Meanwhile, in the parallel universe where Hillary got nominated...

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Boris' Kenobi smackdown was a thing of beauty. I would add only that

1) An ARG poll of West Virginia voters, conducted Oct. 5-8, has just been released. This is the first poll conducted since the bailout crisis/market crash; it's also the first poll taken since the candidates began debating. And in it...drumroll please...Obama is up by 8 points. Looks like WV is in play!

2) Of the eight polls conducted of Virginia voters since the first debate, six, including the four most recent, show Obama ahead; five of those six have him ahead outside the poll's margin of error; two have him ahead by double-digits. RCP and 538.com have both moved Virginia from tossup to light blue.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
1) An ARG poll of West Virginia voters, conducted Oct. 5-8, has just been released. This is the first poll conducted since the bailout crisis/market crash; it's also the first poll taken since the candidates began debating. And in it...drumroll please...Obama is up by 8 points. Looks like WV is in play!

ARG is simply the most unreliable polling outfit out there. They suck. They do not weight their samples at all, which is completely stupid. That's why their polling is the most erratic in the business, and they have perhaps the worst track record imaginable when it comes to their polling matching actual election results. Throwing darts would be just as effective.

So I don't buy those WV numbers one bit. I think Obama is going to do much better in WV than many in the primaries predicted (there's no way he loses 60-40), but I don't think he's up at all, much less by 8 points.

[Bosh]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov


Why's that? Bill Clinton won Louisiana largely based on the African-American vote. As Ming pointed out, its extremely unlikely Hillary would benefit from a large AA turnout, given the tenor of the primaries.



It's in play now. Obama was up in the latest polls.



Obama currently is leading in Florida.



Obama currently has a small lead in Ohio.



Obama is leading by double digits in all of these states now.



Latest polls have Obama up 10-15. That's pretty sewn up.



Currently, Indiana is a dead heat. That means it's in play. And so is North Carolina, which Clinton would have no hope of winning. I also think Iowa would be a toss-up rather than solidly Obama. And Obama is winning Virginia--he's averaging a 4-5 pt lead there now. Clinton wouldn't be close.

Obama has also moved ahead in Nevada, and I don't think Clinton would be doing as well there. Nor in New Mexico.

You missed West Virginia. The most recent ARG poll has Obama ahead there. He probably won't win it, but I'm shocked to see him at least make it close.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Bosh
You missed West Virginia. The most recent ARG poll has Obama ahead there. He probably won't win it, but I'm shocked to see him at least make it close.

Uh... see the post right above yours.

[Bosh]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov


Uh... see the post right above yours.

Doh! Replied without refreshing the page. In any case, I think that Obama's polling with blue collar whites will be heading north in any case because of economic issues. But yeah, ARG is a bit loopy.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Btw, you guys hear about the ARG poll for West Virginia?!