Agathon to discuss Apple's stock price

[snoopy369]

They're only 'experts' when they agree with you, right?

I'm still waiting for a real stock man to post here, to the extent that we have one at Poly (DanS or similar). You can define pretty much *any* stock as overvalued - or undervalued - with even a minimal knowledge of the stock market, that's why the market is interesting

[Asher]

Originally posted by snoopy369
They're only 'experts' when they agree with you, right?

I'm still waiting for a real stock man to post here, to the extent that we have one at Poly (DanS or similar). You can define pretty much *any* stock as overvalued - or undervalued - with even a minimal knowledge of the stock market, that's why the market is interesting

It depends on how much faith you want to put into a company that historically has flushed any chance of mainstream success down the drain.

Also, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_bubble

[snoopy369]

I challenge you to define 'mainstream success' such that the iPod doesn't qualify...

[Pekka]

Well, at least Nokia announced huge success with growth to 40% global market share and lots more actually than analysts predicted. As is the usual story.

The strong ones still go up. NOt talking about products, but if we look at the market and prices and whatnot... that was today's deal. No excuses.

[Asher]

Originally posted by snoopy369
I challenge you to define 'mainstream success' such that the iPod doesn't qualify...

I'm not talking about the iPod, it's a recent success in the mainstream to be sure.

I'm referring to the far more profitable Mac market and thinking much farther back.

Apple doesn't really have an investor-friendly history. The fact that they're doing well recently isn't enough for me to think they've overcome their gross stupidity since the early 90s, where most of the people are still the same.

[CrONoS]

Apple is too cool to take care of their investors, the investors are taking care of Apple.

[Ming]

Apple's arogance has never been a plus to the investor community. It sometimes seems like Apple goes out of their way to piss them off

And yes, they have made some very silly decisions, as well as some good ones over the years.

They may be trying to overcome their investor relations woes... they do see that they have a problem there, and are taking steps to improve them (based on comments in trade journals)... as far as their product strategies, that's a different story

[snoopy369]

Steve Jobs seems to have learned how to be nice to investors...

The iPod is their mainstream product, and has helped pretty much all of their other products (from iTunes to Macbooks to whatever else). The Mac is not - and probably never will be - a truly mainstream PC, until/unless it either becomes compatible with Windows directly (Mac OS able to run windows programs, and/or Mac PC comes preloaded with Windows) - and even then its cost limits the mainstream element of it.

It would be interesting to see what would happen if Mac OS XI, say, was able to run Windows programs. I'm not sure if that's even remotely possible - or legal - but let's say in 2010 Mac OS XI was released with true Windows compatibility. In five years, would they have 20%+ marketshare? I'd wonder... it's possible they would, certainly if they opened their market up to non-mac hardware and/or expanded on the iMac line to offer quite cheap PCs.

[Asher]

Has anyone mentioned the lower-than-expected European iPhone sales yet?

According to Ars, a retail store manager in the UK told them:

"sales have not been as good as the stores have hoped."

And this should be a good movie: http://arstechnica.com/journals/appl...kies-treatment

Remember the Trekkies documentary? MacHeads are getting their own now.

MacHeads the movie gives Mac faithful the Trekkies treatment

By Jacqui Cheng | Published: January 23, 2008 - 12:22PM CT

Most of the old-school Mac users in the house have seen Pirates of Silicon Valley, the film detailing the trials and tribulations of two of the world's most watched tech companies from their inception into the late 90s. Apple and Microsoft are fictionally (but based on real events) examined, as are a little bit of their respective "cultures." But Apple culture—that is, the atmosphere created by the company's followers—is a monster of its own, as most of us know. This has generated a slew of sites and books to look at just how crazy enthused these people really are (one of the most known being The Cult of Mac, which shares the same publisher as Ars Technica's Jon Stokes).

But what about a Trekkies-style movie looking at the same? A group of talented and dedicated filmmakers have decided to do just that with MacHeads, the movie. Just watch the trailer and you'll see a number of well-known names in the Mac world, such as Guy Kawasaki, Adam Engst, Andy Ihnatko, and a whooooole lotta fans. Thank the deities above that I was somehow missed in the filming of this movie. I hope.

Make fun of Mac users all you want (I do all the time, and I have been one since birth!), but this religious Apple phenomenon is fascinating, and MacHeads looks like it has been well-made. I'm convinced that I saw an expected release date last night, but I can't seem to find that anymore this morning. So, for now, we're not sure when the full movie will be out, and whether it will be available on the 'Net first or not. I do, however, plan to watch it. Do you?

[Pekka]

Asher, but that's not a big surprise now is it? Way overpriced for Euro market, released way too late, bad provider deals... it just won't cut it. I think they can pull it off with the next model if they realize that they need to release it the same time or much earlier in here anyway and get better provider deals, I mean not for apple but provider-customer deals. I think they can still sell enough being overpriced, but they have to figure out the time problem as well as provider problem. This might fly in the US, but it won't fly in here nor does it fly in Asia.

It's definitely not fubared, but they have to be more customer friendly and realize that it's not the problem of the provider only. They need to push the deal that the customer gets. In here, they do. If they are not willing to learn that lesson, they will pound their heads to the wall forever and lose considerable market opportunities in here.

[LordShiva]

Teh Dow, NASDAQ, MSFT, and even GOOG are up today.

But AAPL continues to tumble

[Kataphraktoi]

Interestingly enough, many of the "experts" believe that Apple is now a great buy again (the same experts who were saying to sell a month ago)

And why not? Perhaps the experts realized that it was overpriced and therefore a good time to get out. The lower the price tumbles the better a buy apple is(assuming you believe they will turn it around). I expect by OCT 1st it will have reached 150\200+ again.

Having no experience with stocks(or the mentioned experts), it seems the time to buy is when prices tumble and the time to sell when prices peak. When else?

[Asher]

Originally posted by LordShiva
Teh Dow, NASDAQ, MSFT, and even GOOG are up today.

But AAPL continues to tumble

Yep. Tech stocks continue to rise, Apple continues to fall. But it's the general market woes!!!

AAPL: -3.93%
MSFT: +2.32%
DELL: +3.23%

Even Sun Microsystems is up...+7.62%

HP: +1.44%
PALM: +8.91% (clearly the iPhone terrifies investors!)
GOOG: +2.63

[rah]

So what's your prediction for OCT 1.
I'd love to have it on record.

[Asher]

I don't predict what the stock will be at because the majority of investors are too stupid to live.

My position is that it is overvalued. I never did predict what price it will be, which is why Agathon's whole discussion about why its high price proved me wrong is so amusing. A lot of people don't seem to understand that a statement saying it's overvalued isn't disproved by people keeping to buy the stock due to a speculation bubble.

My prediction was simply it was overvalued, and it would crash and crash hard.

I still think, even at 133.46, it's overvalued given its earnings.