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The "surge" is a success?

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  • #31
    Loads of **** happening in place X
    US: sends military to place X
    terrorists: right, pack up guys, we're movin'.
    US: See, it worked....woot, we won!!!!
    Loads of **** happening in place Y
    Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing?
    Then why call him God? - Epicurus

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    • #32
      Have you not been reading my posts? The entire point is that a steadily growing Iraqi Army isn't going to address the roots of the problem.
      Well then we have a fundamental difference of opinion, because while you think a bunch of out of touch legislators writing meaningless paperwork about oil revenue sharing that they have no means to enforce constitutes success, I find that a functioning police/military made up of a million odd Iraqis working for stability and genuinely motivated to do so while taking responsibility for their own lands and people matters more.

      Your welcome to your opinion, but since the vast majority of Iraq is at peace under the leadership of their own people your dire forecast, while possible, looks increasingly more unlikely every day.

      Especially since assuming we only keep the surge until the spring (though I keep prompting your realize the reality of what they are saying, logistics has nothing to do with it) we have as much time left ahead of us to improve as we have behind us.
      "The DPRK is still in a state of war with the U.S. It's called a black out." - Che explaining why orbital nightime pictures of NK show few lights. Seriously.

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      • #33
        Loads of **** happening in place Y
        Except there isn't loads of **** happening in place Y.
        "The DPRK is still in a state of war with the U.S. It's called a black out." - Che explaining why orbital nightime pictures of NK show few lights. Seriously.

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        • #34
          Originally posted by Patroklos
          I volunteered 7 months ago. Or maybe you mean general officers...
          I think the exception proves the rule in this case.
          I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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          • #35
            In my case I could go between PCS orders when I was already being relocated, or go during my current orders and be uprooted.

            The Navy has decided to uproot me, though I think Naval Reactors (my boss's boss's boss) is trying to hold on to me, and they have the four stars to do it.
            "The DPRK is still in a state of war with the U.S. It's called a black out." - Che explaining why orbital nightime pictures of NK show few lights. Seriously.

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            • #36




              The march of progress

              Not success, but progress (perhaps I should have said that earlier, I assume people remember previous conversations).
              "The DPRK is still in a state of war with the U.S. It's called a black out." - Che explaining why orbital nightime pictures of NK show few lights. Seriously.

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              • #37
                Originally posted by Patroklos
                Not success, but progress (perhaps I should have said that earlier, I assume people remember previous conversations).
                I would be more interested in an argument that states that August traditionally has been the month with the fewest incidents in any event and therefore this is "fool's gold."
                I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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                • #38
                  August is the hottest month over there, it makes sense that activity of all sorts would die down.
                  "The DPRK is still in a state of war with the U.S. It's called a black out." - Che explaining why orbital nightime pictures of NK show few lights. Seriously.

                  Comment

                  • #39

                    Well then we have a fundamental difference of opinion, because while you think a bunch of out of touch legislators writing meaningless paperwork about oil revenue sharing that they have no means to enforce constitutes success, I find that a functioning police/military made up of a million odd Iraqis working for stability and genuinely motivated to do so while taking responsibility for their own lands and people matters more.
                    If you really think that the political disagreements between the sectarian factions are trivial (not only about oil sharing, but de-Ba'athification, federalism, etc.), while the Iraqi security forces (particularly the police) aren't rife with allegiances to the militias, you're completely misreading the situation in Iraq. There's a reason why the moderate Sunni Arabs in the NAF pulled out of the supposed national unity gov't.

                    Your welcome to your opinion, but since the vast majority of Iraq is at peace under the leadership of their own people your dire forecast, while possible, looks increasingly more unlikely every day.
                    We'll see, but my forecasts have been a lot closer to the mark than yours...

