monk aggressors tear gassed in Burma

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Japher
Monk(ey)!!!

I sure hope one of them doesn't torch himself in protest... what's that called again?

suicide, I think.

[lord of the mark]

[Heresson]

these are fake monks. They are not catholic.

[GePap]

I think the next few days are key. The Junta appears ready to use force soon. If the army sticks with the Junta, this will get very messy very fast.

[lord of the mark]

china appears to fear a brutal crackdown, and to be quietly trying to avoid it.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070925/ap_on_re_as/china_nudging_the_junta

[DaShi]

Of course, they would. Why would China support a brutal military regime in southeast Asia? That would be crazy!

[GePap]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
china appears to fear a brutal crackdown, and to be quietly trying to avoid it.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070925/...ging_the_junta

The question is just how much the Junta thinks this could end their power. At the end of the day, if they trully think this could be the end of their regime, even what China wants will be irrelevant. To me the bigger question is, will the lowly foot soldier follow orders and shoot at monks, or do they refuse.

[lord of the mark]

[QUOTE] Originally posted by GePap

The question is just how much the Junta thinks this could end their power.

The opposition proposals have been relatively moderate.

At the end of the day, if they trully think this could be the end of their regime, even what China wants will be irrelevant.

If theyre willing to lose their last big sponsor, and watch the economy collapse further, at which point they may not be able to pay the troops, and then they lose anyway. Possibly in worse circumstances.

To me the bigger question is, will the lowly foot soldier follow orders and shoot at monks, or do they refuse.

Also non-coms and junior officers.

[GePap]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
If theyre willing to lose their last big sponsor, and watch the economy collapse further, at which point they may not be able to pay the troops, and then they lose anyway. Possibly in worse circumstances.

Myanmar has resources both China and India NEED. They won't stop dealing with the regime, even if they are unhappy about it.

do you have any examples of a state so poor that it feel because it could not pay the army? What you forget is that there will always be some wealth, and as long as its the soldiers have it better than Joe Bloe, they will stick with that system, if need be.

[lord of the mark]

[QUOTE] Originally posted by GePap

Myanmar has resources both China and India NEED. They won't stop dealing with the regime, even if they are unhappy about it.

Like what?

do you have any examples of a state so poor that it feel because it could not pay the army?

happened a lot in early modern times. Since 1800 or so, I dont know, im thinking Spain, some of the lesser Italian states maybe. Not sure. But usually a state falls before it quite reaches that point. Cause soldiers can see it coming, and usually the rulers want to get out while they can safely, and with money. But theres so MANY coups the last 40 years in Africa and such like, i couldnt swear there havent been some cases.


I might go researching some, on condition that IF i find one (a 20th century instance of a coup/regime collapse involving unpaid soldiers) you promise not immediately change the subject or ignore it. Otherwise I cant be bothered.

[lord of the mark]

ah hell, I'll do a cursory search anyway.


In this instance the coup failed, but not before a higher up was killed.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2004-10-06-guinea-bissau-revolt_x.htm

[GePap]

Originally posted by lord of the mark

Like what?

Natural gas. Maybe you have heard the one about China and India needing a lot of energy lately? Or that natural gas is useful in that regard?

happened a lot in early modern times. Since 1800 or so, I dont know, im thinking Spain, some of the lesser Italian states maybe. Not sure. But usually a state falls before it quite reaches that point. Cause soldiers can see it coming, and usually the rulers want to get out while they can safely, and with money. But theres so MANY coups the last 40 years in Africa and such like, i couldnt swear there havent been some cases.


I might go researching some, on condition that IF i find one (a 20th century instance of a coup/regime collapse involving unpaid soldiers) you promise not immediately change the subject or ignore it. Otherwise I cant be bothered.

Who the hell is speaking about coups? This regime has been in power for at least 17 years. Times have not been easy for those 17 years, and they are still in power.

[lord of the mark]

[QUOTE] Originally posted by GePap

Natural gas. Maybe you have heard the one about China and India needing a lot of energy lately? Or that natural gas is useful in that regard?

Burmas nat gas reserves are a tiny fraction of world reserves, and are probaboly of less importance to China than its stature in the world. In any case, Burma is NOT exporting gas to China now, the pipeline isnt there. By the time gas exports are available there may be a new regime in Burma, which will appreciate Chinas support for change.


You may be too young to remember, but one of the regular arguments against sanctions on South AFrica were there many strategic minerals. Well guess what, we still import strategic minerals from South Africa.

Who the hell is speaking about coups?

I am. Im giving examples of where states have run out of money to pay their troops, despite your assertion that that never happens. Was I to limit it to people power revolutions? There are too few data points, and most are in countries more prosperous than Burma.

This regime has been in power for at least 17 years. Times have not been easy for those 17 years, and they are still in power.

But there havent been sanctions from China in those years, and what we were discussing was the question of whether the regime could survive sanctions from China. If youd like to make the point that GDP per capita was lower at points in the last 17 years, than it WOULD be in the near future if China imposed sanctions, now that would be relevant. I await your analysis.

[lord of the mark]

Anyway so far it seems the regime is NOT risking the consequences of a massacre, but is attempting to use tear gas, arrests in the night, etc to quell this without a massacre.

[lord of the mark]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070926/ap_on_re_as/myanmar;_ylt=Ar9aMQo60Zk3nIAiohlFfDxvaA8F