Why US Dollars rised over teh last day?

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse


So why didn't/don't you short oil futures or buy puts, then Kid? What are you still doing working some crappy job in OKC?

I'm not even claiming that I know what the price will be in the near future. I'm talking about a year from now.

Anyway, I don't care about that. I just wanted to see how sure you were about what you were talking about. And now I know. Thanx.

[KrazyHorse]

I'm not even claiming that I know what the price will be in the near future. I'm talking about a year from now.

A year from now?

Dear, the futures market in oil goes out like 10 years.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Kidicious
Anyway, I don't care about that. I just wanted to see how sure you were about what you were talking about. And now I know. Thanx.

Yet more tardedness, from the everlasting ****.

I don't know whether the market is overpriced or underpriced. I do know that the current market price represents the best guess of the best-informed people with the best reason to think clearly about the issue.

You, on the other hand, are the least informed person with no particular motivation to think at all.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
I do know that the current market price represents the best guess of the best-informed people with the best reason to think clearly about the issue.

People who don't believe that a bubble can exist in the oil market, agreed? So if you believe in these people than you are saying what price they expect is most likely correct, right? I'll say lower. Bet?

[Kidlicious]

Let's just say $60/bbl. I feel confident.

[Aeson]

Re: Aeson

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
You do realize that you can easily roll over futures positions, right? Oil always goes up and down. If you know that it's going to drop faster and farther than others think then it should be appropriable knowledge.

Certainly. But like I said, it's figuring out the right timeframe and entry. If I was investing long term, or had enough money to actually diversify my investments... I probably would have gone with long dated Puts on USO as part of my holdings. I was considering it at $110 while it rattled around there, especially after the second failure just under $120. But my timeframe was such that there was too high a chance that it wouldn't happen soon enough. And there was the risk that people like GS were right and Oil would go to $200.

(I've never played futures, which is why I'd have gone with options. I already "payed my dues" there. Not to mention my trading account didn't qualify for futures trading)

I used that quote like 5 days ago on CG, you bastard.

I don't doubt it. That quote gets thrown around a lot these days

As long as you are capable of restraining your leverage to suit your knowledge of the timeframe of the change you're talking about you should be able to stay solvent AND turn a pretty good profit...

Depends. In my situation I had very little to invest (just the fees on rolling over options would hurt), and a rather short timeframe to work with since I wanted the money to possibly buy some land in the Phils this winter. I surely could have taken less risk (leverage inherent to options), but it was gambling money.

I ended up going with Puts on Lehman. (Till Asher scared me off of that... bastard. )

Lehman going down was about the surest thing we'll ever get on the markets. Telegraphed pretty well. But even playing that could have wiped me out easy enough with just some bad luck on timing. With the short covering rallies it was still dangerous. Not to mention the possibility of a favorable buyout or Fed intervention.

I don't think it's terribly difficult to get ahead of the markets in specific instances. Just have to do some homework and increase your odds.

But it's still just odds (unless you have enough money/power to move the markets yourself... then it's frauds)

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Kidicious
Let's just say $60/bbl. I feel confident.

You want me to bet you even money that the price of oil at some point in the next 52 weeks is going to be under 60$/bbl? Are you stupid?

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse



You want me to bet you even money that the price of oil at some point in the next 52 weeks is going to be under 60$/bbl? Are you stupid?

The futures market has the price of oil going up.

[KrazyHorse]

It's almost as though you don't know what futures prices mean at all.

[KrazyHorse]

Wow. I can't believe the self-pwnership you just displayed, Kid.

[Kidlicious]

The settlement price for Nov09 is 68.67

[KrazyHorse]

Just so we don't lose that to Kid editing it to make himself look better:

Me: You want me to bet you even money that the price of oil at some point in the next 52 weeks is going to be under 60$/bbl? Are you stupid?

Kid: The futures market has the price of oil going up.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Kidicious
The settlement price for Nov09 is 68.67

Even if this were a median expectation price (which it is not; it is the risk adjusted mean price, which will be higher than the median given that there is significantly more possible upside on oil than downside) you are utterly confusing an American option with a European option.

[Kidlicious]

Can I buy a futures contract to sell oil at that price or not?

[KrazyHorse]

So now you want to enter into a futures contract? I thought you wanted to bet what the 52 week low would be?