The Canadian Federal Election will probably be October 14th

[Victor Galis]

Originally posted by notyoueither
Does the man actually stand for anything and stick by it?

I believe he stands for trying to get a Conservative majority in Parliament... beyond that, maybe Afghanistan?

I was talking about "will probably be" on such and such date. It's not like Halloween or Christmas, or other elections.

Yes, Canada holds elections when there's a need for one, not on some arbitrary date.

Hardly. Jack Layton is a preferable candidate at the moment. At least he might actually do what he says he stands for.

Isn't that the problem with Layton though?

[Asher]

Originally posted by techumseh
How do you assess Harper's record on same sex marriage, Asher?

He hasn't done anything, which is how it should be. He's just pretended like he did something for the Christian right.

[Ninot]

My riding has by-elections right now, which is pretty damn annoying, since it means i'm going to be seeing posters from early august untill mid October

[Flubber]

Originally posted by techumseh
How do you assess Harper's record on same sex marriage, Asher?

He kept his promise on that one. I disagree with his position but he brought it to vote like he said he would.

I don't think same-sex marriage is really that much of an "issue" here anymore. Its here and it isn't going to change. Some righties may rail against it from time to time but I don't see why it would be an election issue.

After all what could the Liberals say "Stephen Harper opposes same sex marriage but plans to do nothing about it ?"

[Asher]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080901.wpoll0901/BNStory/Front/home

Harper Tories on the brink of majority, poll finds



BRIAN LAGHI

From Tuesday's Globe and Mail

September 1, 2008 at 10:21 PM EDT

OTTAWA — The Harper Conservatives will enter a federal election campaign with a polling lead that puts them within striking distance of winning a majority government, according to a new survey taken on the eve of an expected vote.

The new poll for The Globe and Mail-CTV News finds Canadian voters satisfied with the direction of the country and significantly more confident in the leadership abilities of the Tories and Prime Minister Stephen Harper than they are in those of his main rival, Stéphane Dion and the Liberals.

According to the poll, conducted by the Strategic Counsel, 37 per cent of Canadians would opt to vote for the Tories were an election to be held today, compared with 29 per cent for the Liberals, 17 per cent for the NDP and 9 per cent for the Green Party.

In the 2006 election, the Tories polled 36 per cent, compared with the Liberals' 30, the NDP's 18 and the Greens' 5.

“With these numbers, a majority is within the reach of the Conservatives, but not yet in their grasp,” said Peter Donolo of the Strategic Counsel. “I think that's the really important difference.”

The Tory gains are significant when compared with June, when scandals such as the Bernier affair left the two major parties statistically even in terms of voter support.

The Conservatives have built their lead on increased backing in British Columbia and parts of Ontario.

In areas of Ontario outside Toronto, they have turned the tables on the Liberals from the last election and now lead in popular support, 41 to 35.

The survey also finds that 45 per cent of Canadians believe it's time for a new government, down from 63 per cent in January, 2006, when voters threw the Paul Martin Liberals out of office.

“The number of people who believe the country is on the wrong track has declined,” Mr. Donolo said.

Canadians told pollsters the biggest issue facing the country is the economy, with 18 per cent saying it is the most pressing current concern. That's followed by health care at 15 per cent and then the environment at 14 per cent.

The survey shows that, of the major parties, the Conservatives are picked by 38 per cent of voters as the best able to manage the economy should there be a slowdown. The Liberals are picked by 27 per cent, the NDP by 8 per cent and the Greens by 3 per cent.

Mr. Harper's campaigners have already signalled they will run the campaign on their economic credentials, lashing out at the Liberal plan for a carbon tax, saying the plan would harm the economy.

In head-to-head comparisons, Mr. Harper is found by Canadians to lead Mr. Dion in a number of areas, including who is better to deal with the United States and the economy, and who offers the most positive vision of the country. Mr. Harper is also seen by 53 per cent of Canadians as the most decisive leader, compared with 17 per cent for Mr. Dion.

“The Conservatives would like this election to be about Harper versus Dion and leadership,” Mr. Donolo said.

Mr. Dion, on the other hand, must try to draw the votes of other left-of-centre voters, most of whom would opt for the Liberals as a second choice.

The Liberal Leader, said Mr. Donolo, will have to try to coax those voters away by arguing that the Liberals are the only way to prevent a Tory majority government.

If there is a silver lining for Mr. Dion, it is in Quebec, where both his and his party's appeal have ticked upward.

Of those Quebeckers surveyed, 26 per cent would opt for the Liberals, up five points from the last vote. The Tories, for their part, are down two points to 23 per cent, while the NDP has jumped four points to 12. The Bloc Québécois has lost eight points to 34.

Pollster Greg Lyle said Mr. Dion can maximize his chances by focusing on a Liberal advantage on the issue of compassion.

