Agathon to discuss Apple's stock price

[Imran Siddiqui]

Thus: more confirmation that the stock was overvalued.

Indeed.

[Drogue]

Wait, so when the market's falling by quite a lot, it's a shock that a luxury goods brand is falling a bit more? This doesn't say much about Apple, it says more about the economy.

[Agathon]

Drogue is basically correct.

When the market as a whole is in turmoil, Apple's stock tends to drop. This happened only a few months ago, where the stock dropped heavily. When things calmed down, it moved up again.

Note that the stock dropped even though Apple beat expectations. This would be news, except the same thing happened a few months back.

In other words, this drop is caused by the market situation in general, not by anything Apple did.


There are some deeply stupid anti-Apple posters on Apolyton. Fortunately, most of them are on my ignore list, so I don't have to bother with their daft pronouncements, which have been consistently wrong for going on five years now. My favourite is how buymusic.com and PlaysforSure were going to put Apple out of the music business. That sure ended up being true...

If you believe that recession will be avoided, then buy AAPL. You'll make a ton of money.

[Imran Siddiqui]

even though Apple beat expectations

Uh... no they didn't. Every financial report I've read says that Apple's numbers came in under what was forecasted for this quarter. Ie, under expectations, even though they did make a lot of moolah.

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by Drogue
Wait, so when the market's falling by quite a lot, it's a shock that a luxury goods brand is falling a bit more? This doesn't say much about Apple, it says more about the economy.

Asher doesn't think this is at all shocking; it's confirmation of what he already believed, that AAPL is [was] overvalued.

[Agathon]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

even though Apple beat expectations

Uh... no they didn't. Every financial report I've read says that Apple's numbers came in under what was forecasted for this quarter. Ie, under expectations, even though they did make a lot of moolah.

Wrong again. How is it possible to be so wrong? I mean, can you actually read?

http://www.forbes.com/markets/2008/01/23/motorola-netflix-ebay-markets-cx_er_0123vid2.html

Apple handily beat expectations for this quarter, but their forecast for next quarter was below what analysts expected.

In other words, Apple doesn't think that they will do as well this coming quarter, probably because the economy is going to hell, and, as Drogue implied, people are less likely to shell out for a $400 phone in such circumstances.

We'll only find out if they were right in a few months.

Thank you for playing.


I suggest that people who want to make a real contribution to this debate go look at what happened in November 2007. The markets had a bad time, and AAPL tanked. When things seemed to straighten out again AAPL went over $200 a share.

This has bugger all to do with Apple, and everything to do with the effect of the general market situation on the prospects for such companies. If the market wasn't having jitters right now, this thread would not exist.

[Asher]

Originally posted by Agathon
Drogue is basically correct.

When the market as a whole is in turmoil, Apple's stock tends to drop. This happened only a few months ago, where the stock dropped heavily. When things calmed down, it moved up again.

Note that the stock dropped even though Apple beat expectations. This would be news, except the same thing happened a few months back.

In other words, this drop is caused by the market situation in general, not by anything Apple did.

The market, in general, was up.

Apple was down. Way down.

Don't blame this on general market woes, it shows just how ignorant you are.

If you believe that recession will be avoided, then buy AAPL. You'll make a ton of money.

The people that took your suggestion to buy AAPL a month ago when you last made it lost roughly 35% since then. It's still overvalued when you compare Apple to its contemporaries in earnings per share. It's got more to drop, and it will. Apple's had a helluva ride but reality is setting in. Apple's stock now is akin to Microsoft's stock in the late 80s/early 90s, it levels out at some reasonable pace once people actually understand the company more.

[Asher]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker


Asher doesn't think this is at all shocking; it's confirmation of what he already believed, that AAPL is [was] overvalued.

I don't think what Drogue said had anything to do with the Apple situation.

Both Agathon and Drogue are disconnected from the US financial markets, and are artsy fislosifizing thinkers, so I don't think this is unexpected.

The markets as a whole were up today. Microsoft finished positive today. Intel was not only positive, but up +7.25%. Even Ford! was up today by 6.24%.

The reason the stocks fell had nothing to do with "general market woes" and everything to do with underwhelming forecasts by Apple. The iPod growth stagnated, for instance. Apple's growth pace is slowing, and given Apple's tremendously overvalued status that meant expected future earnings fell, which meant the disconnect between the reasonable price of Apple stock and the actual price of Apple stock became apparent. And investors sold it off, in droves.

The fact that Agathon describes anyone who disagrees with him as being "anti-Apple", and he puts them on his ignore list, is really quite telling. You're either with him in pimping out Apple, or you're an enemy of the State, and he does what every good Commies do to enemies of the state -- he censors them.

I wonder how hard Agathon had to resist replying to my posts blasting the OS X UI, with examples. I know it made Whaleboy run off, tail between legs. Some people don't like reality, what can I say.

[Agathon]

Anyone who isn't on my ignore list prepared to post?

[Asher]

The fact that Agathon describes anyone who disagrees with him as being "anti-Apple", and he puts them on his ignore list, is really quite telling. You're either with him in pimping out Apple, or you're an enemy of the State, and he does what every good Commies do to enemies of the state -- he censors them.

[Agathon]

I guess the answer is "no".

[Asher]

I don't know why you expect replies when you simply add people to the ignore list for proving you wrong.

[LordShiva]

Teh Dow was up 300 points today.

[LordShiva]

Originally posted by Asher
Microsoft finished positive today. Intel was not only positive, but up +7.25%. Even Ford! was up today by 6.24%.

Originally posted by Asher
The fact that Agathon describes anyone who disagrees with him as being "anti-Apple", and he puts them on his ignore list, is really quite telling. You're either with him in pimping out Apple, or you're an enemy of the State, and he does what every good Commies do to enemies of the state -- he censors them.

[Kataphraktoi]

I like apple and i think they were overvalued. Back a few months at 200$ i wouldnt recommend anyone to buy-it didnt make sense to me that stellar growth would continue-why buy high?

Am i ignored?