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In da butt.
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2 months has passed though. There isn't enough room in the stores for that much even if someone would ship all of that inventory.Originally posted by Asher
Who said anything about continuing to deliver? My entire point was they overestimated in their original order shipment.
Do you completely ignore everything people post?I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
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As this is clearly not public, that is not possible. What some of us were doing is what is called intellectual discourse. We analyze the situation and the given facts and connect the dots to construct an hypothesis.Originally posted by Kidicious
And Asher is the one who needs to start providing some evidence for his claim that there is a material amt of inventory at ATT stores.
You choose to ignore all such analysis and instead demand that there be a public link to AT&T's internal warehouse inventories before you say anything. If you're going to that, you might as well give up."The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "Comment
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Or rather, its not common sense for ATT to continue to order more phones from Apple, if the phones arent selling at ATT stores. What do we know, if anything, about the rate of ATT orders for additional Iphones?Originally posted by Kidicious
You have no reason to believer that Apple continues to deliver inventory to ATT store rooms. That's not common sense if the product isn't selling."A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin BuberComment
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Originally posted by Kidicious
2 months has passed though. There isn't enough room in the stores for that much even if someone would ship all of that inventory."The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "Comment
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Warehouses cost money. Inventory costs money. Why would they warehouse Apple's stuff. There's no reason. In fact that would be incredibly stupid.
That might all seem reasonable to your Asher, but it's not. It's not likely at all. And you have no proof.I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
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Given the small size relative to value, id say general inventory holding costs are far higher than the warehouse costs (even though they need high quality warehousing)Originally posted by Kidicious
Warehouses cost money. Inventory costs money. Why would they warehouse Apple's stuff. There's no reason. In fact that would be incredibly stupid.
Obviously they dont WANT to hold inventory. They WANTED to sell everything they ordered, right away. They would use distribution centers, cause it doesnt make sense to ship a container load of phones to every store - you ship a container or air pallet load, or whatever to the DC, where its broken for the stores, and then probably combined with other phones from LG, Motorola, etc for a full truckload shipment to the store. I guess. Now if all goes well the amount you hold at the DC will be minimal, just to smooth the shipping patterns. In simple inventory models (EOQ? Its been a while) thats basically it. But the simple models always assume you know exactly what your sales will be, which doesnt hold in the real world.
In this case, you order based on likely sales. You may even order somewhat more, since the cost of holding inventory is less than the cost of losing a sale do to being out of stock.
If your sales projection is wrong, you build up inventory, cut your order rate, and then sell from your stock for awhile. Not necessarily a disaster for ATT."A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin BuberComment
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LotM,
Yes, that's exactly what I've been trying to communicate. Any ordering that ATT does is for sale. Without sales they aren't going to be ordering. They aren't going to order phones just to warehouse them, when they can always just order more from Apple, and probably at a lower price.I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
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Originally posted by Kidicious
LotM,
Yes, that's exactly what I've been trying to communicate. Any ordering that ATT does is for sale. Without sales they aren't going to be ordering. They aren't going to order phones just to warehouse them, when they can always just order more from Apple, and probably at a lower price.
But Asher isnt claiming ATT ordered phones in order to warehouse them. Hes claiming they ordered them to sell them, and then sales fell short of expectations.
One would expect that theyve cut back orders in response, but the data that is currently available, in terms of either ATT orders or Apple sales data, is insufficient to establish that.
I think the disconnect here is the time dimension in the retail sales - order - wholesale sales process. You seem to assume that if ATT sales of Iphones falls on Tuesday, the cut orders on Wednesday, and Apple sales fall on Wednesday, in which case Apple sales should very closely track retail sales.
But I dont think it works that way. Sales fall on Tuesday, but ATT doesnt know if thats a fluke or not. Since new phones ordered wont arrive at retail for a few days even at premium air express (we can discuss the transportation issue) they need to wait a bit, to make sure the sales dip isnt a fluke, or cutting orders will expose them to the risk of lost sales due to being out of stock.
So they lose sales on Tuesday, but dont cut their orders till, say, Friday AM.
Then at what point does orders become sales? Not instantly, despite the good work of logistics consultants. Apple - China, or whatever, has to book the order (probably almost instant these days, cue to wondrous technology) then they actually have to assemble and package it, inspect for proper order fulfillment, label it, and issue transport orders, etc. Its been awhile since Ive had dealings with outbound logistics processes, and ive never had such dealings in the electronics industry, but lets say it takes 24 hours. (lets assume they ship 7 days a week) The change in Apple sales wont be booked till Saturday AM, four days after the initial sales dip. Depending on how the sales data is released (daily, weekly, etc) wholesale sales may NOT closely track retail sales.
The big question of course, is how fast ATT reacts to what may look like a flukey drop in sales.Last edited by lord of the mark; September 12, 2007, 10:25."A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin BuberComment
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The opposite also can not be established. Asher want's us to believe that ATT managers are totally incompetent, but because that fits into his fantasy world. We have no reason to believe that.Originally posted by lord of the mark
But Asher isnt claiming ATT ordered phones in order to warehouse them. Hes claiming they ordered them to sell them, and then sales fell short of expectations.
One would expect that theyve cut back orders in response, but the data that is currently available, in terms of either ATT orders or Apple sales data, is insufficient to establish that.I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
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Are you serious?Originally posted by Kidicious
Asher want's us to believe that ATT managers are totally incompetent, but because that fits into his fantasy world. We have no reason to believe that.
They sent 200-300 page iPhone bills with no real information. We have no reason to believe AT&T management is incompetent?
Not to mention they have the slowest network and worst call quality..."The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "Comment
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How many times, honestly, do I need to say AT&T isn't ordering phones to warehouse them?Originally posted by Kidicious
LotM,
Yes, that's exactly what I've been trying to communicate. Any ordering that ATT does is for sale. Without sales they aren't going to be ordering. They aren't going to order phones just to warehouse them, when they can always just order more from Apple, and probably at a lower price.
Read this VERY carefully. Re-read this sentence at least 30 times: It is likely AT&T overestimated their capacity to sell iPhones compared to the Apple Stores.
Given the enormous hype and exclusivity, they probably ordered MANY phones. But the vast majority of iPhones are being sold by Apple stores (7 to 1).
Do you think AT&T's 1,800 stores got 1/7th of the iPhone shipments?"The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "Comment
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Every business has trouble and makes mistakes, but you are claiming that they made a decision that no one with any training in inventory management would make. That's absurd. It's amazing how you can fit that into your fantasy world.Originally posted by Asher
Are you serious?
They sent 200-300 page iPhone bills with no real information. We have no reason to believe AT&T management is incompetent?
Not to mention they have the slowest network and worst call quality...I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
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If he didn't get it in the first 17 pages, he's not going to get it now.Originally posted by Asher
Read this VERY carefully. Re-read this sentence at least 30 times:
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First, you seem to think that ATT is doing a lot of the distribution work and planning that Apple is probably doing. They aren't ordering from China or anything. I doubt if the iphones are delivered to ATT warehouses. Probably the same delivery trucks that deliver to the Apple stores deliver to the ATT stores. Apple does most of the distribution.Originally posted by lord of the mark
The big question of course, is how fast ATT reacts to what may look like a flukey drop in sales.
Second, this is a new product. How long would you think that ATT would react, if they were responsible for extensive logistics planning? A month?Last edited by Kidlicious; September 12, 2007, 10:48.I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
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