LOL somebody's giving out free money on Intrade again

[KrazyHorse]

http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/timeAndSalesForm.jsp?contractId=376101&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com

[Darius871]

Maybe they know something we don't

[KrazyHorse]

Nah, it keeps happening. Has been a regular feature. I tried to get some money in to take advantage, but my credit card refused transaction.

[faded glory]

everybody is gonna go into the booth away from the pollsters and media and vote against the negro.

watch

[KrazyHorse]

Thanks for the lovely sentiment, you piece of trash death-faker.

[Darius871]

Aren't you dead?

Edit: xp'd again

[KrazyHorse]

http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com&contractId=376101

Money's gone now.

[Boris Godunov]

Nate Silver at 538 showed how this all seemed to be the doing of one individual trying to game the Intrade ratings in favor of McCain. Good use of money, sucka

[KrazyHorse]

Nate silver didn't show that, because he doesn't have access to IP records. Intrade confirmed that the unusual movement was due to a single party, but claimed that they had been convinced by the party in question that the motivation was legitimate hedging (against a McCain victory) by a party which couldn't be bothered to time their purchases to avoid saturating markets. I think that explanation is bull**** and Intrade should simply have said that there was market manipulation and invited traders to pick up the free money which it was making available.

[RGBVideo]

12/100? that's nothing

when ron paul was polling 4%, his supporters were trying to raise their own morale by rigging intrade, apparently not realising that the market doesn't affect gallup polls and thus doesn't create any sort of bandwagon effect at all. as a result, paul's stocks were hitting 5/100 at the time his iowa primary polls compared to poll leader were something like 4/26. mccain's 45/55 isn't that wide of a stretch compared to that

[RGBVideo]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov
Good use of money, sucka

yeah. throwing money down the drain in order to rationalize your delusions = teh smart

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Nate silver didn't show that, because he doesn't have access to IP records.

He called it before Intrade made that announcement. It's well-documented on his site. No, he didn't have IP records, he just used a good amount of deductive reasoning.

[KrazyHorse]

It was 17 when I posted this, after having been 12 for quite a while, with no intervening poll numbers that indicated any major shift.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by VJ
yeah. throwing money down the drain in order to rationalize your delusions = teh smart

Is that arguing or something? Because I was talking about how this guy did exactly that--threw his money away on the delusion of McCain winning.

Actually, he didn't even do that. He just did it to artificially inflate McCain's percentage for what I imagine were motivational reasons to McCain supporters.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov


He called it before Intrade made that announcement. It's well-documented on his site. No, he didn't have IP records, he just used a good amount of deductive reasoning.

He wasn't the only person to notice the strange movements. I noticed it myself (before I'd even heard of 538). I really wouldn't credit him with anything other than publicizing it.