if Obama was a white man...

[Theben]

Another vote for charisma over race in determining Obama's current standing. He's not the 1st black person to run for president.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Why can't it be both? He wouldn't have gotten this without either.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui


Exactly. And really, a lot of Presidential primary campaigning is about building up momentum. I think if Obama wasn't black, he wouldn't have gotten the black vote in South Carolina from the Clintons and the ball never would have gotten rolling.

As she was married to someone called by some black leaders as "the first black President", you had to have a black person to break that lock.

I think you are assuming that Clinton would get quite a lot of the black vote despite the fact that Obama is much more Charismatic than she is. Why wouldn't black voters be as drawn to him as much as white voters?

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Kidicious
I think you are assuming that Clinton would get quite a lot of the black vote despite the fact that Obama is much more Charismatic than she is. Why wouldn't black voters be as drawn to him as much as white voters?

Um... because blacks REALLY loved her husband? Hell, one can say Edwards was more charismatic than Clinton, but it is quite obvious that blacks would have broken decisively for Clinton in that one-on-one.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui


Um... because blacks REALLY loved her husband? Hell, one can say Edwards was more charismatic than Clinton, but it is quite obvious that blacks would have broken decisively for Clinton in that one-on-one.

They didn't love him as much as if he were actually black so not actually that much.

[Edan]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui


Um... because blacks REALLY loved her husband? Hell, one can say Edwards was more charismatic than Clinton, but it is quite obvious that blacks would have broken decisively for Clinton in that one-on-one.

Yeah. IIRC , polls showed her dominating the black vote until Obama started winning and it became clear he could be viable.

[Imran Siddiqui]

I think it was after Iowa that the shift happened. Most black voters weren't sure if Obama was really a viable candidate, but after he showed he could win a primary, they flocked to him.

After all, plenty of charismatic white guys won early primaries but couldn't keep it going. Obama was able to get the black vote on his side and continue his run to the nomination.

[Impaler[WrG]]

A hypothetical head to head between Clinton and Wbama (white Obama) would have played out better for Wbama in the early races as he would easily have absorbed all the Edwards supporters (assuming he never ran) winning Iowa and New Hampshire. South Carolina might have been a come-back for Clinton but she would then have been eliminated Super Tuesday.

If we put Wbama in the large field of other Dems who started the race he might have failed to catch fire due to reduced media attention and might have faded like Edwards leaving Clinton to win Super Tuesday.

[Wiglaf]

Originally posted by Jaguar
Obama's fame and success come from his public speaking ability, not his skin color. When he gave that speech back in 2004, people were impressed with his charisma and speaking ability. They weren't saying "HAY GUYZ LOOK HE'S BLACK."
.

The list of people who gave "impressive/charismatic" speeches at the national conventions is pretty long. Try again. The combination of being black AND articulate is so amazing to people that he can apparently overcome having absolutely no qualifications whatsoever.

The democratic nominees are each pathetic, only McCain has earned his position through sacrifice and hard work.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Wiglaf
The democratic nominees are each pathetic, only McCain has earned his position through sacrifice and hard work.

Do you have any idea how many votes he missed?

[Deity Dude]

I didn't read the whole thread so if this was already pointed out excuse me but...

Obama is half white.

[Wiglaf]

Originally posted by Kidicious


Do you have any idea how many votes he missed?

Stop being coy, either say something useful or get out.

[Riesstiu IV]

Originally posted by Deity Dude
I didn't read the whole thread so if this was already pointed out excuse me but...

Obama is half white.

The correct term is mulatto or colored. Darkie also works.

[Ramo]

GePap, to spell things out some more, Obama is helped by his skin color among black people, but he also is hurt by his skin color among other ethnic groups, particularly white Southern Baptists (again, look at the spread in the deep South). Combined with media attention, this is a net plus, but not one that's decisive in any particular way.

The main influence this has is eliminating what would've been Clinton's major ace in the hole, the black vote - which would've been earned primarily because of who she was married to, not her own merits.

Young, charismatic guys typically do well in Democratic politics. That's why JFK beat LBJ, why RFK would've beaten Humphrey, and why Hart nearly beat Mondale. And that's why Ferraro's statements were dumb and offensive.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Ramo
GePap, to spell things out some more, Obama is helped by his skin color among black people, but he also is hurt by his skin color among other ethnic groups, particularly white Southern Baptists (again, look at the spread in the deep South). Combined with media attention, this is a net plus, but not one that's decisive in any particular way.

The main influence this has is eliminating what would've been Clinton's major ace in the hole, the black vote - which would've been earned primarily because of who she was married to, not her own merits.

Young, charismatic guys typically do well in Democratic politics. That's why JFK beat LBJ, why RFK would've beaten Humphrey, and why Hart nearly beat Mondale. And that's why Ferraro's statements were dumb and offensive.

Except that LBJ, Mondale, and Humphrey were not Hillary Clinton.

All those contests you named were younger white guy vs. older white guy.

Here we have a race between the first viable female candidate who also happened to be First Lady and married to one of the most popular politicians of the day VS. the first viable black candidate.

So lets back up and say WBama wins Iowa and then Hillary comes back and wins NH. There is no reason to think that Wbama would do much better with Hispanics, if only because HIllary's appeal to Hispanics is one also of fame and the Clinton name. So the HIllary wins Nevada and SC, and wins in Michigan (doesn't count) and Florida (again, no count), going into Super Tuesday. The story then is of the inevitable Clinton train having weathered the Iowa surprise, and then coming back strong. Even if we assume Wbama would dominate the caucauses like Obama has, you would still have Hillary winning California, NY, and all those states she won, and if she lost a few southern states, the margins would have been far smaller in her defeats, so that in delegates by the end of February 5 she would have been far ahead.

You and Kid kid yourselves if you think that the fact that Obama's campaign is historic does not add significantly to his appeal. If he were just another white guy, Hillary and the Clinton machine could have also already gone nuclear on his ass, and started chanting about how you had one historic candidate (first viable woman) vs. just another white guy, not matter how pretty he spoke.