monk aggressors tear gassed in Burma

[BeBMan]

Originally posted by Wezil
Individually, not much. They can however choose to make these issues important at election time so the governments of the west will actually have a political incentive to do something to compete with the economic incentive of doing nothing.

True

Though in some cases there may be not much below an open military intervention to stop some thugocrats, and that's of course often not a viable option.

[BeBMan]

Originally posted by aneeshm
The country is a part of Greater India, and has been since the beginning, when Indic culture gave the country a "quick start".

For the love of God, what more does the government need! Do something already! We have the forces, we have the ability, and this is something NOBODY can oppose us on.

Well, are you willing to go to war with China over that?

[aneeshm]

Originally posted by Wezil

Would this have stopped what's happening now? Maybe not, but it may have put China in a position to be less supportive of the regime or perhaps put India in a better public position to do something. Who knows?

How could we be in a better position? We're in a perfect position. I think we even have some troops in the North-East which could be easily diverted to this without incurring serious risk to our other interests in the region.

I don't think anybody will oppose us right now if we simply declare that unless contact with the outside world is restored immediately, and democracy is restored within X days, we will invade. And even if they disobey, we can invade. Who will oppose us even then?

Our public position is perfect. It's the internal political squabbling that hobbles us.

[aneeshm]

Originally posted by BeBro


Well, are you willing to go to war with China over that?

They will not declare over this.

[BeBMan]

Originally posted by aneeshm


They will not declare over this.

How do you know that? They will certainly not sit there doing nothing when you throw a party in - what they see - as their sphere of influence. At least you have a certain crisis on your hands, relations getting bad etc, etc. Not sure how this would develop, maybe they really don't want war, but at some point, sooner or later, they will not just look how the influence of their major competitor in the region grows at their own expense.

edit: I mean we are talking about a country here that's starts getting all mad when foreign heads of state meet people China doesn't like.

[aneeshm]

Originally posted by BeBro

How do you know that? They will certainly not sit there doing nothing when you throw a party in - what they see - as their sphere of influence. At least you have a certain crisis on your hands, relations getting bad etc, etc. Not sure how this would develop, maybe they really don't want war, but at some point, sooner or later, they will not just look how the influence of their major competitor in the region grows at their own expense.

Let them.

They will still not declare over this, because, and this is the funniest bit,

IT'S BAD FOR BUSINESS!

[BeBMan]

Well, killing their own people for demonstrating on a public square in Beijing wasn't great for business either, still they did. It really depends how they see their interests touched.

[lord of the mark]

aneeshm, at this point I think all I am hoping for from India would be open diplomatic pressure on Burma, and support for action at the UNSC, and the beginning of targeted sanctions. That, together with the evolving position of the ASEAN nations would have an impact, and would leave China in a more diplomatically exposed position as the only major player not pressuring the regime.

I wonder what the chances of India going that far are.

[lord of the mark]

Its interesting that some people think I profoundly misunderstand what happened in South Africa. Apparently so does Desmond Tutu.



"Fellow laureate Tutu, who won his Nobel Prize for his role in South Africa's anti-apartheid movement, was preparing to join a march in Sweden protesting events in Myanmar when he spoke by telephone to the AP Friday.

"In South Africa we had rolling mass action that covered the action taken by the people. We also had an alliance of faith-based organizations," Tutu said. In Myanmar, "the important thing is that religious leaders have now put their lives on the lines and I admire them for that."

Tutu said he would call on China to use its "very powerful leverage" on Myanmar's leaders. If China did not respond, he said he would join calls to boycott the Beijing Olympics"

[aneeshm]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
aneeshm, at this point I think all I am hoping for from India would be open diplomatic pressure on Burma, and support for action at the UNSC, and the beginning of targeted sanctions. That, together with the evolving position of the ASEAN nations would have an impact, and would leave China in a more diplomatically exposed position as the only major player not pressuring the regime.

I wonder what the chances of India going that far are.

Oh, a threat of invasion doesn't have to be the first thing.

First step - loudly condemn.

Second step - use international pressure.

Third step - condemn everyone not using international pressure.

Fourth step - tell China to fall in line and condemn the junta.

Fifth step - threaten to boycott Beijing Olympics if they don't fall in line. Make it sound a bit aggressive, so that China will, to avoid losing face, not obey.

Sixth step - having set the frame of dialogue in which China is the violator, and therefore impotent, we then proceed to escalate pressure.

Seventh step - start openly supporting the resistors.

Eighth step - get them to invite you over.

Ninth step - make big military-sounding noises, the type troops on the border make.

Tenth step - if that does not work, invade.






The chances of us actually going that far - zero.

[DaShi]

Originally posted by aneeshm


Let them.

They will still not declare over this, because, and this is the funniest bit,

IT'S BAD FOR BUSINESS!

Remember what happened last time China thought that India was encroaching on their regional influence.

Also, it's not that bad for China. Business deals, China has plenty of. Resources, they'll go to war over.

[Colon™]

Are you ok DaShi?

[aneeshm]

The hit regional stability will take over even any insinuation of threats by China against India will be so bad for Chinese business that they won't do it.

[GePap]

So lets see:

No Chinese sanctions
Most certianly no Indian sabre rattling

Wow, how not shocking. Here of course, is a little bit of the reasons why:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/02/world/asia/01cnd-asia.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp

Myanmar’s Resources Provide Leverage
By THOMAS FULLER
Published: October 2, 2007
BANGKOK, Oct. 1 — For two decades, Myanmar’s neighbors have grappled with the question of how to respond to the unrelenting repression by the country’s ruling generals of its people. In Thailand, the answer comes each time Thais pay their electricity bill.

