Decoupling

[Victor Galis]

Originally posted by Kidicious


It was probably better not to invest in their oil industry. The extra oil wouldn't have been cheaply produced.

Investments occurred, but not as many as $140/barrel oil would cause if it actually persisted long term. I also notice dividends from my income trust didn't increase much as oil prices went up, and they haven't been cut now.

I'm starting to think the lack of economic contraction has something to do with the lack of massive asset bubbles like the US has faced.

[KrazyHorse]

Kid, we've all seen what happens when you try to argue with me. For your sake I suggest you take a step back.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Kid, we've all seen what happens when you try to argue with me. For your sake I suggest you take a step back.

I don't want to argue with you. That's why I just called you a ****.

[Colonâ„¢]

What the heck is up? 30% of the Canadian economy is trade with the US. That hasn't changed. Why the hell would we decouple?

Are you playing stupid or something?

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Colonâ„¢


Are you playing stupid or something?

???

[Victor Galis]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse


???

I think he's pointing to the decline from about 35% to about 25% of GDP of US exports since 2001.

So I suspect he's implying the answer to your question is that decoupling is occurring because exports to the US are being replaced by something else (hence their relative decline compared to GDP).

[Colonâ„¢]

The crazy thing is that he posted that graph himself. I'm a little drunk right now, and maybe I missed something, but right now KH is confirming my suspicion fizziisists just can't take things together.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Colonâ„¢
The crazy thing is that he posted that graph himself. I'm a little drunk right now, and maybe I missed something, but right now KH is confirming my suspicion fizziisists just can't take things together.

You really need to pay attention.

Exports have declined since hitting a high in 2001. The decoupling happened some time before 2001 because we didn't undergo the same type of contraction the US did around that time. We don't appear to be undergoing a contraction this time around either, despite the fact that our exports to the US (and total trade as well) as a share of GDP are still higher than they were in 1991, the last time we actually underwent a recession with the US.

You need to look at the time scale on graphs, not just their shape. The important **** happened some time between '91 and '01, while our trade with the US was still increasing.

[Aeson]

You Canucks just aren't as adept at bubbles as we are. BOOM OR BUST, BABY!

[Kidlicious]

Better just stop KH.

[Dinner]

KH, no exports have not declined. Exports as a share of GDP have declined which means exports could be growing but their share of the economy is shrinking (other things are growing faster probably services).

[KrazyHorse]

You are a ********, kid. Like, one of the stupidest people on Poly.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Oerdin
KH, no exports have not declined. Exports as a share of GDP have declined which means exports could be growing but their share of the economy is shrinking (other things are growing faster probably services).

a) This is a useless observation, even if it were true. It has no bearing on the situation
b) Given that I doubt the Canadian economy is expanding at 10% per annum exports in absolute terms (real dollars) have declined as well.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
You are a ********, kid. Like, one of the stupidest people on Poly.

Definitely not in this thread, and this time other people can tell.

[Colonâ„¢]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse


You really need to pay attention.

Exports have declined since hitting a high in 2001. The decoupling happened some time before 2001 because we didn't undergo the same type of contraction the US did around that time. We don't appear to be undergoing a contraction this time around either, despite the fact that our exports to the US (and total trade as well) as a share of GDP are still higher than they were in 1991, the last time we actually underwent a recession with the US.

You need to look at the time scale on graphs, not just their shape. The important **** happened some time between '91 and '01, while our trade with the US was still increasing.

It's hard to look into it properly since I have to pay to check historical data at statcan. However, as far as I can tell Canada's growth in fact is decelerating along with US' (Canada's GDP also contracted in August).

I think you're just a little too hung up on exact matches.

(Y-Y GDP growth in Canada)