                    Especially since assuming we only keep the surge until the spring (though I keep prompting your realize the reality of what they are saying, logistics has nothing to do with it) we have as much time left ahead of us to improve as we have behind us.
                    It's possible that I misused the term logistics. But I know what the Pentagon brass have been saying. Get to your point dude...
                    "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                    -Bokonon

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                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Ramo


                      If you really think that the political disagreements between the sectarian factions are trivial (not only about oil sharing, but de-Ba'athification, federalism, etc.), while the Iraqi security forces (particularly the police) aren't rife with allegiances to the militias, you're completely misreading the situation in Iraq. There's a reason why the moderate Sunni Arabs in the NAF pulled out of the supposed national unity gov't.
                      The issues are not trivial for sure. The second part about the security forces being rife with sectarian loyalties is way out of date (as is a lot of your thinking on this whole subject...but that is another matter). The primary reason for the slow growth of Iraqi security forces is the great length that the US is now going to to prevent this type thing...and they have done quite well at it.

                      So well, in fact, that it sometimes makes me wonder if we are not going to try to set up a military coup after we withdraw, but again...that is another story.

                      Militarily the Iraqis are slowly stepping up. Politically they are a bunch of sectarian hacks with no real interest in the artificially created boundaries that have been called Iraq. Until some sort of nationalism is created or developed then the political situation seems stagnant.
                      "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

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                      • #41
                        The march of progress

                        Not success, but progress (perhaps I should have said that earlier, I assume people remember previous conversations).
                        Interesting map. It's interesting that the changes seem to be that the coalition is taking a back seat in the Shia South and Kurdish North. The Brits are of course withdrawing from Iraq, leaving the Mahdi Army and the Badr Brigade to duke it out over Basra. And of course the Peshmerga have taken up jurisdiction up North. Yay Iraq.
                        "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                        -Bokonon

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                        • #42
                          We'll see, but my forecasts have been a lot closer to the mark than yours...
                          Since my estimates have been consistantly 10 years (about what it took for us to make a functioning government), we don't know that yet.

                          It's possible that I misused the term logistics. But I know what the Pentagon brass have been saying. Get to your point dude...
                          That when they say breaking point they don't mean the army disintegrates. They mean some units won't be available for their scheduled maintenance periods. That the current rotation dates can't be met. That we may have to canabilize some non critical units to equip deployed ones.

                          All of these are symptoms of prosecuting a war on a non war footing.

                          Imagine that, the army deteriorates materially when engaged in operations. When has this not been the case? To imagine that the United States can't support a force of only 200,000 is ridiculous. The question is what do we change/modify/ask for to keep current operations where they are? The answer is treat the war like a war, not some extended police action.
                          "The DPRK is still in a state of war with the U.S. It's called a black out." - Che explaining why orbital nightime pictures of NK show few lights. Seriously.

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                          • #43
                            The Brits are of course withdrawing from Iraq, leaving the Mahdi Army and the Badr Brigade to duke it out over Basra.
                            Not anytime soon, and so far the Shia provinces total lacking in British troops are doing just fine.
                            "The DPRK is still in a state of war with the U.S. It's called a black out." - Che explaining why orbital nightime pictures of NK show few lights. Seriously.

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                            • #44
                              Yesterday my (Dutch) newspaper featured an article on the Hurriyah suburb in Baghdad. Surely, things were calm there now after it had been the scene of bloodyness last year.
                              Unfortunately, the suburb is calm now that the Mahdi-army has driven out all sunni's and now control the streets with all the negative side-effects attached.

                              "Lt. Colonel Steve Miska called the militia a neighbourhood-prevention comittee on steroids"

                              Iraq is ****ed, and no surge is going to help them out
                              "post reported"Winston, on the barricades for freedom of speech
                              "I don't like laws all over the world. Doesn't mean I am going to do anything but post about it."Jon Miller

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                              • #45
                                The issues are not trivial for sure. The second part about the security forces being rife with sectarian loyalties is way out of date (as is a lot of your thinking on this whole subject...but that is another matter). The primary reason for the slow growth of Iraqi security forces is the great length that the US is now going to to prevent this type thing...and they have done quite well at it.

                                What a laughably naive view of Iraq.

                                Not anytime soon,
                                They're leaving Basra right now.

                                and so far the Shia provinces total lacking in British troops are doing just fine.
                                If by doing just fine, you mean being run by the Shia militias, I guess that's true. But that'd be a strange definition. This is the absurdness in your map. You're counting areas that are controlled by sectarian militias as great examples of Iraqis stepping up for a unified Iraqi nation..
                                "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                                -Bokonon

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