Why US Dollars rised over teh last day?

[KrazyHorse]

Where have I broken my word, cutie-pie?

[Kidlicious]

You're trying to negotiate a number to bet on. That's not necessary. I just need to know what the market thinks so I can decide whether or not I want to bet on that.

[Kidlicious]

Or you can simply admit that the market doesn't know any better than I do.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Kidicious
You're trying to negotiate a number to bet on. That's not necessary. I just need to know what the market thinks so I can decide whether or not I want to bet on that.

What the **** are you on about? If I give you the number I've pulled out of the market then by my own definition either side of that bet is 50% to win.



You're asking me to give you a coin flip. Why should I do that?

In other words, eat a ****.

The low number which the market predicts that there is a 50% chance oil futures will hit in the next 52 weeks is between 36 and 40$/bbl

And there is no reason I would want to take any action on that number at even odds.

Way to go, though, Kid. All you've demonstrated here is that you couldn't even come up with an estimate.

[KrazyHorse]

Just to be clear, the market predicts a 50% chance that oil at some point in the next 52 weeks will trade at or below ~38$/bbl. The 36-40 range is my estimate of model uncertainty due to limited liquidity in the options markets I'm able to get quotes on.

[Kidlicious]

You might have forgoten to carry the 1. I've read that economists have estimated that oil might go as low as $40/bbl. That's the most pessimistic forecasts. I would only bet that it would go to $40/bbl.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Kidicious
You might have forgoten to carry the 1. I've read that economists have estimated that oil might go as low as $40/bbl. That's the most pessimistic forecasts. I would only bet that it would go to $40/bbl.

Economists who prognosticate on the oil market are ****wits. Mainly because they ignore what the market actually says and instead inject their own opinions.

But good try, kiddo.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Economists who prognosticate on the oil market are ****wits. Mainly because they ignore what the market actually says and instead inject their own opinions.

But good try, kiddo.

Economists ignore what the market says. That too rich, just too rich.

[KrazyHorse]

Well, in all fairness, half of the economists you see on TV don't understand the options market well enough to get that prediction out in the first place.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Aeson
This would be a much better bet if you actually had a barrel of oil that Imran would have to hold for you

That'd be an interesting conversation I'd have with my apartment complex. So, yeah... it's just to settle an internet bet. No, really!

[KrazyHorse]

I'm still afraid that Kid doesn't understand the difference between a 1-year futures contract price and the median 52 week low