So if Obama wins, that's democracy at work. If McCain wins, the fix is in, right?

[GePap]

Originally posted by Lancer


I can blow that right out of the water Zkrib. They called me.

They likely tracked you down based on voter registration and electoral records.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Naked Gents Rut
If internal polls weren't more accurate than public polls, campaigns wouldn't spend "hundreds of millions of dollars" conducting them.

I wasn't saying a single campaign spent that much, I was talking about in total.

Why is it that campaigns often release dueling internal polling, showing conflicting results? That doesn't speak to their being any more accurate than aggregate of public polling.

[KrazyHorse]

All campaigns since the beginning of time added together have not spent hundreds of millions on internal polling.

[Lancer]

Originally posted by GePap


They likely tracked you down based on voter registration and electoral records.

I think it was random. They asked for the youngest registered voter in the home. Well I'm 50 but Dolores wasn't home sooo...


They got lucky.

[The Emperor Fabulous]

Originally posted by GePap
The youth turnout has been relatively low in the states where they have held early voting

But hasn't there been an significant increase in Youth absentee voting, as many young people study in other states?

[Aeson]

Maybe if you include Pepsi vs Coke and X beer vs Y beer polls you could get to that number...

[The Emperor Fabulous]

Originally posted by Aeson
Maybe if you include Pepsi vs Coke and X beer vs Y beer polls you could get to that number...

And Dunkin' Donuts' new poll that says they're preferred to Starbucks' coffee in a blind taste test.

[Lancer]

What about people who can see?

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
All campaigns since the beginning of time added together have not spent hundreds of millions on internal polling.

I would have to challenge you on this. Given the sheer number of campaigns waged over the past, say, 10 years-- Presidents, Senators, Representatives, Governors, Mayors, State offices, State legislatures, etc., occuring on some level every year, it would easily add up to that.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov


I would have to challenge you on this. Given the sheer number of campaigns waged over the past, say, 10 years-- Presidents, Senators, Representatives, Governors, Mayors, State offices, State legislatures, etc., occuring on some level every year, it would easily add up to that.

Not all of those do internal polls.

Internal polling is a fairly small expenditure of campaigns. A couple of percent at most.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Lancer
Don't more repugs have unlisted #s though? So they can't be polled, right?

That won't stop a random number generator.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Lancer
I'm not a racist Boris, nor am I a complete idiot.

Wrong on both counts!

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Comrade Snuggles
Wrong on both counts!

He's technically correct when he said "I'm not a racist Boris," because his name is not Boris, so he certainly can't be a racist Boris.

[chequita guevara]

[Lefty Scaevola]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov
So? They still use polling, and there's no evidence that internal polling is any more or less accurate than the widely-available polls.

Every campaign guy I have spoken too SAYS that internal polling is significantly more accurate than public news polls.
As for the error comesin, (and oviously there is a lot, just by comapring the large variance in polls measring the same thing) is the weighing of the sample. A poll does not publish the average of all its results. It filters them first by camparing the demogrphics of the sample with the PREDICTED demographics of the turnout. Eg, every poll you see published of O vs M is modified by the polster's prediction of how many 20-25 years left handed urban Circassain professionals, etc, are going to vote. EG if the % of x responding to their poll does match the % of x that their predict to be voting, they adjust the weight of the x response in their poll. So if their prediction of x voting is incorrect, their poll is incorrect. The predictions come from other data in the polls and other polls and a lot of guesswork.