Hypothesis: Dems should hope that Obama loses

[Vanguard]

So, the argument is, black voters will stop voting Democratic because the Democrats got a black guy elected president?

And they will switch to Republicans because of the natural affinity between Republican ideology and their own socio-economic situation I suppose?

[DanS]

Originally posted by Vanguard
And they will switch to Republicans because of the natural affinity between Republican ideology and their own socio-economic situation I suppose?

Socio-economic situation and values. A large minority of African-Americans are not well suited to the Dem message, but they still vote Dem. What holds them to the Dems? Identity politics.

[DaShi]

A large minority? What supports this claim?

[DanS]

If you could point to a survey of African-Americans that shows that the vast majority are pro-choice and very few are pro-life, for example, that would definitely be a negative against my hypothesis.

[DaShi]

Prove it first. Then I'll tear it down. Now it's just a joke.

[DanS]

If you don't think detailing the negatives and positives of this hypothesis is a fun exercise, you can move along.

I have an open mind and would like to hear the negatives against the hypothesis.

[DaShi]

I will because I'm not going to do your work for you. I've pointed out the main flaws. Until you can find some support, this is just anti-dem masturbation (as if it wasn't anyway).

[DanS]

You do me a disservice, DaShi. I was thinking about identity politics in my rather large family and why people moved from one column to the other. I'm not anti-Dem at all.

[Jon Miller]

Originally posted by DanS
If you could point to a survey of African-Americans that shows that the vast majority are pro-choice and very few are pro-life, for example, that would definitely be a negative against my hypothesis.

While African Americans are more religious, this mostly doesn't extend to being pro-life for some reason.

JM

[DanS]

Doesn't it extend to pro-life? I have heard that it doesn't, but have never seen numbers from a survey, f.e.

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Jon Miller

Originally posted by DanS
If you could point to a survey of African-Americans that shows that the vast majority are pro-choice and very few are pro-life, for example, that would definitely be a negative against my hypothesis.

While African Americans are more religious, this mostly doesn't extend to being pro-life for some reason.

Among the poll's other findings about black voters:

* 57 percent qualified as "pro-life"--those who thought abortion should be illegal in all or most cases--while 36 percent thought abortion should be legal in at least the first trimester for any reason.

* 51 percent attend church at least weekly, while 19 percent never attend church.

* Nearly one-half, 48 percent, say they would rather send their children to a private or charter school of their choice if given the chance, while 45 percent said they would keep their children in public schools.

Still, even though Republicans generally are more supportive of school choice, the vast majority trusted Democrats more than Republicans on education by a 61-9 showing.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/m...18/ai_90439293

[-Jrabbit]

Sorry, but the hypothesis is asinine.

You NEVER "hope to" lose a presidential race. Ever. Period.
The power of incumbency trumps all.

If you can't anticipate and adjust to changes in voting trends, demographics and issue splits, you're just incompetent and should get out of politics.

[chequita guevara]

DanS, the main reason Blacks don't vote Republican is because of the overt racism of the GOP. Unless that changes, Obama's victory will not lead to more Blacks voting for the GOP.

[Jaguar]

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Comrade Snuggles
DanS, the main reason Blacks don't vote Republican is because of the overt racism of the GOP. Unless that changes, Obama's victory will not lead to more Blacks voting for the GOP.

Oh come on, at worst it could only be called covert. Even if you have the occasional Congressman calling Obama "uppity" etc., that doesn't have anything to do with the party platform.

If you're talking about policies which have the incidental effect of perpetuating racial divides I'm with you, but that doesn't add up to the normal definition of "racism." Then again, IIRC from other threads you do have a pretty wacky definition of racism to begin with.