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Hardly a heart. I have to sign a waiver to agree not to sue. Even if I didn't win, it would cost them way more in lawyer fees.
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Christianity: The belief that a cosmic Jewish Zombie who was his own father can make you live forever if you symbolically eat his flesh and telepathically tell him you accept him as your master, so he can remove an evil force from your soul that is present in humanity because a rib-woman was convinced by a talking snake to eat from a magical tree... -
You're in the states. You get an agreement not to sue with your fries.(\__/)
(='.'=)
(")_(") This is Bunny. Copy and paste bunny into your signature to help him gain world domination.Comment
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I didn't get fries.Christianity: The belief that a cosmic Jewish Zombie who was his own father can make you live forever if you symbolically eat his flesh and telepathically tell him you accept him as your master, so he can remove an evil force from your soul that is present in humanity because a rib-woman was convinced by a talking snake to eat from a magical tree...Comment
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This is real head-scratcher.
On Friday, MBIA, one of two large bond insurers, issued $1 billion in notes with a coupon rate of 14% fixed for 5 years.
MBIA currently is rated AAA. But this doesn't make any sense to me. Why would an AAA company need to pay 14% per annum for money? Few even have to pay 14% on credit cards, for heaven's sake!
In the last few days, the bond has fallen to 90 cents on the dollar, meaning that the bond is yielding 17% interest.
Looks to me like lots of trouble ahead for the market that is supported by MBIA.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Rather, the notes dropped to 80 cents on the dollar today. Yield of ~ 20%.
Yeh, that's a triple-A company.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Don't look at your 401(k) today, Arrian.
Dow down 2.5%
NASDAQ down 2%
S&P 500 down 3%I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Is this company specific, or are bonds in general falling to these yields? If normal AAA grade paper can be yielding 20%, it's goodbye house for half the country. And I'll be buying a lot of bonds. If it's just a company specific problem then it's less of an issue though.Originally posted by DanS
This is real head-scratcher.
On Friday, MBIA, one of two large bond insurers, issued $1 billion in notes with a coupon rate of 14% fixed for 5 years.
MBIA currently is rated AAA. But this doesn't make any sense to me. Why would an AAA company need to pay 14% per annum for money? Few even have to pay 14% on credit cards, for heaven's sake!
In the last few days, the bond has fallen to 90 cents on the dollar, meaning that the bond is yielding 17% interest.
Looks to me like lots of trouble ahead for the market that is supported by MBIA.Smile
For though he was master of the world, he was not quite sure what to do next
But he would think of something
"Hm. I suppose I should get my waffle a santa hat." - KuciwalkerComment
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No, it's company-specific, with a doozie of a kicker.
Primarily, I'm pointing out the absuridity of a company rated AAA having a bond paying 20%. Obviously, the company's not AAA quality if its bond pays these rates.
Secondarily, MBIA provides insurance against bond default, thereby lowering borrowing costs for hundreds of billions in bonds issued by cities, companies, etc. The AAA rating is essential to providing this insurance. I'm not sure of all of the details, but if MBIA is no longer AAA, then some of the default covenants for the underlying bonds that MBIA has insured might be triggered.Last edited by DanS; January 17, 2008, 18:25.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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What's your return this year, DanS?Comment
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Buffet
This is why Berkshire Hathaway announced it was getting into the bond insurance business.Originally posted by DanS
No, it's company-specific, with a doozie of a kicker.
Primarily, I'm pointing out the absuridity of a company rated AAA having a bond paying 20%. Obviously, the company's not AAA quality if its bond pays these rates.
Secondarily, MBIA provides insurance against bond default, thereby lowering borrowing costs for hundreds of billions in bonds issued by cities, companies, etc. The AAA rating is essential to providing this insurance. I'm not sure of all of the details, but if MBIA is no longer AAA, then some of the default covenants for the underlying bonds that MBIA has insured might be triggered.“It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”
― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of ManComment
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-2.1% total returns since January 1, 2008.Originally posted by One_more_turn
What's your return this year, DanS?
I cashed out of the S&P 500 near the end of September (only 3% below its high). I'm allocated 50% cash, 30% foreign ETFs, 10% individual stocks, 5% mutual funds, and 5% bond funds.
Loaded for bear.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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I was up 33.3% last year, and down 3.2% YTD.
I think a tradable bottom is near since most sentiment and technical indicators are at bearish extreme. You may want to call SPX just for fun.
How long this bear market will last is anybody's guess, but bear market rallies tend to be powerful.Comment
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These valuations still are priced for perfection. I don't think that earnings are supporting these prices.
So I think I'll keep my powder dry. Not enough blood in the streets yet, although the worldwide meltdown sure was impressive today.
Edit: Germany closed down over 7%. UK down over 5%. France down almost 7%. Spain down almost 8%.
Last edited by DanS; January 21, 2008, 13:31.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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S&P index future is down by 4% at moment. We should see blood tomorrow. It's your golden opportunity to make 10x in a few days.
I have currently 35% in individual stocks (Berkshire Hathaway being my largest position), 63% in money market fund, and 2% in SPX option. This 2% should be wiped out tomorrow for the time being.Comment
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Speaking of BRK
what is the real difference between the A and B shares?“It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”
― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of ManComment
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