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Hypothesis: Dems should hope that Obama loses

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  • #1

    Hypothesis: Dems should hope that Obama loses

    Here's a new type of post for Apolyton. Line up arguments for and against a hypothesis.

    My first hypothesis is that the Dems should hope that Obama loses. If Obama wins and is a reasonably successful president, the black vote will revert more toward values or issues politics than identity politics. If the black vote splits more along values or issues lines, then the Dems will lose 5 or 6 percentage points of their support.

    In support of this hypothesis, take a look at the Roman Catholic vote before and after JFK became president. The RC vote was unified behind JFK because RCs thought that they weren't being dealt-in on power in this country. Several decades later, an RC presidential candidate, John Kerry lost the RC vote because that was no longer a question.
    I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
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  • #2
    Hypothesis: Dems should hope that Obama loses, because we're up ****creek if he wins.

    Like that?
    Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
    "Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
    He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ Braindead

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    • #3
      No. I'm actually interested in this and think it's at least somewhat of a serious hypothesis.
      I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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      • #4
        What is this? Push polling?

        But ok, why not?

        Dems should hope Obama loses, because we already are up ****creek. And if Obama wins Republicans will try to blame him for it.
        VANGUARD

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        • #5
          Yup. I can easily see a situation where Obama gets handed a crappy economy, can't pay for any of the stuff he wants to do, and gets booted out.
          "You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran

          Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005

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          • #6
            The dems should hope Obama loses because the US economy might tank all the way and Obama (and therefore the dems) as a sitting pres might get some of the blame whereas if McCain gets in its all Repug blame, and you won't see a Repug in for 20+ years. The party is already losing its base some say, (as the older folks meet their maker) and a total economic tank would be around their necks for a generation after.
            Long time member @ Apolyton
            Civilization player since the dawn of time

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            • #7
              So you're looking at this as a what will win the party more votes than what is better for the country approach?

              But I'd say your first argument is flawed. If it was correct, then the Dems would have been losing 5-6% of their support in all previous elections, since there was no black candidate for them to vote for (hence they have to vote based on values and issues). If Obama wins because of identity politics, then all future elections should revert to that -5-6% level. If he doesn't, then it doesn't really matter. So there is nothing to lose.
              “As a lifelong member of the Columbia Business School community, I adhere to the principles of truth, integrity, and respect. I will not lie, cheat, steal, or tolerate those who do.”
              "Capitalism ho!"

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              • #8
                I am not even going to comment on the thought..
                On the ISDG 2012 team at the heart of CiviLIZation

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                • #9
                  What DanS is saying is that black voters feel marginalized in US politics, and that this helps the Democrats, even white ones, win votes. If Obama wins, they'll feel less marginalized, so the Democrats will do worse in the black vote.
                  "You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran

                  Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Lancer
                    The dems should hope Obama loses because the US economy might tank all the way and Obama (and therefore the dems) as a sitting pres might get some of the blame whereas if McCain gets in its all Repug blame, and you won't see a Repug in for 20+ years. The party is already losing its base some say, (as the older folks meet their maker) and a total economic tank would be around their necks for a generation after.
                    Isn't this more of the reason why repugs should want McCain to lose?
                    “As a lifelong member of the Columbia Business School community, I adhere to the principles of truth, integrity, and respect. I will not lie, cheat, steal, or tolerate those who do.”
                    "Capitalism ho!"

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      DaShi: The RC vote lined up consistently Dem before JFK. I would be interested in hearing that the RC vote was only, say, 60/40 Dem before JFK. That would definitely be a negative against my hypothesis.
                      I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Jaguar
                        What DanS is saying is that black voters feel marginalized in US politics, and that this helps the Democrats, even white ones, win votes. If Obama wins, they'll feel less marginalized, so the Democrats will do worse in the black vote.
                        But that doesn't follow that they will vote republican.
                        “As a lifelong member of the Columbia Business School community, I adhere to the principles of truth, integrity, and respect. I will not lie, cheat, steal, or tolerate those who do.”
                        "Capitalism ho!"

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by DaShi


                          Isn't this more of the reason why repugs should want McCain to lose?
                          Oh... yeah.
                          Long time member @ Apolyton
                          Civilization player since the dawn of time

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by DanS
                            DaShi: The RC vote lined up consistently Dem before JFK. I would be interested in hearing that the RC vote was only, say, 60/40 Dem before JFK. That would definitely be a negative against my hypothesis.
                            It's a poor analogy. You can't compare Black to Catholics.
                            “As a lifelong member of the Columbia Business School community, I adhere to the principles of truth, integrity, and respect. I will not lie, cheat, steal, or tolerate those who do.”
                            "Capitalism ho!"

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by DaShi
                              It's a poor analogy. You can't compare Black to Catholics.
                              Why not? The black vote is one of the few remaining categories where identity politics still reigns. The RC vote is an area where identity politics was strong, but is now very weak.
                              I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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