Should the west attack Iran?

[Wezil]

Sure, and they'll welcome you as liberators.

[Patroklos]

They can welcome falling bombs and cruise missiles as whatever they want. Though I think idol worshiping is against their religion.

[Wezil]

Nice of the Iranians to agree to just sit there while you bomb the **** out of them. I wouldn't expect any reprisals nearby....

US military thinkers.

[Theben]

Iraq was just a base for this operation all along. Once we blast Iran into dust we'll send the boys on home. I'm sure the Iraqi govmint will be able to handle any problems resulting from this on their own.

[Ecthy]

/me delurks

Originally posted by Pekka
But there's a hippie commune closer, maybe you can go there and cry with them. You don't have to use any oil at all, just wamr each others bodies with the nature, eat veggies and drink heated water. Unless you do that, you can't talk about anything.

Idiot.

/me goes back into lurking

[Patroklos]

Nice of the Iranians to agree to just sit there while you bomb the **** out of them. I wouldn't expect any reprisals nearby....

They can do two things, attack Iraq outright which will 1.) rekindle Iraqi nationalism for 50% of the population making occupation of that half almost unnessecary, 2.) dooming the conventional Iranian miliary to an unexpectedly early meeting with Allah (2 for one deal).

Or supply their forces in Iraq from Iran, like they are already doing. Admittely with a little more zeal for the operation form the Shia in Iraq.

In either case, an attack by the West on Iran will be just that, an attack by the WEST. Any official retaliation for those actions by Iran, whether in Iraq the gulf or Nepal, will be responded to by the WEST.

Forcing Europe into Iraq

[Wezil]

Originally posted by Patroklos


They can do two things, attack Iraq outright which will 1.) rekindle Iraqi nationalism for 50% of the population making occupation of that half almost unnessecary, 2.) dooming the conventional Iranian miliary to an unexpectedly early meeting with Allah (2 for one deal).

Unlikely they would attack outright. They have proxies capable of doing that.

Or supply their forces in Iraq from Iran, like they are already doing. Admittely with a little more zeal for the operation form the Shia in Iraq.

"A little more zeal"? No big deal.

You forget Afghanistan. Expect more grief there as well.

In either case, an attack by the West on Iran will be just that, an attack by the WEST. Any official retaliation for those actions by Iran, whether in Iraq the gulf or Nepal, will be responded to by the WEST.

Forcing Europe into Iraq

If you think anybody besides the US and Israel are going to take military action you are truly insane.

[Proteus_MST]

That´s what the west had Saddam Hussein for, at least till 1991,
to keep the Iran busy so that they wouldn´t tink of things like building nukes

[Patroklos]

Unlikely they would attack outright. They have proxies capable of doing that.

I don't know, never underestimate the will of a dictator scorned (the Imams, not there poster boy). Being entirely humbled by the west is not going to make the Iranian people like us at all, but it completely destroys the legitimacy of Iran's current rulers. I am not saying in any way shape or form that they will throw them off for democracy, but they might throw them off for some different extreme fundamentalists, which for the current extreme fundamentalists would be just as bad.

Attacking us in the gulf or in Iraq might be a required after all the smack they talked to us and their own people.

And proxy is the same if it is an officially sanctioned proxy.

"A little more zeal"? No big deal.

I consider an attack on Iran a completely different ball game than our rather mundane involvement in Iraq (historically relative). This would be a major event. No more cutting taxes, no more Americans living there lives like nothing happened, no more life as usual. If we do this it will be with the complete understanding that we may loose a few dozen aircraft, a ship or two in the gulf, and that the world economy will be hindered (perception only, the oil will flow).

So when I say what I say, rest assured I have reconciled myself with the scale of the effects this action will cause. Which is why I am in no great hurry to bomb Iran, at least not without Europe or someone official telling the world population what the stakes will be.

It may very well be that we will never be reconciled to these facts, and will never attack.

You forget Afghanistan. Expect more grief there as well.

You have a very interesting notion of the capabilities of the Iranian military. They will cause some trouble, but they will pick on or the other. Iraq is far easier for them to play around in.

If you think anybody besides the US and Israel are going to take military action you are truly insane.

That depends entirely on Iran. Nothing right now would cement their involvement, nothing right now makes US action certain either.

[Elok]

I really don't care if they get nukes. North Korea has 'em and that scares me a lot more. We can't afford another invasion, and like the French dude said, if they try to nuke Israel we'll have a perfect excuse to wipe them off the map. Sure, Ahmadinejad has been saying all sorts of crazy crap, but I gather that's his job. He's Iran's Zaphod Beeblebrox, he has the power to throw money around to calm the populace but he wouldn't control the nukes.

[Patroklos]

I would rather the trigger that causes us to take almost insigificant military action against Iran as far as civilain casualties go, if it proves required, not be the death of several million Irsaeli and Palestinian civilians via nukes.

[Elok]

I doubt they're dumb enough to try. They seem to be developing the things as a deterrent, nothing more. There are crazier people out there with nuclear weapons already, and they haven't used them. We don't have the manpower for a real war anyway, and I can't see us bringing back the draft for this crap. We're sick of war, and we've proven that we don't know squat about the management of a middle eastern country.

[LordShiva]

Originally posted by Elok
I really don't care if they get nukes. North Korea has 'em and that scares me a lot more. We can't afford another invasion, and like the French dude said, if they try to nuke Israel we'll have a perfect excuse to wipe them off the map. Sure, Ahmadinejad has been saying all sorts of crazy crap, but I gather that's his job. He's Iran's Zaphod Beeblebrox, he has the power to throw money around to calm the populace but he wouldn't control the nukes.

QFT.

But I guess some people seem to want to buy teh fearmongering that helps teh Western media sell.

[Riesstiu IV]

The west needs to attack the black gates of Mordor so Frodo can make it to Mt. Doom. If Mordor gets a ring of mass destruction the entire world is screwed.

[Wezil]

Pat -

I had a longer response but the forum ate my post.

Consider the opposite effect may occur. In the event of US bombing the population may "rally round the leader". Nothing can get a people united quite so well as being attacked. I refer you to your own 9/11 example.

Proxies - Like Iran would care if you knew they supported them. "Sanctioned" means nothing. You do however seem to concede that this would be an issue so I'll move on.

Iranian military - I never mentioned once. I referred to proxies. Iran has "friends" and influence in the region and can cause you considerable grief. If you think I'm implying the Iranian military will go toe to toe with the US I want what you are smoking.