Hypothesis: Dems should hope that Obama loses

[Jon Miller]

Originally posted by DanS
Doesn't it extend to pro-life? I have heard that it doesn't, but have never seen numbers from a survey, f.e.

My experience in attending some black churchs is that it doesn't extend to being pro-life.

It does extend to being anti-gay marriage though, in my experience.

JM

[MrFun]

Originally posted by Comrade Snuggles
DanS, the main reason Blacks don't vote Republican is because of the overt racism of the GOP. Unless that changes, Obama's victory will not lead to more Blacks voting for the GOP.

So prominent blacks such as Condaleeza Rice and Collin Powell are hopelessly in blind denial about their party's blatant racism?

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by MrFun
So prominent blacks such as Condaleeza Rice and Collin Powell are hopelessly in blind denial about their party's blatant racism?

Do you really expect him not to say that they aren't House ******s or something like that given what you know of him and his views?

[MrFun]

Aw come on, DinoDoc, let's not be TOO harsh and wait to see what Che has to say about my remark.


Seriously, there is SOME truth in Che's claim about racism being a persistent element in parts of the Republican party. But I still replied the way I did, because Che was overreaching beyond what is the truth and could appear to be oversimplifying the dynamics of the Republican party and its relations with different minority groups.

Take another example - I am gay and Democrat. I personally know of gay Republicans, but I often end up beating my head against the wall in frustration in trying to understand how they reconcile the two together because of the prevelance of homophobia within the Republican party, especially in regard to the ties with the religious right voting group.

[Imran Siddiqui]

I think its been touched on, but black social values tend to match the conservatives in the Republican Party far more than the liberals in the Democratic Party. However, economically, they are far more with the Dems. Basically their beliefs don't really fit within either Party, but LBJ and then the subsequent Southern strategy have had blacks run to the Democratic Party, as they were the less racist.

Perhaps they need a new party, where the back Democratic economic plans (or even go further), but are against gay marriage, pro-life, etc.

[GePap]

Since the 1970's the Republican party has done little to attract the black vote, and if the black vote hands Obama victory, I can't see the Republicans doing **** for recruitment.

So no, I think DanS is completely wrong about this - as long as blacks perceive the Republicans as overall hostile (did you guys look at the delegates at the Republican convention? How many members of the Congressional Black caucus are Republicans?) they won't really flock to the GOP. Just being religious and socially conservative (which blacks are) doesn't mean that they intend to vote for the GOP.

As for "identity politics", isn't expecting all evangelical christians to be Republicans also an example of identity politics? Of course it is. Its just saying that religious identity trumps ethnic identity.

[snoopy369]

Interestingly, my father had roughly the same (but for different reasons) idea in 1988. "The republicans should hope Dukakis wins." That's because he expected a recession, and thought Bush would be better off waiting four years (or someone else would come along).

I don't know if he was right or not, but it certainly proved interesting in hindsight...

[GePap]

If Obama wins he will certainly face some tough challenges, but I the last thing I want is four more years of irresponsible Republican presidential power grabbing.

[chequita guevara]

It's hardly covert. From Ronnie talking about welfare queens to saying that history would have turned out better if Thurmond had won to defending the flag of slavery, the GOP has pretty much offended the vast majority of Black Americans. It's gonna take a long time to overcome that.

Those are, of course, a small number of examples.

[Heraclitus]

I agree. The democrats should definitely hope McCain wins. If he realy is 4 more years of Bush like the dems try to paint him this may be a large enough shock combined with the looming economic crisis to push Repugs out of office for 20 years. It may even lead to a real left forming in the US and push the us to becoming more "European" in its foreign & social policy.

[Jon Miller]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

Perhaps they need a new party, where the back Democratic economic plans (or even go further), but are against gay marriage, pro-life, etc.

While I am in favor of gay marriage, I would love if such a party developed and they would definitely get my vote.

JM

[OneFootInTheGrave]

Originally posted by Lancer
The dems should hope Obama loses because the US economy might tank all the way and Obama (and therefore the dems) as a sitting pres might get some of the blame whereas if McCain gets in its all Repug blame, and you won't see a Repug in for 20+ years. The party is already losing its base some say, (as the older folks meet their maker) and a total economic tank would be around their necks for a generation after.

best reason for him losing...

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Re the Black-Catholic analogy: the GOP only succeeded in siphoning off Catholics from the Dems by combining an appeal with values and a covert appeal to racism; this was an integral part of GOP election strategy from 1968 forward. For the GOP to siphon off blacks, they'd have to do the same thing again, arguing that the Dems were ignoring blacks in favor of some group that blacks hated and felt undeserving of government largesse. Unless Obama developed some kind of massive program to subsidize small Korean businesses, its hard to see that happening.

[Heraclitus]

What about Hispanics?

[Arrian]

If Obama wins and is a reasonably successful president, the black vote will revert more toward values or issues politics than identity politics.

1. I don't think 1 "reasonably sucessful" black (multiracial, really) President means an end to identity politics.

2. Even if it does, why does this necessarily cost the Dems support? Might it not simply pull the Dems rightward on social issues? It is difficult to imagine a large number of black voters becoming Republicans.

3. What the **** do I know? I'm white and socially liberal.

-Arrian