Privately-funded rocket reaches orbit!

[KrazyHorse]

I think you're making this analysis too complicated. Most people in commercial space aren't doing exotic R&D. They're contracting out to Hughes to build them a satellite with a certain number of transponders on a standard bus, etc. I doubt you'd get much of a discount on a replacement.

This is nonsense.

[DanS]

Well, call up Hughes or EADS and ask them.

[KrazyHorse]

Why would I do that? I know some of what goes into readying a satellite for deployment, and the design and testing costs are ENORMOUS. Even for something using standard technology.

[DanS]

OK, so what are your assumed price reductions on a replacement?

[KrazyHorse]

At a guess, 30-50%

[DanS]

Seems awful high.

[KrazyHorse]

For new tech/scientific instrumentation it's probably > 90%

[DanS]

It wouldn't surprise me to see some of that with government satellites, but it seems like anybody private who isn't building a large constellation would seek to take a much smaller bite of design and R&D.

[KrazyHorse]

They can prefer what they want, but sat design and testing isn't easy.

[DanS]

Is your experience solely with US government satellites/probes or do you also have experience with commercial satellites?

[Dinner]

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=106304112

NPR just put up a nice little article about the visions some entrepreneurs have of creating a profitable space tourist industry. Much of it is still pie in the sky but it does show there is a will out there. What we'd really need to make space tourism affordable to the masses is to radically bring down the costs of space travel, yes, this rocket is much cheaper then the alternatives but it is still way, way to expensive. We'd need ships with engines powerful enough to reach orbit without all those expensive one use only booster rockets.

[KrazyHorse]

Is your experience solely with US government satellites/probes or do you also have experience with commercial satellites?

My direct experience, such as it is, is with scientific instrumentation.

But I do know people who have done work in commercial aerospace, and their experience isn't particularly different. They're a little less careful, but they still do the same sort of testing any time they change anything about the sat design.

[Provost Harrison]

Hmm?

1/4 = 25 percent.

1/10 = 10/1 value.

10/1 x 1/4 = 10/4 = 2.5

2/5 = 40 percent

2/5 x 10/1 = 20/5 = 4/1 or 4x value.

Of course NASA isn't quite at 100 percent, closer to about 98 percent.

I'm also assuming replacement costs = value of cargo.

I think you need to assess the cost of losing a satellite and how this figures as a cost of the total launch - and the time involved in launching a satellite if it is critical.