How the US blew their chance to get Russia as an ally.

[Propaganda]

Not to mention Soviet-style economics, which even western economics haven't fully grasped yet.

[Saras]

WB takes Belorussian stats and don't adjust them for the factors I mentioned - mostly because it's impossible to do precisely or in a consistent manner.

And yes, I know quite a bit about how the economy works there, the border is 15 minutes by car from my place plus there are plenty of Lithuanian businesspeople who try to do business there (export, services etc), but very VERY few want to have any seizable sizeable assets there due to COMPLETE arbitrariness of the authorities.

Imagine you have a construction permit for a shopping centre; it's valid for 3 years. 3 years is about the time needed for Belorussian builders to build it. After two and a half years you builders receive a letter from the office of the President to go and start building a new ice hockey hall instead. You arrive next morning to the empty site, and you can do NOTHING.

Another. Let's say you operate a chain of gas stations. you do fine, until there is a decree by the President that retailers have to sell diesel to the farmers for free during harvest time. And you're bust.

And another. Let's say you invest into a mobile telephony company, roll out your network, and the President decrees that 1/2 of your shares now belong to the ministry of communications, thank you very much.

[Saras]

Originally posted by Propaganda
Not to mention Soviet-style economics, which even western economics haven't fully grasped yet.

There really is no such thing as Soviet style "economics", just an arbitrary, administrative machine to allocate resources (very badly) across the country.

[Propaganda]

Originally posted by Saras
WB takes Belorussian stats and don't adjust them for the factors I mentioned - mostly because it's impossible to do precisely or in a consistent manner.

And yes, I know quite a bit about how the economy works there, the border is 15 minutes by car from my place plus there are plenty of Lithuanian businesspeople who try to do business there (export, services etc), but very VERY few want to have any seizable sizeable assets there due to COMPLETE arbitrariness of the authorities.

Imagine you have a construction permit for a shopping centre; it's valid for 3 years. 3 years is about the time needed for Belorussian builders to build it. After two and a half years you builders receive a letter from the office of the President to go and start building a new ice hockey hall instead. You arrive next morning to the empty site, and you can do NOTHING.

Another. Let's say you operate a chain of gas stations. you do fine, until there is a decree by the President that retailers have to sell diesel to the farmers for free during harvest time. And you're bust.

And another. Let's say you invest into a mobile telephony company, roll out your network, and the President decrees that 1/2 of your shares now belong to the ministry of communications, thank you very much.

I understand what you are saying, but the premise as I see it is that, if Belarus eases restrictions, but still keeps hold of valuable assets and does not permit capital flight, i.e. China, it would most likely soak up considerable capital, more so than Russia, comparatively-speaking.

[Saras]

And end up like china, with a secret toxic pile of bad bank debt the size of national FX reserves? Thank you, we'd rather have long-term prosperous neighbours.

[Propaganda]

Originally posted by Saras


There really is no such thing as Soviet style "economics", just an arbitrary, administrative machine to allocate resources (very badly) across the country.

Nonetheless, it is hard to depict the standard of living in a command economy, if using "free market" calculations, as many factors are involved that cannot be appropriately calculated using current methods.

[Propaganda]

Originally posted by Saras
And end up like china, with a secret toxic pile of bad bank debt the size of national FX reserves? Thank you, we'd rather have long-term prosperous neighbours.

Belarus is shrewd in its style; it learns its mistakes from its immediate neighbors, i.e. Ukraine, and Russia.

It has a very developed industrial base, and can diversify and grow in its potential, so its long-term prospects look good thus far.

[Saras]

I actually agree, they've got great potential. I'm keeping an eye on it, sadly, Minsk real estate is already rather pricey But equity opportunities there, should there be some sort of transformation into a semi-normally functioning country, will be unbelievable.

[Propaganda]

Now that we agree, can Russia invade Lithuania already?

[Saras]

What OOB?

[rmsharpe]

Originally posted by DanS
Not that I've heard.

Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Estonia, Hungary, etc. are all knocking on the door of the 1st world, less than 20 years after communism.

Russia is one of the exceptions, despite its recent resurgence due to rises in commodities prices.

Yes, some ex-communist countries are doing very well.

Slovenia now has a PPP GDP per capita income exceeding that of New Zealand and Israel. The same applies for the Czech Republic over Portugal.

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia all have GDP growth rates exceeding 7%. While they may still be relatively middle-income compared to high-income countries like the U.S., Japan, Germany, etc., they're doing tremendously well.

It's no surprise to anyone with some sense that the communist party hasn't won any elections in those countries since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

[rmsharpe]

Also, nobody has mentioned thus far that when state assets were 'privatized' they were sold for a fraction of their cost to members of the CPSU.

So instead of having goons that were protected by a bloated bureaucracy, you had goons that weren't protected and Russia's economy collapsed.

Don't blame us for your mistakes, Putinistas.

[Saras]

Originally posted by rmsharpe
It's no surprise to anyone with some sense that the communist party hasn't won any elections in those countries since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Ehmm... that would not be entirely correct

[onodera]

Originally posted by rmsharpe
Also, nobody has mentioned thus far that when state assets were 'privatized' they were sold for a fraction of their cost to members of the CPSU.

Like Khodorkovsky, for example. That's why people support renationalisation here.
Also, being a member of CPSU doesn't mean anything. That was like being a Rep or a Dem in the US.

[Saras]

Originally posted by onodera

Also, being a member of CPSU doesn't mean anything. That was like being a Rep or a Dem in the US.

Come on, you know it's not true.