Do you actually understand the Russian-Georgian conflict?

[Aeson]

I just don't get why the rest of the US isn't supporting our own state... Georgia. Also, I have a vague recollection that Imran may be from there, so maybe not all of it should be saved from the Russians? But there must be something worth fighting for there... otherwise why are we so high on this Lincoln fellow for keeping them in the Union?

Also I don't understand what beef the Russians have with Georgia in particular, you'd think they'd be after Alaska, or possibly Florida... or at least Hawaii (it's very nice there). Is this akin to the Communists "island hopping" their way to the US capitol? It also doesn't make any sense that a SOUTHERN state would oppose SECESSION. Have they really been so Yankee'fied?

I would hope my friends here at Poly would create more threads to explain the whole thing to me. Thank you.

[MOBIUS]

Originally posted by VJ
now go back to explaining how you know chinese domestic politics much better than people who live in taiwan and are the first person to realize that beijing olympics should be boycotted, 7 years after the time people decided in what country should these olympics be held

wtf are you gibbering on about!!???

That's a vivid imagination you are exhibiting there - just like most of your posts!

[Lonestar]

Originally posted by Tuberski
I was wondering if Atlanta was going to burn again.

ACK!

I had a coworker who asked about that.

I had an image of the Russians being led by Zombie-Sherman.

[Chemical Ollie]

Geogia has now learned the hard way that using Russian tactics against rebellious civilians is not a good idea if those rebellious civilians happen to have Russian passports.

[Victor Galis]

Originally posted by Tuberski
I was wondering if Atlanta was going to burn again.

ACK!

If only

BTW, has anyone compared Putin or Medvedev to Hitler annexing the Sudetenland yet? On Poly, I mean; I'm sure Godwinization has happened somewhere online by now.

I've considered the option in my mind. The parallels are stronger here than in the usual debate. Now I'm not going to claim perfect knowledge of the area, but it looks like from looking at the map that there's a mountain range between Georgia and Russia. Don't know how much of a benefit they'd offer the defenders, but I imagine it's non-trivial.

S. Ossetia is on the Georgian side of the mountains and connected by tunnel to Russia. If Russia controls S. Ossetia, it can freely move troops through the mountains and roll into Georgia without serious natural obstacles. If they don't control that tunnel, they can't. Similarly, losing the Sudetenland made the Czechs much less able to defend their borders against Nazi agression.

[Victor Galis]

As to understanding the conflict, it's not so tough:

Russia has been weak since the breakup of the Soviet Union. Nationalists feel humiliated. NATO's taken in several former parts of the Soviet Union, and was possibly considering taking Georgia.

Georgia is a small state on Russia's border that's pro-West and essentially upsetting the Russians by not being in their sphere of influence like Kazkhstan or Belarus.

Now... as for the "immediate cause" (read: excuse), Georgia contains two enclaves of pro-Russian people. These enclaves are no doubt a result of Soviet resettlement of Russians into conquered regions during the Soviet era (they did this to Moldova too). These enclaves contain Russian "peacekeepers." These "peacekeepers" and neighboring Georgian troops never got along.

Now for the fun part: Depending on who you believe: (The Georgians) Russian peacekeepers have been making a nuissance of themselves and fired on Georgian positions. The Georgians retaliated by invading S. Ossetia. No doubt they hoped to throw the Russians out and seal up the tunnel into Russia before the Russians reacted. (The Russians) Georgian forces launched an unprovoked invasion of S. Ossetia destroyed the capital and attempted to displace (realistic version) or exterminate (rabid nationalist version) Russian sympathizers.

Russia immediately responded by reinforcing the region and throwing Georgian troops out. Then they started bombing the rest of the country and now they've pushed south towards Gori (outside the contested region). At this point, it's not clear if they mean to invade all of Georgia, oust its president, or just cripple the Georgian military and humiliate it.

Depending on who actually started this... News seems to imply the Georgians escalated from the low-intensity conflict it's been for awhile. On the other hand it's possible that the Russian have been stepping up provocations to try to get exactly that response. Evidence for that is the very rapid Russian response, almost like they were expecting something to happen there now. Maybe they were always prepared for that... who knows.

Now the timing for Georgia is actually terrible. The US is busy in Iraq and Afghanistan and Americans don't want more foreign adventures. Bush is a lame duck, and was actually at the Olympics when this happened. In a few months, there'd be a US president with some sort of authority to do something. Bush... not so much.

