2012 Republican Nomination

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Pawlenty. Y'all are seriously underestimating the GOP's capacity to play it safe, even in dire straits. Remember, this is the party that, after Goldwater, went back to Nixon. So a nice, safe, white-bread governor, untarnished by the looming debacle or by the eight-year fiasco that preceded it, from a state the GOP could potentially pick up on a good day. Pawlenty.

[Guynemer]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov

the Republicans couldn't possibly be dumb enough to nominate again a 76-yr-old who lost badly four years previously.

Dude. Seriously.

Three weeks left. And you're basing all this overconfidence on the voters of Appalachia turning out for a secret Muslim black Arab terrorist?

My fellow Poly liberals, please repeat after me:

It isn't over yet. Obama has not won a damned thing yet. I shall wait until the votes are counted before I start to celebrate.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Guynemer
Dude. Seriously.

Three weeks left. And you're basing all this overconfidence on the voters of Appalachia turning out for a secret Muslim black Arab terrorist?

Obama doesn't need Appalachia at this point. He could lose Ohio and Florida and still win.

As I said in the other thread, it's not 100% certain, but the odds are decidedly in Obama's favor, and it's not going to change those odds one way or the other by speculating in a thread like this.

[Naked Gents Rut]

It's over. Obama could reveal his socialistic leanings to every plumber in America and McCain would still lose.

[Guynemer]

Maybe I'm too much of a pessimist, but I have a real hard time seeing Obama winning here in Ohio.

Yes, he doesn't need any of the Appalachian states to win (OH, WV, VA, NC), but if he doesn't get any of them, he'll still need to pick up Florida or Colorado or Nevada. I am not comfortable with that scenario at all.

[Darius871]

Tempting fate

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
Pawlenty. Y'all are seriously underestimating the GOP's capacity to play it safe, even in dire straits. Remember, this is the party that, after Goldwater, went back to Nixon. So a nice, safe, white-bread governor, untarnished by the looming debacle or by the eight-year fiasco that preceded it, from a state the GOP could potentially pick up on a good day. Pawlenty.

Yeah, but Nixon won. There is a reason. During the time between Nixon's loss and his nomination, he went around the country campaigning for Republicans. So a lot of the party owed him. Pawlenty doesn't have the political smarts that Nixon had.

[Boris Godunov]

Pawlenty isn't exactly Mr. Popularity in his home state, either. He barely eked through on his reelection, and the bridge collapse drew a lot of attention to his budget cuts for the state's infrastructure.

[Ramo]

Also, Pawlenty faces a deep D bench in two years and would have to run for his third term. And no way he'd be able to take Klobuchar's seat.

[Blaupanzer]

Do not assume a Democratic victory with over two weeks to go until the vote. Trust me, several of these presidential elections have come right down to the wire even though the polls said the race was over (i.e., 1968). Also, the last two elections were so close that they looked and smelled stolen.

Numbers count. DO TURN OUT TO VOTE. Count your chickens when the last necessary court ruling has settled the outcome. I'm for Obama, but I picked Palin in this poll, because she will be President in 1976 if that ticket wins. McCain's constant and frantic running around and building to emotional explosions is going to kill him.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Blaupanzer
I'm for Obama, but I picked Palin in this poll, because she will be President in 1976 if that ticket wins.

Palin has a time machine???

Oh gosh!

[Lorizael]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov
Palin has a time machine???

Oh gosh!

If so, I'm voting for her. I mean, seriously, how cool is that?

[Imran Siddiqui]

The only reason Pawlenty is even getting play here is because he was a rumored potential VP pick. Before that, who really thought he had a chance?

[Boris Godunov]

I was hoping McCain would pick Pawlenty for his running mate, as they would trump Dole/Kemp as the most boring ticket of recent elections.

Pawlenty is just another Jim Gilmore. A very mediocre and dull governor of a mid-sized state. He has zero shot of the nomination in 2012.

[Boris Godunov]

Another interesting question is: providing Obama does indeed win this year, when he runs for re-election in 2012, will he retain Biden as his running mate?

Biden will be 69 by that point, and it's considered extremely unlikely that he would pursue the Presidency again in 2016 at age 73. Since the Vice Presidency is a quick way to get annointed as the chosen successor to a sitting President, I wonder of Joe will bow out from the ticket, thus allowing Obama to choose another successor.

Would 2012 finally see the supposed "dream" ticket of Obama/Clinton, and thus set her up for a second and perhaps mostly unopposed crack at the Democratic nomination in 2016 if they won? Of course, she'd be 68 by then, so no spring chicken herself. But I suspect her lust for the Presidency will keep her going strong for a long, long time.