“That may already be paying off in the province of Quebec,” said Mr. Lyle, of Innovative Research Group Inc.

Mr. Lyle said the more robust Ontario numbers for the Tories probably stem from a fairly quiet summer that was free of controversy.

“There were lots of stories, but no coffee-talk stories,” he said.

On the matter of the Bloc Québécois drop, Mr. Lyle said Gilles Duceppe's flirtation with the Parti Québécois may have harmed the party and there have been few issues involving national unity that the BQ can capitalize on.

Mr. Lyle added, however, that the BQ may be able to make up lost ground by arguing that it is the only party that stands strictly for Quebec's interests.

The survey of 1,000 Canadians was conducted Aug. 25 to 31 and is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 95 per cent of the time.

[Bosh]

Prediction: Ben Kenobi will predict that the Tories will win every single riding in which things are even remotely close.

[notyoueither]

There have been a lot of wild-eyed predictions. I seem to recall a lot of more liberally minded people swearing that a Tory elected in Quebec was as likely as the second coming.

I'm sure many of them maintain Harper is the Anti-christ to this day.

[Ninot]

Actually, I know a lot of people who are separatist, but if they think the separatist cause is pretty much dead, they rather vote for Harper than a Liberal. Liberals are very much loved or despised here, whereas Conservatives are seen as acceptable alternatives.

[Winston]

The Canadian Federal Election will probably be October 14th

Hey, I think even if it's October 15th it'll be ok with most of us.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Ninot
Actually, I know a lot of people who are separatist, but if they think the separatist cause is pretty much dead, they rather vote for Harper than a Liberal. Liberals are very much loved or despised here, whereas Conservatives are seen as acceptable alternatives.

That's not what any poster here from Quebec was saying before the last election.

Back then it was unthinkable that any riding in Quebec would elect a Tory.

I tried to poiint out that the Tory they would be electing would not be a bible-belt, card-carrying Reformer. That didn't seem to matter.

[Ninot]

I don't believe I was one of those Quebecers

[Victor Galis]

I probably didn't post in that thread. Then again, having lived in the states a long time and having seen Republicans, the Tories just don't seem that bad even if I wouldn't really consider voting for them.

[Asher]

How soon til Dion is turfed?

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=764478

Half of Canadians choose Harper as best PM: poll

Dion third in leadership survey

OTTAWA -- Stephen Harper heads into the expected federal election as the preferred choice as prime minister, according to a new poll that is the latest survey to show a wide gap in attitudes toward the leaders of the governing Tories and opposition Liberals.

Asked who would make the best prime minister, exactly half of respondents in the poll of 1,003 Canadians chose Mr. Harper, followed by NDP leader Jack Layton at 31% and Liberal leader Stéphane Dion at 20%.

The Aug. 26-28 telephone survey was conducted by Ipsos Reid for Canwest News Service and Global National. It comes after weekend national polls that also showed Mr. Harper well ahead of Mr. Dion on leadership questions -- results that could explain the Conservative eagerness for an October vote.

An Angus Reid poll released Saturday had the Prime Minister leading the Liberal leader 45% to 10% when respondents were asked if the two were "strong and decisive" leaders. A Strategic Counsel poll released Tuesday showed 53% of Canadians considered Mr. Harper the most decisive leader, compared with 17% for Mr. Dion.

Ipsos Reid president Darrell Bricker said Mr. Dion's best chance of winning a general vote is to mount negative personal attacks, "to rough up Stephen Harper a bit."

He noted Mr. Harper's popularity extends across the country, except Atlantic Canada, where Mr. Layton held a slight 43-39 edge in the Ipsos Reid poll.

In addition, the Ipsos Reid survey found that no big campaign issue has emerged, with the environment (28%), health care (28%) and the economy (26%) in a virtual tie.

"If this election is going to be a referendum on leadership, Stephen Harper has a heck of an advantage," said Mr. Bricker.

Mr. Layton's relatively strong showing in the poll has him well placed to play a spoiler role, perhaps bleeding away left-of-centre support from the Liberals, said Mr. Bricker.

Mr. Layton beat the Liberal and Conservative leaders as being the most "sincerely committed to dealing with global warming," with 38% support, compared with 30% for Mr. Dion and 27% for Mr. Harper.

Mr. Bricker said that shows that Dion's Green Shift carbon tax proposal is not resonating with Canadians.

"His strength as being an advocate for the environment is clearly not cutting it at this stage."

The global warming question was one of 14 that probed leadership characteristics in an on-line portion of the poll of 1,005 Canadians.

Mr. Harper emerged ahead of Dion and Layton as someone who is best positioned to manage the country through tough economic times (50%), who has "what it takes" to lead Canada (47%) and who "has a vision of Canada that you can support" (43%).

