineties).

Maybe the 2% tax cut in the GST, actually helped us out.

And I'm favorable to his conclusion:

Here's what I'd like to see:

* No mention whatsoever of increasing government spending as a counter-cyclical measure - that sort of exercise is pretty much futile.
* Broadening and strengthening the safety net. For example, there are many workers who would not be eligible for benefits if they lose their jobs. If these measures result in a deficit, so be it.

[KrazyHorse]

correlation coefficient world gdp growth canadian gdp growth (annual)

1970-1994: 0.765
1995-2007: 0.272

wtf?

Not exactly what you'd expect from an economy which is supposedly becoming more resource-driven