Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Meanwhile, in the parallel universe where Hillary got nominated...

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #31
    Boris' Kenobi smackdown was a thing of beauty. I would add only that

    1) An ARG poll of West Virginia voters, conducted Oct. 5-8, has just been released. This is the first poll conducted since the bailout crisis/market crash; it's also the first poll taken since the candidates began debating. And in it...drumroll please...Obama is up by 8 points. Looks like WV is in play!

    2) Of the eight polls conducted of Virginia voters since the first debate, six, including the four most recent, show Obama ahead; five of those six have him ahead outside the poll's margin of error; two have him ahead by double-digits. RCP and 538.com have both moved Virginia from tossup to light blue.
    "I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George Carlin

    Comment


    • #32
      Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
      1) An ARG poll of West Virginia voters, conducted Oct. 5-8, has just been released. This is the first poll conducted since the bailout crisis/market crash; it's also the first poll taken since the candidates began debating. And in it...drumroll please...Obama is up by 8 points. Looks like WV is in play!
      ARG is simply the most unreliable polling outfit out there. They suck. They do not weight their samples at all, which is completely stupid. That's why their polling is the most erratic in the business, and they have perhaps the worst track record imaginable when it comes to their polling matching actual election results. Throwing darts would be just as effective.

      So I don't buy those WV numbers one bit. I think Obama is going to do much better in WV than many in the primaries predicted (there's no way he loses 60-40), but I don't think he's up at all, much less by 8 points.
      Tutto nel mondo è burla

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by Boris Godunov


        Why's that? Bill Clinton won Louisiana largely based on the African-American vote. As Ming pointed out, its extremely unlikely Hillary would benefit from a large AA turnout, given the tenor of the primaries.



        It's in play now. Obama was up in the latest polls.



        Obama currently is leading in Florida.



        Obama currently has a small lead in Ohio.



        Obama is leading by double digits in all of these states now.



        Latest polls have Obama up 10-15. That's pretty sewn up.



        Currently, Indiana is a dead heat. That means it's in play. And so is North Carolina, which Clinton would have no hope of winning. I also think Iowa would be a toss-up rather than solidly Obama. And Obama is winning Virginia--he's averaging a 4-5 pt lead there now. Clinton wouldn't be close.

        Obama has also moved ahead in Nevada, and I don't think Clinton would be doing as well there. Nor in New Mexico.
        You missed West Virginia. The most recent ARG poll has Obama ahead there. He probably won't win it, but I'm shocked to see him at least make it close.
        Stop Quoting Ben

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by Bosh
          You missed West Virginia. The most recent ARG poll has Obama ahead there. He probably won't win it, but I'm shocked to see him at least make it close.
          Uh... see the post right above yours.
          Tutto nel mondo è burla

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by Boris Godunov


            Uh... see the post right above yours.
            Doh! Replied without refreshing the page. In any case, I think that Obama's polling with blue collar whites will be heading north in any case because of economic issues. But yeah, ARG is a bit loopy.
            Stop Quoting Ben

            Comment


            • #36
              Btw, you guys hear about the ARG poll for West Virginia?!

              “I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
              - John 13:34-35 (NRSV)

              Comment

              Working...
              X