What's next for the GOP?

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Darius871


In 8 years everybody will forget that the preceding mess or the present circle-jerk ever happened. The left-right paradigm is metaphorically just a continuing sine wave winding around one line that barely moves at all.

Nothing changes. At least not until people have an attention span that lasts longer than broadcast segments.

Nothing changes?!?

People forget that the Dems seized power in '32 and turn the U.S. into a world economic superpower with the highest standard of living in history for its everyday citizens. Once Reaganomics was instituted in '80, the middle class has been stagnating, the infrastructure has been deteriorating, and we've become the world's biggest debtor nation.

[Whoha]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse


Too bad he pandered to social conservatives, huh?

Its the economy stupid.

[KrazyHorse]

What does that have to do with my reasons for not "supporting" McCain?

[snoopy369]

Normalize that graph by population and it might well be a bit more interesting...

Certainly the personality on the republican side matters, but I think it's a bit more complex than that. You're basically starting at a high watermark for the republicans; since 1968 we've shifted dramatically to the right, and this is presumably the end of that shift (starting in 1968, peaking in 1984, ending in 2008, for 40 years of republican or fake-democrat republican dominance). We'll see if it holds up of course (and how the GOP changes its strategies ... hopefully dumping the RR but of course that's probably the least likely strategy, sadly).

[KrazyHorse]

I heard something strange might have happened in '92 too.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

The basic cycle of American politics, as I've said here many times before, is as follows:

1. Elect the GOP because they have a clear plan for America and will be effective at implementing it.
2. Discover that this is in fact true; the problem is, the plan is actually evil.
3. Elect the Democrats because they're not the Republicans.
4. Discover that the Democrats have no plan, and probably couldn't implement it if they did.
5. Repeat ad infinitum, ad nauseum.

That being said, the conservatives -- who are not the same thing as the GOP -- are in trouble. When Reagan came to power, the last great failure of conservativism -- the heady mix of laissez faire economics, isolationism, xenophobia and religious fundamentalism of the 1920s -- was more than half a century in the past. If Dems get even half as much mileage out of Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld as they did out of Harding/Coolidge/Hoover, we'll all have jetpacks before we have another conservative administration.

[Whoha]

If you simply didn't support him because of Palin then oh well, obviously having the most strident supporter of free trade in the Whitehouse wasn't your primary concern this election.

[DanS]

This election was the colonic to flush out the notion that deficit spending is OK. Unfortunately, there were those like Cheney who thought that we would "starve the beast" by lowering taxes and that deficits didn't matter.

Fiscal conservatives/pro-business plus social conservatives and pro defense is a winning ticket.

[KrazyHorse]

It wasn't my primary concern because Obama in the WH won't have any real effect on the US trade relations except in very specific instances.

[Whoha]

So then its a loser for us and we can dump it

[DanS]

Lose the free trade and you lose the pro Main Street business types.

[snoopy369]

I liken this to more of LBJ's situation than Harding->Hoover. The Republicans gained so much from the post-LBJ anti-vietnam war backlash, and then kept it after Carter. Who would've predicted the GOP still be in power for basically the next thirty years after a GOP president was forced to resign amidst a major scandal, only losing ONE election after, and two more elections to a nearly-republican, in the next three decades (8 elections)?

I think there will be a general anti-GOP backlash for a few decades, longer if Obama and his successor(s) are very good at their jobs and don't screw anything serious up (and get lucky and don't have a severe depression or other major catastrophe), shorter if they are incompetent. But at this point, even Jimmy Carter couldn't lose the democrats the presidency quickly I don't think.

The only wildcard is the christian/social conservative element, though, to me. If that movement picks up more steam and sticks its bus behind the GOP once again, that could make things more complicated; but it could also lead to more serious issues down the road, I think.

[MrFun]

Originally posted by snoopy369
Normalize that graph by population and it might well be a bit more interesting...

Certainly the personality on the republican side matters, but I think it's a bit more complex than that. You're basically starting at a high watermark for the republicans; since 1968 we've shifted dramatically to the right, and this is presumably the end of that shift (starting in 1968, peaking in 1984, ending in 2008, for 40 years of republican or fake-democrat republican dominance). We'll see if it holds up of course (and how the GOP changes its strategies ... hopefully dumping the RR but of course that's probably the least likely strategy, sadly).

Man, would I love to see more Republican politicians get a spine and severe themselves from the religious right . . . .

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Whoha
So then its a loser for us and we can dump it

If you'd like you can dump the pro-trade rhetoric. Actions are another thing entirely.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Re: What's next for the GOP?

Combo of:

Originally posted by Elok
1. They spend many years in effective exile, barely holding on to a few seats in Congress and being unobtrusive, until the public has forgotten the W years and starts voting for them again.

2. Obama does something phenomenally stupid, or there are a bunch of gigundo scandals, or the Democratic party in some other way lives up to its reputation for screwing up a sure thing, and the political balance returns to 2004 levels or so.

5. The GOP gets another Reagan-type figure or otherwise succeeds in reinventing itself. Business as usual.

We'll see if Jindal is all he's cracked up to be, which would accelerate 5 at the expense of 1 and not having to rely on 2.