Tide Begins To Turn In Western Opinion on Gerogia

[Elok]

Originally posted by Arrian
The Georgians appear to have walked into a well-laid trap. They were baited.

This makes them stupid. It doesn't make Russia right.

-Arrian

It's a trap? Are you suggesting Georgian defenses can't repel firepower of Russian magnitude?

[Whoha]

Originally posted by Comrade Snuggles

Originally posted by Arrian
The Georgians appear to have walked into a well-laid trap. They were baited.

This makes them stupid. It doesn't make Russia right.

-Arrian

Except from the military analysis by NATO, Russia wasn't prepared to go to war. In fact, if the Georgians had been competent, they might have been able to stop the Russians from intervening, if they'd been able to grab the South end of the Rotki tunnel. Generally speaking, countries planning traps don't leave themselves open to such simple blocks.

The Rotki tunnel isn't the only way in. Russia had other passes(which admittedly would be snowed over during the winter) as well as their sealift, and airlift capacity. They'd have needed to destroy the tunnel, kill the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and hold on for about 6 weeks to delay the Russian ground response until next spring when they all promptly die. All of this does nothing to address the Russian Airforce of course.

[GePap]

Sealift and airlift????

S. Ossetia doesn't have a coast, nor does it have any significant airfields, and even i it did, you can;t airlift units into airfield your land forces don't hold. Che is correct about the Roki tunnel being the only good access: even if there are other roads, are those roads capable of supporting the movement of heavy armor?.

As for the idea that this was a trap. Well, even if we assume that the Russians looked blindly at S. Ossetian provocation in order to trigger some Georgian counteraction, Georgia's counteraction was as disproportionate as Russia's reaction to that. IN short, if it was a"trap," it was an obvious one and one that could have been easily avoided by someone with good judgement or even a modicum of common sense. Obviously both those things were lacking in the Georgian leadership.

[onodera]

Originally posted by Whoha


The Rotki tunnel isn't the only way in. Russia had other passes(which admittedly would be snowed over during the winter) as well as their sealift, and airlift capacity. They'd have needed to destroy the tunnel, kill the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and hold on for about 6 weeks to delay the Russian ground response until next spring when they all promptly die. All of this does nothing to address the Russian Airforce of course.

Yep, destroying the Roki tunnel would force us to strike from Abkhazia and Chechnya, which would admittedly slow down the counterassault, but would lead to our tanks entering Tbilisi and staying there.

[Whoha]

Originally posted by GePap
Sealift and airlift????

S. Ossetia doesn't have a coast.

Georgia does, and Russia used it.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Whoha


Georgia does, and Russia used it.

Russia didn't land any troops by sea, and even if one assume that the Russians wanted a pretext to intervene in South Ossetia, without the Roki tunnel they would have had to undertake military operations from outside S. Ossetia, which would have completely invalidated their political arguement behind their actions. Its impossible to claim that you are just moving to help your peacekeepers in a limited military incursion if you begin to to strike everywhere in the other country except where your peacekeepers were.

[Traianvs]

I thought this was all cleared up by now.

Russia baited the Georgians by supporting Ossetian insurgents. Saakasjvili saw the start of the Olympics as a good time to invade the unfaithful province and reclaim it (one of his policy points when he was elected in Georgia), ultimately hoping to gain international support and sympathy against teh evil Russian oppressor (which it is of course). Then he could have more leverage to join NATO and he would have gotten rid of Mother Rossya interfering constantly.

Bad gamble, because enough Eurosofties saw through it. Too bad the likes of McCain still have their blindfolds on

[Whoha]

They made an amphibious landing at Poti, more to the point that is the other breakaway region of Georgia, Abkhazia, which would more then give them pretext. Aside from the fact that the Tunnel is owned by Russia and an attack on that is an attack on them.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Traianvs
I thought this was all cleared up by now.

Apparently not. Apparently Western governments aren't buying that BS argument anymore.