Teh Iran Thread

[Sirotnikov]

I get the unmistakable feeling Israel is down right pissed the US attack on Iran that Israel would so like to see is becoming less likely by the day.

it has less to do with the attack, and much more to do with the resolve to stand ground and use all means necessary to stop Iran from getting the bomb.

The reason why Israel has not bombed anything yet, is because it thinks that there's a good chance of stopping the Iranian bomb using political pressure. Also, Israel knows that bombing Iran would be quite insane.

the recent NIE was poorly worded, and the world media has interperted it in a way which very much reduces the Iranian responsibility, and much reduces both the international resolve for political pressure (which we were hoping for) and the US ability to believably threaten war.

Any threat coming from the US right now would sound totally bogus. So Iran is now confident that it will not be attacked by the US in coming years.

This means that if they suddenly decide to weaponize their project, they can make a run for it, and then be protected by the nukes, like N. Korea.

[Wezil]

Originally posted by Sirotnikov
it has less to do with the attack, and much more to do with the resolve to stand ground and use all means necessary to stop Iran from getting the bomb.

The reason why Israel has not bombed anything yet, is because it thinks that there's a good chance of stopping the Iranian bomb using political pressure. Also, Israel knows that bombing Iran would be quite insane.

Personally I think it's inevitable. The nuclear genie is out now like it or not.

the recent NIE was poorly worded, and the world media has interperted it in a way which very much reduces the Iranian responsibility,

So what 's new? Someone claims the media got it wrong.

and much reduces both the international resolve for political pressure (which we were hoping for) and the US ability to believably threaten war.

Any threat coming from the US right now would sound totally bogus. So Iran is now confident that it will not be attacked by the US in coming years.

This means that if they suddenly decide to weaponize their project, they can make a run for it, and then be protected by the nukes, like N. Korea.

You want the US to exert its political influence (and military if necessary) to protect you from Iran. If Iran "makes a run for it" why don't you bomb them? You know the US will give you SC cover regardless.

[Sirotnikov]

You want the US to exert its political influence (and military if necessary) to protect you from Iran. If Iran "makes a run for it" why don't you bomb them? You know the US will give you SC cover regardless.

We want the US to exert political influence because the US actually has political influence, while Israel doesn't.

We want the US to exert political influence because we really don't want to bomb Iran, and we don't want the US to bomb Iran either.

If the political efforts fail, we will consider our options.
In such a case, we would attack. But if the US wanted to attack, we would give it preference.

[dannubis]

If tomorrow a nuclear bomb were to be detonated in Tel Aviv I guess it would take about 10 minutes before the entire surface of Iran is transformed in glass.

The Iranians know this... everybody knows this. If Iran is building a bomb (likely) they will never be able to use it offensively (even through their proxy's since the origin of a nuclear weapon can be traced back to the reactor where the Uranium or Plutonium was enriched).

On the other hand having a nuclear weapon would protect them from future wars of agression by either Israel or the US (both have a past track records of engaging in this type of military operations).

So you do the math of why they want a bomb so badly.