Hypothesis: Dems should hope that Obama loses

[Theben]

If the dems in question are liberal or moderate they better hope Obama wins. McCain will not appoint anything but conservatives to the high bench and then we'll have 9 right-wing SC justices, and be able to re-write the Constitution to serve their own ideological agendas.

An Obama victory can help restore the balance of judicial power in the SCOTUS, as well as in lower courts.

Also a McCain loss will help speed along the destruction of the wacko wing of the GOP. If McCain had picked a different VP this might not be the case, but Palin has made no bones about her subservience to the far right, and so tars McCain with that brush (assuming he ever was more moderate).

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Theben
Also a McCain loss will help speed along the destruction of the wacko wing of the GOP. If McCain had picked a different VP this might not be the case, but Palin has made no bones about her subservience to the far right, and so tars McCain with that brush (assuming he ever was more moderate).

What are you nuts?! If McCain loses, the far right will blame on the fact that McCain is a RINO (which is ridiculous, but plenty on the far right think that way) and will say that Palin was the only reason McCain even had a chance.

It is likely that the Republicans will try to go with someone further right (maybe even Palin) in 2012 because "going moderate" didn't win.

[Theben]

Yes, I had considered that before the Palin selection. But afterwards IMO it could just as easily reinforce the idea that McCain won ONLY b/c he picked a far right VP, considering her current "rockstar" status, I feel that's more plausible.

If he loses then it can be said that McCain's choice of a far righter alienated the moderates.

[GePap]

I would have to agree with Imran on this - Palin is a rockstar and if McCain wins or isn't blown away, evengelicals would see it as a triumph of one of their own (Palin). McCain would have to be crushed utterly (loss of at least 5% points) for anyone to claim that Palin hurt him and that it shows the weakness of the far right.

As for Palin's future, I am not as sold that she has some inevitable great future as a Republican leader.

[Ramo]

The future of the party is with the social conservatives in any case. The economic conservatives as we currently know them will probably be significantly diminished after universal health care is successfully passed. So the Huckabee/Palin wing ought to be more ascendant in the wake of a Democratic victory than loss. At the same time, demographic realities will constrain social conservative tendencies, so we ought to see a more moderate party overall. Ross Douhat and Reihan Salam have been writing some interesting stuff about the future of the GOP.

[MrFun]

Originally posted by Comrade Snuggles
It's hardly covert. From Ronnie talking about welfare queens to saying that history would have turned out better if Thurmond had won to defending the flag of slavery, the GOP has pretty much offended the vast majority of Black Americans. It's gonna take a long time to overcome that.

Those are, of course, a small number of examples.

But, with some exceptions, I would think that the majority of white Republicans have renounced racism today. You're referring to recent history, and this may have already changed with far less racist white Republicans (again, there are exceptions even today though).

[DanS]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
Re the Black-Catholic analogy: the GOP only succeeded in siphoning off Catholics from the Dems by combining an appeal with values and a covert appeal to racism

In my experience, the siphoning had nothing to do with racism. I do admit that my experience is not necessarily representative of the whole.

[DaShi]

Is DanS trying to form a completely new definition for DanSing?

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Comrade Snuggles
It's hardly covert. From Ronnie talking about welfare queens to saying that history would have turned out better if Thurmond had won to defending the flag of slavery, the GOP has pretty much offended the vast majority of Black Americans. It's gonna take a long time to overcome that.

Those are, of course, a small number of examples.

You said "overt racism of the GOP" itself, as a group, not "overt racism of some specific individuals within the GOP as evidenced by their Freudian slips." Tad of a difference.

[SlowwHand]

Would you call Joe Lieberman far-right? No? Odd that he and McCain get along so well.

[Theben]

Originally posted by MrFun
But, with some exceptions, I would think that the majority of white Republicans have renounced racism today. You're referring to recent history, and this may have already changed with far less racist white Republicans (again, there are exceptions even today though).

Define overt. They don't announce it thru public media but certainly among other white conservatives they'll openly say racist things.

[Jaguar]

Originally posted by Theben


Define overt. They don't announce it thru public media but certainly among other white conservatives they'll openly say racist things.

[Whoha]

Re: Hypothesis: Dems should hope that Obama loses

Originally posted by DanS
Here's a new type of post for Apolyton. Line up arguments for and against a hypothesis.

My first hypothesis is that the Dems should hope that Obama loses. If Obama wins and is a reasonably successful president, the black vote will revert more toward values or issues politics than identity politics. If the black vote splits more along values or issues lines, then the Dems will lose 5 or 6 percentage points of their support.

In support of this hypothesis, take a look at the Roman Catholic vote before and after JFK became president. The RC vote was unified behind JFK because RCs thought that they weren't being dealt-in on power in this country. Several decades later, an RC presidential candidate, John Kerry lost the RC vote because that was no longer a question.

The Democrat party is different than it used to be. I'd say that leaving labor high and dry was the determining factor for these more socially conservative voters to leave the Democrats.

[germanos]

Re: Hypothesis: Dems should hope that Obama loses



They should hope to loose because otherwise they would loose with a 5% larger margin the next time?

[Aeson]

I think the next pres is going to have a bad economy for the first year or two of their term. Should be picking well enough before the next elections that the pres can claim they fixed Bush's mess. (Even though for the most part it's just the economy's natural ebb and tide at work.)

If I'm wrong and the economy is bad throughout... we're in big trouble.