Natural gas from Myanmar, which generates 20 percent of all electricity in Thailand, keeps the lights on in Bangkok. The gas, which this year will cost about $2.8 billion, is the largest single export for Myanmar’s otherwise impoverished and cash-strapped economy.

Thailand’s gas imports highlight the dilemma facing China, India, Singapore and Malaysia, among other countries, as they vie for Myanmar’s hardwoods, minerals, gems — and access to its market of 47 million people.

At a time of spiraling world energy prices, the prospect of extracting resources appears to override the embarrassment and shame of dealing with a junta that has attracted world notoriety. For this reason, the countries that have the most leverage over Myanmar seem to be the most reluctant to use it, analysts say.

From the perspective of Myanmar’s generals, the gas purchases by Thailand are only the beginning of what promises to be a significant infusion of cash. Myanmar will soon announce the winner of a concession in the even larger Shwe gas fields off the coast of western Myanmar. Companies from India, China and South Korea have put in bids for those contracts.

In eastern Myanmar, Thai companies are building hydropower plants and have contracts to pay the government billions of dollars for the electricity generated there.

“For a country that’s used to a hand-to-mouth existence there is suddenly a bonanza of foreign exchange,” said Sean Turnell, a specialist on the Myanmar economy at Macquarie University in Australia. “Burma is now getting the wherewithal to tell the world to bug off. It strengthens their position immeasurably.”

The cash has allowed the generals who run Myanmar to buy weapons from China and helicopters from India, order a nuclear test reactor from Russia and construct their new capital north of Myanmar’s main city, Yangon.

“The natural gas drastically changed the military government’s fiscal position,” said Toshihiro Kudo, director of the Southeast Asian Studies Group at the Institute of Developing Economies, a research organization run by the Japanese government.

Myanmar’s gas reserves are small by global standards. BP, the oil company, estimates that Myanmar’s total reserves are 538 billion cubic meters, or 19 trillion cubic feet, far less than the reserves of nearby Malaysia or Indonesia. But the billions of dollars these gas fields will produce is valuable to the ruling generals, whose sources of financing are extremely limited due to American sanctions.

Last year, Myanmar sold $2 billion worth of gas to Thailand, which amounted to more than 40 percent of the country’s total exports for that year. Largely because of the gas deal, Thailand is Myanmar’s biggest trade partner, not China, as is widely reported.

“Thailand and Myanmar are increasingly integrated, increasingly dependent on each other,” Mr. Kudo said. As a result, he said, “I don’t think that Thailand is applying any very serious pressure on the military government.”

There is a stark contrast in Thailand between public anger over the beatings and the business-as-usual attitude that underlies Thai policy toward Myanmar.

At the United Nations last week, the Thai prime minister, Surayud Chulanont called the Myanmar crackdown “unacceptable.” Newspapers have run scathing editorials about Myanmar’s generals. And Thailand remains a refuge for dissidents from Myanmar.

But the bottom line, Thai officials say, is that Thailand is competing for the world’s energy resources, and if it doesn’t buy the gas, someone else will.

“We need power,” said Suthep Chimklai, director of the system planning division at the electricity authority. “We need to balance our sources by importing more power from our neighboring countries.” Thailand also buys small amounts of electricity from Laos and Malaysia.

To keep up with its demand for electricity, Thailand is building four power plants, all of which are designed to run on natural gas. If the supply of gas from Myanmar were disrupted, Mr. Suthep said, “it would be a serious problem.”

The natural gas reaches two power stations on the outskirts of Bangkok by way of a pipeline laid a decade ago by Total, the French oil company; Unocal, the American oil company which has since been absorbed by Chevron; and PTT Exploration and Production, Thailand’s leading company in the field.

According to Thailand’s Power Development Plan, the government plans to increase energy imports from Myanmar, thus further bolstering the financial position of the junta.

Thailand’s policy calls for buying an additional 8,200 megawatts from Myanmar over the next 14 years. Most of this is likely to come from hydroelectric power plants on the Salween River. The Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand has completed feasibility studies on a dam at Hat Gyi in Myanmar’s Karen state. A private Thai company, MDX, has been given a contract to complete a larger dam at Tasang in the Shan state.

Thailand’s PTT Exploration and Production has won the rights to explore three potential off-shore sites in the Gulf of Martaban, south of Yangon.

Gen. Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the army chief who led Thailand’s military coup last year, said last week that Thailand should stay engaged with Myanmar. “There are many friendly nations who help Myanmar like China and Korea because Myanmar is a country with plenty of natural resources that the powerful nations want to obtain,” General Sonthi said.

For China, the attraction of Myanmar is both economic — Myanmar imported $1.3 billion worth of Chinese goods in 2006 — and geostrategic.

As part of its bid for the gas fields in western Myanmar, China has proposed building a pipeline running from the Indian Ocean to Yunnan Province. An additional pipeline could carry crude oil, allowing ships coming from the Middle East to pump oil directly into China without making the long journey through the Straits of Malacca.

For Myanmar, the gas fields would mean more cash. Mr. Turnell estimates that gas pumped from Shwe platforms would have a value of $2 billion a year.

[Wezil]

That should give them more than enough cash to continue killing unarmed demonstrators well into the next millenium.