"There has been a transition in people's attitudes towards Harper. Warming to him is probably the wrong thing to say. It's more that there's a rational acceptance of his strengths," said Mr. Bricker.

"It's not like it's Obama-mania, where they're all crazy about what he says about them."

Mr. Bricker said the poll suggests that Mr. Dion should campaign on the strength of his party as a team, or as a "government in waiting."

Mr. Harper's personal popularity does not translate into big gains on the electoral map that would either strengthen his minority or propel the Conservatives to a majority, because the party has failed to make in-roads in Quebec, where the Bloc Québécois remains strong, or in Ontario, Mr. Bricker said.

To win a majority, the Tories will have to chip away at Bloc support or they will have to sweep all of Ontario outside of downtown Toronto, said Mr. Bricker.

The poll suggests that Ontario and Quebec will likely emerge as the main campaign battlegrounds, he added.

"This will be a campaign run on buses, not on airplanes," said Mr. Bricker, "driving up and down the 401 or the Macdonald-Cartier freeway (between Windsor, Ont., and Quebec)."

The margin of error for the telephone and on-line surveys was 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Mr. Dion on Tuesday said he plans to propose extra breaks for farmers, truckers and fishermen to buffer the impact of fuel price hikes under the carbon tax proposal.

He said on Tuesday the new tax rebates will show "we have listened."

Mr. Dion plans to announce details today during Liberal caucus sessions on the proposal to impose a new tax on oil, diesel and other carbon-emitting fuels and to redistribute the revenue through across-the-board cuts in personal and business income tax.

The plan is the centrepiece of the official Opposition's campaign platform and has been the target of relentless attacks by Mr. Harper and his Conservative party since it was announced a few months ago.

[Asher]

Dion begins the negative campaign against Harper, using perhaps the most ridiculous and transparent attempts to discredit him that most people should dismiss outright...

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/490337

Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion previewed his election campaign strategy, accusing the Conservatives of betraying Canadians' trust and forcefully linking Prime Minister Stephen Harper to U.S. President George W. Bush.

"Stephen Harper wants to give George W. Bush a third term – in Ottawa," Dion jokingly told caucus colleagues yesterday in a speech during a meeting in Winnipeg.

If not Bush, perhaps Harper wants to revive the Tories who ran Ontario in the 1990s, he quipped. "Maybe it is to Mike Harris that he wants to give a third mandate in Ottawa."

In a refrain Canadians are likely to hear in the weeks ahead, Dion also said Harper's views are closer to Bush's than Republican presidential candidate, John McCain.

My eyes have rolled so much that it hurts.

What's more impressive is The Star's reader comments in response are heavily anti-Dion, and The Star is the left-leaning paper in the capital of Liberal country...

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/490337

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Asher
Dion begins the negative campaign against Harper, using perhaps the most ridiculous and transparent attempts to discredit him that most people should dismiss outright...

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/490337

Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion previewed his election campaign strategy, accusing the Conservatives of betraying Canadians' trust and forcefully linking Prime Minister Stephen Harper to U.S. President George W. Bush.

"Stephen Harper wants to give George W. Bush a third term – in Ottawa," Dion jokingly told caucus colleagues yesterday in a speech during a meeting in Winnipeg.

If not Bush, perhaps Harper wants to revive the Tories who ran Ontario in the 1990s, he quipped. "Maybe it is to Mike Harris that he wants to give a third mandate in Ottawa."

In a refrain Canadians are likely to hear in the weeks ahead, Dion also said Harper's views are closer to Bush's than Republican presidential candidate, John McCain.

My eyes have rolled so much that it hurts.

What's more impressive is The Star's reader comments in response are heavily anti-Dion, and The Star is the left-leaning paper in the capital of Liberal country...

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/490337

If thats the best Dion has coupled with his ill conceived Green shift, the only thing holding the Conservatives back from at least coming close to a majority will be well, the Conservatives. Is anyone buying into the carbon tax err I mean the green shift? All it is is a tax and redistribute policy from what I can see

The Liberals are quite frankly in disarray and I have yet to hear a good policy idea come from them lately. Plus I am quite uninspired by Dion's leadership.

The Conservatives need to try to position themselves more to the centre where the old PCs used to be. If they can once again be successfully branded by the other parties as that far-right bunch, no electoral success will come. So they need to muzzle or disavow some of the loonier far righty guys because if this election becomes about things like abortion orgay marriage, the Cons will lose ground. If instead Harper can tick the boxes on his 5 goals from last election and present a similar simple plan for a new government, he may well succeed.

Oh and I don't see Afghanistan resonating as a huge election issue. I find it difficult to see how the guys that sent the troops there can make too many points from the fact that they remain-- Harper has been in power how long? Would the Liberals argue that the plan was to cut and run after two years ? It will be interesting to see to see how that one plays out and how people spin things.