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  • Originally posted by Oerdin
    Originally posted by Straybow
    Not so. Recent archeological studies show of Great Lakes tribes show that both the number of settlements and their populations was relatively stable from the 14th century to the 18th century.

    I'm quoting from books like 1491 and other popular history books of the period. The high counters estimate that around 95% of the native population was killed by disease while the low counters are saying "only" 70% or so died of disease. It's a great book and very well cited.

    Well, here's a clue for you: 100% of the population dies of something, and yet human communities survive this endless genocide. Amazing, what?

    Just because people are dying of smallpox doesn't mean they aren't reproducing, only that manner of death and life expectancy are changing.

    There isn't very much difference between high and low count in North America. The bulk of the population, and of the high-low differential, is in Mesoamerica and the Andes. North of that area there isn't evidence of a Black Death scale die off at the turn of the 16th century.

    If you look at medieval England they have "high counters" and "low counters," too. On the high end, England may have had a population of 6 million in the early 14th century. On the low end, 4½ million. The Black Plague hit, and millions died. The population continued to decline for three more generations. The bottom of the curve is the opening of the 15th century, at 2-2¼ million.

    So, for the high counters, the loss is comparable to the low counters' estimates of post-Columbian die off. Yet, England didn't crumble. In the coming centuries they faced two enemies who dwarfed England in population, wealth, and resources. England grew stronger and prospered.

    About a third of the population loss was unrelated to the Plague itself, but was a manifestation of low birth rates due to economic and social conditions following the Plague. It was during this period that the English started delaying marriage and having smaller families than continental Europeans. Their economy was growing, but they used this growth for raising their standard of living instead of breeding like rabbits.

    The Algonkians were fighting a long and brutal civil war among a dozen tribes. Long as in many generations. They were losing more population this way than through new European disease. Hence came Hiawatha and the rest of that story.

    I read the study about Great Lakes village densities in Science, about a dozen years ago, and noting since has dispelled their conclusions. They were using state-of-the-art satellite imagery to locate previously unknown village sites. They'd establish founding and abandonment dates, growth and decline of number of dwellings, etc.

    The number of villages, size of villages, and span of settlement didn't change systemmatically between pre-16th and 16th+ centuries.

    That was white-guilt-foundation-shaking evidence showing that populations weren't devastated by European contact, including 18th century wars. Their doom was one of absorption and expulsion in the 19th century, not wasting by disease.
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    • Originally posted by Arrian
      Of course, those were the high-pop, relatively urbanized empires, which didn't exist up here.
      A factor I hadn't thought of before: it's perfectly believable that there would have been much higher death tolls in areas with greater population density (South America) than in areas with lower population density (North America). Disease can do more damage more quickly in urban environments.
      Click here if you're having trouble sleeping.
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      • Originally posted by Arrian
        We are, in essence, talking apples & oranges. However, Straybow's orange is relevant, b/c all of this goes back to the question of American genocide of NA's. The huge death tolls of the very early colonial period were, IIUC, mostly outside of the boundaries of the present-day USA (I did bring up the Mississippi Valley tribes, but I don't know enough about it to really say much) - the Aztecs, Inca, etc. Of course, those were the high-pop, relatively urbanized empires, which didn't exist up here.

        So the question is how much damage the initial disease impact did up here in the USA versus how much damage was done BY the USA. It's not going to be 95%/5%. It's probably closer to 50/50.

        Not that it changes things from a morality standpoint. It's just interesting (to me, at least).

        We suffer from an extreme paucity of data on Miss. Valley civilizations. We know that they had a few cities approaching 10k in size. That means they'd show up on a Civ map, which is all that matters.
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        • More doctors in urban areas. Time out, filthy red savages didn't live in urban areas until casinos were invented.
          Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
          "Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
          He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ Braindead

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          • We suffer from an extreme paucity of data on Miss. Valley civilizations. We know that they had a few cities approaching 10k in size. That means they'd show up on a Civ map, which is all that matters.
            Size1, baby!

            Larger than Great Lakes/Coastal sites, right? But not anywhere near the big MesoAmerican cities.

            Anyway, it seems logical (if not certain) that the disease impact would decrease with pop density & trade connections (plague impact on Celtic Britain >> Germanic Britain, according to the book Catastrophe, due to more trade w/the rest of Europe but nearly none between the Saxons & Celts).

            -Arrian
            grog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!

            The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.

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            • Originally posted by Shrapnel12
              Great, what we need is another nut on Apolyton.
              I thought we outed this DL last year with a similar troll type of thread. oh well. have fun guys.

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              • Originally posted by Arrian
                We suffer from an extreme paucity of data on Miss. Valley civilizations. We know that they had a few cities approaching 10k in size. That means they'd show up on a Civ map, which is all that matters.

                Size1, baby!

                Post and response about Civ, threadjack complete.

                My work here is done!
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