How the US blew their chance to get Russia as an ally.

[Saras]

Re: Re: Re: How the US blew their chance to get Russia as an ally.

Originally posted by Oerdin
Given the amount of election fraud, how the political system has been rigged, and how the media has been brought under defacto Kremlin control it is hard to call Russia a democracy these days. It's pretty much a pseudo dictatorship which goes through periodic farse elections much like Egypt.

I think what's even sadder - and scarier - is that the majority support Putin. I can't really attribute this to the media - Kremlin directly controls only TV (of course THE most important media in Russia, but let's get our facts straight unlike some), while papers, radio and of course the internet is pretty much open/free - albeit operating under constant anxiety of having to talk to Fire Safety, be accused of extremism (and banned, as per law), tax department etc, or the "Maski Show", as they say in Russia.

Case in point - onodera. Guy lives in Moscow, a bustling international metropolis, read the Exile , works at Unicredit - an Italian bank, and reads international news websites. He thinks Putin is second best to Stalin as far as Russian leaders go. I mean, if a guy like him sincerely believes this, what to expect of a sysadmin (or whatever Serioga does) in Omsk who votes Communist, or anybody else?

I find it hard to explain, and it puzzles me to no end. We are really close to them geographically, and for all the huffing and puffing of the West, I give the probability of direct, immediate and sustained NATO military action and assistance in case of a Russian (direct or by proxy, as in Georgia) takeover at about 70%. I thus believe that we should change the way Russians think without compromising anything we value. Yes, tall order, but much better and safer than marching on Moscow.

Is it some sort of pan-Russian sense of being cheated out of something that is "theirs"? Did we really rub it in too much after they "lost" the cold war (I don't believe we did)? Are they teh eeevil?

I am convinced the Russian people are in fact one of the principal victors of the Cold War, and Russian people are that wars unsung heroes - but they don't think so themselves, and elected a guy who calls the collapse of USSR "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the XX century" (did he forget WWII?). And now the govenrment/powers that be really don't t need propaganda anymore because they all will volunteer for whatever Putin/Medvedev says.

Wtf?

[germanos]

Originally posted by onodera
I think any politician’s rise to power is driven by his or her lust for power.

That's a pretty cinical attitude. Does it include that all politicians want this power for their own profit?

1989-1993 is a one big WTF period of Russian history. I still cannot comprehend it completely.

Neither can I . Actually I had to check the timetable after I made my post.

The second one was.

Would this be the 1993 coup against Yelstin?

You might be right, the USA probably expected Russia to fragment further (which it nearly did).

What timeframe are we speaking of? The 1991 coup against Gorbachev or the one against Yeltsin? I guess the latter since before Gorbachev was desposed there was no sign the CCCP itself would disintegrate. (while the Soviet bloc/Warsaw pact certainly did. But that was IMO a good thing, and certainly the populace over there thought so.)

I don’t consider the 1993 coup an election.

I was referring to Yelstin's 1991 election.

Actually, Zyuganov won. Even with large-scale electoral fraud, Yeltsin barely managed to scrape up enough votes to win in the second rounf.

OK, Yeltsin stole the 1996 elections. More bad to him.

Dating back to the Imperial times. Do you remember how the WWI started?

I don't remember, but I do have some knowledge on the origins of WW1 . In any case, my point still stands. The Soviet Union (or Stalin, depending on your point of view) lost their 'alliance' with Serbia in Tito's Yougoslavia. A 50 year rift is enough for me to forfeit any claim on a historical alliance. Anyone is free to live in the past, but it won't do them any good.

It [Russians love with the USA] was true in the 70’s as well. I can’t say that about the 60’s, as they were the hottest part of the Cold War.

You have got to be kidding! I'm willing to accept your claim with regard to the 80's, but to include the 70's and possibly 60's as well will require some evidence.

Yeah. JS would’ve cheated the US out of their money. But back then the Red Flower was still blooming, and accepting it would mean accepting your second place, which would stop the spreading of the red idea.

Yeltsin would have done the same thing.
The problem is not that nobody wants to give you ' Marshall-aid', but that there's nobody trustworthy to accept it.

[Kidlicious]

No one in the US wants to give aid to Russia.

[Arrian]

No one is a bit much. The point that makes sense is that in 1991-2, coming out of a recession, getting enough people to support aid (massive, MP-style aid) to Russia would've been hard.

There were people in the US who wanted to do it.

-Arrian

[onodera]

Originally posted by germanos
Would this be the 1993 coup against Yelstin?

No, the 1993 coup by Yeltsin.

Originally posted by germanos Yeltsin would have done the same thing.
The problem is not that nobody wants to give you ' Marshall-aid', but that there's nobody trustworthy to accept it.

[Saras]

Re: Re: Re: How the US blew their chance to get Russia as an ally.

Originally posted by Oerdin
Once the economy stopped going through the post Soviet implosion reforms stopped thus insuring Russia lagged far behind every other old Eastern block state except Belarus which didn't bother doing any reforms and so has one of the lowest standards of living in Europe. Now Russia is going to be facing some serious capital flight issues which are going to dramatically increase capital borrowing costs because Putin is trying to make his own private fiefdom driving out foreigners and even Russian businessmen who don't support his iron grip on power.

Reform schmeform. You really can't have a liberal capitalist society without a functioning law enforcement, impartial judiciary and vigorously enforced property rights and contracts. Which Russia, ironically, only got close to once Putin came to power (albeit rather arbitrarily applied...).

[Propaganda]

Re: Re: Re: How the US blew their chance to get Russia as an ally.

Originally posted by Oerdin


Once the economy stopped going through the post Soviet implosion reforms stopped thus insuring Russia lagged far behind every other old Eastern block state except Belarus which didn't bother doing any reforms and so has one of the lowest standards of living in Europe.

Belarus has been highly successful in attaining its goals, specifically in attaining one of the lowest unemployment and hunger rates in the CIS and Eastern Europe, not to mention successful campaigns against corruption, drastically declining poverty rates, strong income increases, and strong growth rates, and hell, it is even becoming attractive for foreign investors, even with strict regulation of the economy.

Considering what resources they have at hand, I think they are quite successful.

[Propaganda]

By the way, Belarus did make drastic reforms until 1996, where it saw its GDP decrease drastically, and following the crisis, they curtailed reforms and retreated to Soviet central planning under Lukashenko, who managed to lead Belarus to strong growth.

[Saras]

Prop, I'm wandering where are you getting these fairytales?

[Propaganda]

IMF and World Bank statistics, maybe?

[Propaganda]

Here is the link I have bookmarked....
lhttp://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTE...328431,00.html

[Saras]

Bad link.

Anyway, statistics might show you growth, but given the fact that the currency is neither freely convertible nor is capital export free the stats are meaningless.

And foreign investments in Belarus don't make me laugh. Just ask Baltika brewery.

[Propaganda]

Originally posted by Saras
Bad link.

Anyway, statistics might show you growth, but given the fact that the currency is neither freely convertible nor is capital export free the stats are meaningless.

And foreign investments in Belarus don't make me laugh. Just ask Baltika brewery.

So I take it what you said before is meaningless too?

By the way, here is a working link to World Bank statistics...

http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/BELARUSEXTN/0,,contentMDK:20629010~menuPK:328439~pagePK:141137~piPK:141127~theSitePK:328431,00.html

EDIT: ****, link still doesn't ****ing work, so look for the information yourself.

[Saras]

What I said when?

[Propaganda]

So you think you know more about the Belorrussian economy that World Bank economists?