On the other hand, it's quite possible that the Georgians miscalculated horribly thought their 2,000 men in Iraq would buy them significant US support and decided to start something before Bush was replaced by someone else who wouldn't be as grateful for the help in Iraq. If this is the case... wow, talk about screwing up big.

Ok, so that about sums up what I know and think about this conflict.

[Victor Galis]

Originally posted by Elok
Well, that's quite diplomatic. I'm sure it will lead to much rational and productive discussion.

Well, assuming Russia is willing to engage in such discussion, it will probably happen behind the scenes and will either involve selling out Georgia for something the Russians then don't deliver on, or giving the Russians something so that they'll back off somewhat.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Victor Galis
Now... as for the "immediate cause" (read: excuse), Georgia contains two enclaves of pro-Russian people. These enclaves are no doubt a result of Soviet resettlement of Russians into conquered regions during the Soviet era (they did this to Moldova too). These enclaves contain Russian "peacekeepers." These "peacekeepers" and neighboring Georgian troops never got along.

Wrong on this count. The Ossetians and the Abkhaz are not Russians, they are distinct groups in the Caucauses, much like the Chechens or Georgians. Both of these groups (neither Russian nor Georgian) were made part of the Soviet Republic of Georgia during Soviet times. Early in Soviet times Abkhazia had its own administrative area, but this was joined to Georgia in the late 20's, early 30's. The Ossetians sided with the Russians during the civil war, and helped the Bolsheviks end the Menshivik rule over Georgia.

There is no love lost between these groups. When the Soviet Union collapsed, both the Abkhaz and Ossetians attempted to break free from the newly independent state of Georgia. BY late '92 a cease-fire agreement was signed, creating a mixed Russian-Georgian - and separitist peacekeeping force for both regions.

Now for the fun part: Depending on who you believe: (The Georgians) Russian peacekeepers have been making a nuissance of themselves and fired on Georgian positions.

No one has accused Russian forces of being involved in the original shooting. These clashes began earlier in the week, between S. Ossetian forces and Georgian forces, not Russian forces. The Russians claimed that their peacekeepers came under Georgian attack and that is why they moved additional forces in, as well as to "keep the peace."

[Victor Galis]

Originally posted by GePap

...

I guess I stand corrected on those counts. At any rate, the actual facts of the situation in the area probably serve as excuses for the real geopolitical machinations of the powers involved.

edit: Also, I consider S. Ossetian separatists to essentially be Russian pawns whether or not they wear Russian uniforms. I suppose calling them Russian forces is misleading though.

I'm almost certain that this whole thing is an exercise in Russia trying to prove it is still a power. How far it will go is uncertain still.

I have trouble believing Putin cares about the plight of the poor S. Ossetians.

[FrostyBoy]

I'd just like to point out that I don't believe for a second that America would get itself involved. I don't think it's in US Government interest to get on Russia's bad side.

The best the west can do is pressure a ceasefire. Then tell Georgia to stop doing retarded things.

[SlowwHand]

Originally posted by FrostyBoy
I'd just like to point out that I don't believe for a second that America would get itself involved. I don't think it's in US Government interest to get on Russia's bad side.

The best the west can do is pressure a ceasefire. Then tell Georgia to stop doing retarded things.

Really?

U.S. tells Russia to halt Georgia conflict

By Matt Robinson
1 hour, 45 minutes ago

TBILISI (Reuters) - U.S. President George W. Bush told Russia on Monday to end its armed conflict with Georgia after Moscow's forces advanced deeper into its pro-Western neighbor's territory, ignoring Western pleas to halt.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Victor Galis
If only

Why do you want one of the few (only?) civilized areas in the South to burn? Martin Luther King, Jr. would be sad .

[FrostyBoy]

Originally posted by SlowwHand


Really?

Yeah, I read that, Bush is all talk and no play and it's going to stay that way with regards to Russia.

At most, the west will send aid to Georgians. Disrupting Russia's plan.

[Traianvs]

Originally posted by SlowwHand


Really?

Every commentator agrees Bush has not spoken out. He doesn't have the power to. At the moment the US needs Russia more than vice versa, such as in the case of Iran for example.

[Victor Galis]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui


Why do you want one of the few (only?) civilized areas in the South to burn? Martin Luther King, Jr. would be sad .

So it can be rebuilt as a city and not some haphazard collection of suburbs. I had the great misfortune of spending half my life there