The Official 2008 Electoral College Prediction Thread

[Wiglaf]

But -- to use your analogy -- having the EC be both winner-take-all at the state level (so that 100% of a state's votes goes to the candidate who won 50.1% of the vote) and non-proportional is like having only the Senate and no House.

EC is proportional to population, though. Try again. It's not like the senate where every state gets 2 electoral votes..

[Guynemer]

It is not proportional to population, as demonstrated before with the California vs. the 25-least populous states analogy. The population is roughly equal, but the small states combined have roughly twice as many votes as California.


First post edited with lastest predictions.

[Wiglaf]

A little Federalist papers to educate you fools.

The influence of factious leaders may kindle a flame within their particular States, but will be unable to spread a general conflagration through the other States. A religious sect may degenerate into a political faction in a part of the Confederacy; but the variety of sects dispersed over the entire face of it must secure the national councils against any danger from that source. A rage for paper money, for an abolition of debts, for an equal division of property, or for any other improper or wicked project, will be less apt to pervade the whole body of the Union than a particular member of it; in the same proportion as such a malady is more likely to taint a particular county or district, than an entire State.

[snoopy369]

Originally posted by Wiglaf


EC is proportional to population, though. Try again. It's not like the senate where every state gets 2 electoral votes..

Um, EC is semi-proportional. States get a number of electoral votes equal to the number of congressional representatives they have (both in the House and Senate); therefore it does increase with population, but not perfectly proportionately.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Electoral_College

[Wiglaf]

Right. That's the whole point. Do you think I am suggesting the EC perfectly mirrors popular vote? WTF? The other guy, Rufus T. Gayfly, was saying it's "non-proportional " when in fact, it is partially proportional. It's a compromise.

[Asher]

Wiglaf, are you familiar with the concept of a ****ing awful argument?

[Unimatrix11]

You know what, Wiglaf: If You like Your system the way it is - fine. You know i am not gonna change it. Just encouraging You to maybe take a peek over the rim of Your plate and see how it´s done in what i´d call ´modern´ democracies and let You know, that i´d suspect 90% of the people in the world (who know the presidential election system of the US to a sufficient extent) would agree with me, when i say, what i did say in my first post. But, of course, i suspect You do not care about that at all...

Personally i think, no matter what, that a system, that allows for the minority to rule over the majority (and that is exactly what this system does - see 2000 - regardless of the candidates and who won), is one that needs to reform.

[Barnabas]

Electoral college blows

[fed1943]

Top laws are always fair because they themselves say what it is or
not fair.
Executive branch and Senate (and Court) are chosen by the States
and Representative House by citizens.
Is it a good system? Surely it is, because it works (remember what it
was done there just in two centuries).
Best regards,

[The Emperor Fabulous]

Poll: Obama crushing McCain in battlegrounds

Up 8 in Florida, 8 in Ohio, 15 in Pennsylvania

Last week's presidential debate bounced Barack Obama past majority support in three key swing states that have helped decide the last two elections.

The Democratic candidate has surpassed 50 percent in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, and he holds leads over Republican John McCain of eight to 15 points, according to a new Quinnipiac swing state poll.

In Florida, its Obama with support from 51 percent of voters to McCain's 43 percent. Ohio has it for Obama 50-42, and Pennsylvania gives Obama his larges lead 54-39, according to the poll. The poll reflects a small bounce compared to Obama's pre-debate numbers and reflects more voter confidence in his ability to handle the economy.

Gov. Sarah Palin's sagging favorability and more voter confidence in Sen. Barack Obama's ability to handle the economy are propelling the Democrat to wider likely voter leads over Republican John McCain in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.

Quinnipiac notes that no president has been elected since 1960 without winning two of those three swing states.

"It is difficult to find a modern competitive presidential race that has swung so dramatically, so quickly and so sharply this late in the campaign. In the last 20 days, Sen. Barack Obama has gone from seven points down to eight points up in Florida, while widening his leads to eight points in Ohio and 15 points in Pennsylvania," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Sen. John McCain has his work cut out for him if he is to win the presidency and there does not appear to be a role model for such a comeback in the last half century," Brown added.

[Bosh]

Don't have time to list up the EC right now, but I'll reiterate the popular vote claim I made back in JANUARY (for which I was much mocked at the time by people expecting Clinton and/or Romney to get nominated ): Obama over McCain by 5%.

[Asher]

The Democratic candidate has surpassed 50 percent in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, and he holds leads over Republican John McCain of eight to 15 points, according to a new Quinnipiac swing state poll.

This is obviously a lie. Pennsylvania is split! SPLIT.

[The Emperor Fabulous]

Real Clear Politics battleground averages

Colorado 50.0 45.0 Obama +5.0
Ohio 48.0 46.0 Obama +2.0
Florida 47.8 46.4 Obama +1.4
Pennsylvania 49.7 42.0 Obama +7.7
Missouri 45.8 49.0 McCain +3.2
Virginia 49.0 46.0 Obama +3.0

Pennsylvania:

RCP Average 09/21 - 09/29 -- 49.7 42.0 Obama +7.7
Quinnipiac 09/27 - 09/29 832 LV 54 39 Obama +15
Franklin & Marshall 09/23 - 09/28 767 RV 45 38 Obama +7
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 50 42 Obama +8
Morning Call 09/25 - 09/29 601 LV 49 41 Obama +8
SurveyUSA 09/23 - 09/24 1094 LV 50 44 Obama +6
Strategic Vision (R) 09/21 - 09/23 1200 LV 47 46 Obama +1
CNN/Time 09/21 - 09/23 730 LV 53 44 Obama +9

[Boris Godunov]

Mark my words.

Obama: 338 EVs
McCain: 200 EVs

Obama wins by 4-5% of the popular vote nationwide.

[Boris Godunov]

I'll add that IN, NC and MO will be extremely close, and GA surprisingly close as well.

The Democrats will emerge with 58 senate seats, not counting Lieberman, who'll get kicked to the curb in terms of committee chairmanships.