monk aggressors tear gassed in Burma

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by GePap

As for prestige, the Chinese surely want it - and everyone spends huge sums on the Olympics.

from what i understand they are making huge changes in Beijing, doing far more than most olympic hosts.

[Wezil]

Originally posted by GePap


Come on, its not just governments. The public cares more about whether they, their family, or their friends have jobs than whether some individual they will never meet, from some alien culture, ejoys the right to vote, or of free assembly.

Everyone, not just governments, would have to re-examine their priorities.

I think you are arguing semantics when from what I see I agree with your position on this.

As to the Olympics, while the event is certainly important to the Chinese wrt prestige, it is like trade. They'd have to be pretty nasty before anyone of consequence is going to boycott the event. Simply put, the Chinese support of a regime which is pretty nasty probably won't do it.

[GePap]

The world is not a simple place, it is a deply complex place. More importantly, individuals and states can have multiple rationales for doing things, those rationales having different importances.

When it comes to China, as far as their actions are concerned, their priorities seem as follows:

1. Regime survival, which in their mind means continuing to provide economic success and stability in China to prove their legitimacy given they don't have an actual ideology to claim legitmacy from.
2. Anything else.

Which means that China will place economi growth above all. Part of being able to grow economically is securing resources, whcih they will do by creating contracts with those who have the resources they need.

There are times when #2 is allowed to come up. Lets take Sudan. China will NEVER stop buying Sudanese oil. Period. But of course, all trade is two ways. China won;t stop buying Sudanese oil, and Sudan needs to keep selling China the oil because China has the money. That gives China leverage. Will they surrender buying oil? NO. but the Chinese have no real interest in the bloodletting in Sudan, and I am sure they probably find it unseamly anyways. So, they put pressure on Sudan to clean up its mess, and put its house in order. And since China is the biggest customer for Sudan, Sudan has few options.

How does this translate to Myanmar?

China will not cut of the Junta in the aftermath of any bloody repression. They will want the Junta not to act bloodily, but that decision will be made in Myanmar, NOT China.

so in the end, what matters is what the leaders of the Junta think as far as how much of a threat to their grip this movement is. As their actions in the last few hours show, they are clearly afraid of this movement and have begun moving aggressively.

Will the Chinese ambassador go to them and tell them not to act harshly? Certainly. Its not in China's interest. BUt if the Junta acts harshly, will China sacrifice its access to Myanmar's resources? NO.

So all your pronouncement about Chinese sanctions are silly. They certainly won;t put sanctions before hand, and as for the aftermath, they want to deal in the country period, so none after the fact. And sanctions during a violent repression are rather meaningless.

[GePap]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
from what i understand they are making huge changes in Beijing, doing far more than most olympic hosts.

When have the Chinese not done something to a scale that makes any other countries' actions pale in comparison?

[Kuciwalker]

Quality control?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by GePap
China won;t stop buying Sudanese oil, and Sudan needs to keep selling China the oil because China has the money. That gives China leverage. Will they surrender buying oil? NO. but the Chinese have no real interest in the bloodletting in Sudan, and I am sure they probably find it unseamly anyways. So, they put pressure on Sudan to clean up its mess, and put its house in order. And since China is the biggest customer for Sudan, Sudan has few options.

How does China being a big customer give China leverage, if there is no implicit threat that China will take some action?

AFAICT the only difference between Burma and Sudan is that in Sudan the issue didnt go directly to the nature of the regime itself. That certainly means it could be harder to get results in Burma than in Sudan. OTOH the opposition can consciously attempt to ask for sanctions that give the regime a chance of survival, albeit with different behavior.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by GePap


When have the Chinese not done something to a scale that makes any other countries' actions pale in comparison?

Er, their space program? The size of their embassy in Israel? Their efforts to promote learning of the Portugese language (?) I dunno, silly answers, but I think this is a silly question.

Tell me what prestige things comparable to the Olympics they HAVE done on a scale that makes all other countries actions pale in comparison.

[lord of the mark]

nine more people were killed, including one Japanese journalist.

While China blocked a UNSC res, they apparently did support a UNSC presidential statement (farther then theyve been willing to go on Burma thus far) and Burma will be accepting a UN envoy.

[Japher]

I hope Japan invades their ass!@

Then, I hope England, China, and India join in and kick that junta to the curb! This is insane....

Finally, a just war and we stuck in Iraq!

[GePap]

(to LoTM)

I would continue to argue, but as usual, I will let the news make my points for me (much like Iraq, iran, lebanon, .....).

[DaShi]

China's foreign policy has always been non-intervention. That doesn't mean that they don't intervene. They do. Just not publicly.

[Chemical Ollie]

There are unconfirmed rumours that the General of Burma has resigned and left the country (who would accept him in?). Also, the Internet and phone wires to Burma have been shut down.

At least in Sweden, there is a massive media campaign asking people to wear red clothing in symphaty for the monks.

[molly bloom]

Originally posted by GePap

The world is not a simple place, it is a deply complex place.

Who knew ?

[molly bloom]

Originally posted by DaShi
China's foreign policy has always been non-intervention. That doesn't mean that they don't intervene. They do. Just not publicly.

Except when they invaded Viet Nam.

And Tibet.

And 'aided' North Korea.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by GePap
(to LoTM)

I would continue to argue, but as usual, I will let the news make my points for me (much like Iraq, iran, lebanon, .....).

Be my guest. I will continue to post news, and interesting opinions I find on the subject.

You might find your talents put to better use as a professional internatioonal risk analyst, folks who can predict the outcome international crises with certainty and accuracy are in demand, IIUC.