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And of course, a true classic, Boshko's poll, from a month before the war began:
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If you don't like reality, change it! me
"Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
"it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
"Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard Shaw -
The Times to-day says that "The central premise of Mr Bush's surge strategy was to buy a security breathing space so that Mr al-Maliki, a Shis, could forge a political compromise between Sunni, Shia and Kurdish factions."
Is that right?
If so, I guess it would take quite a while to know whether it has succeeded. That is, until there has been a long enough period of peace to constitute a breathing space.Comment
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this from the person who thinks secterian violence was not important....
So sectarian violence has nothing to do with the security situation? You are such a pathetic joke. You didn't even defend your deliberate false paraphase.
Who said anything about success? We mentioned progress, they both end in "ss" so I can see why you might be confused. In any case, if you think less violence over an entire year is not progress, you are a hack.Is violence in iraq better than in 2005? or 2004? or 2003? NO. Its better than in 2006, which was the worst year, that is all. That is scant evidence of success.
Of course we know this.
Was your point in merging threads to show how wrong Ramo's predictions were?And of course, a true classic, Boshko's poll, from a month before the war began
Not really, Gepap has already decided he knows and with him being omnicient you better believe what he saysIf so, I guess it would take quite a while to know whether it has succeeded.
Chickenhawk?
"The DPRK is still in a state of war with the U.S. It's called a black out." - Che explaining why orbital nightime pictures of NK show few lights. Seriously.Comment
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They don't look too bad to me. I bounded the possibilities in terms of success. Broadly speaking, the lower bound - the Lebanon option - is fairly close to the mark. Obviously the current situation is better than the lower bound since a Kurdish secession/Turkish invasion hasn't occurred, but that was the point - it was an extrema in terms of how ****ed up the situation could get. And there were some issues I missed, like a civil war among the Shia, but I'm not not omniscient....Was your point in merging threads to show how wrong Ramo's predictions were?
As for the upper bound, as I was saying a few months after the war began and the total ineptitude and naivete became clear, I overestimated the Administration's malevolence and underestimated its incompetence."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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GePap's analysis from 2003 was pretty much spot-on, and yet he is derided. Meanwhile, people who have been wrong, over and over again, are the ones scoffing at him.
Deluded, indeed.
-Arriangrog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!
The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.Comment
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This was your best case. Do you think the status quo was better than now?Ramo 2003
Best case, given Shrub's political disposition, is a ruthless Sunni Ba'athist taking Saddam's place, he rapidly suppresses dissent, and back to the status quo antebellum.
Gepaps ananlysis in 2003 "its going to fail." We shall see.GePap's analysis from 2003 was pretty much spot-on, and yet he is derided.
Victory through vagueness
"The DPRK is still in a state of war with the U.S. It's called a black out." - Che explaining why orbital nightime pictures of NK show few lights. Seriously.Comment
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I've been browsing the late '02 and '03 threads. It does appear that I was on hiatus then, b/c there aren't any posts from me in the many, many Iraq threads.
A couple of things you and I have discussed, Patroklos:
1) I've seen a fair amount of "war for oil!" stuff
2) I've seen a fair amount of WWII comparisons (appeasement, Japan/Germany became democracies, etc).
Another GePap quote from Dec 2002:
What this administration has failed utterly in is articualting anything more than the most vague vision for Iraq after, which is the most important thing of all. How will the US help reate a stable, and perhaps democratic regime, help avoid fighting between factions, halp grat legitimacy to the government so it will not be seen as a US imposed one, which will mean an eventual death sentece on the regime. The day after and beyond is the hard part, and Bush has shown no vision for it. until he does, the tanks should stay at home, becuase otherwise we might be worse of than before.
So all this "you're an idiot" crap directed at him is all so much bull****.
-Arriangrog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!
The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.Comment
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Given that the current situation is not stable and is likely to get a lot ****tier (the various sectarian conflicts have not resolved themselves), after all is said and done, it's probable that our invasion significantly worsened the situation. The point, again, is that in broad outlines, my worst case pointed to our current major problems. It holds up pretty well compared to what most people were saying before the war started.This was your best case, unless you think the status quo was better than now.
And it's not particularly fair for you to criticize what I wrote when we haven't seen what you were saying at the time."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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No. That's your simplification of it, which makes it seem vague.Gepaps ananlysis in 2003 "its going to fail." We shall see.
He cited the specific reason he thought it would fail: an obvious lack of planning for the aftermath by the admin - Bush & Co had no clear idea of how to get from step 1 (invade, topple Saddam) to step 3 (stable democracy in Iraq). SPOT ON.
-Arriangrog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!
The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.Comment
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Heh,
Evil, Evil Finland...
Classic.
-Arriangrog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!
The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.Comment
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Unstable and ****y with a possibity of improvement or stable and ****tier with no possibility of improvement (in fact guarunteed deterioration).Given that the current situation is not stable and is likely to get a lot ****tier
Sucks either way, but one is definetly better than the other.
I've been looking, but it doesn't seem that I was posting in that time frame. Not that you did the data mining yourself mind you.And it's not particularly fair for you to criticize what I wrote when we haven't seen what you were saying at the time.
How is that not vague?He cited the specific reason he thought it would fail: an obvious lack of planning for the aftermath by the admin - Bush & Co had no clear idea of how to get from step 1 (invade, topple Saddam) to step 3 (stable democracy in Iraq). SPOT ON."The DPRK is still in a state of war with the U.S. It's called a black out." - Che explaining why orbital nightime pictures of NK show few lights. Seriously.Comment
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http://www.apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?postid=1677214#post1677214Originally posted by Arrian
I've been browsing the late '02 and '03 threads. It does appear that I was on hiatus then, b/c there aren't any posts from me in the many, many Iraq threads.
I make no bones about my moral support for [terrorist] organizations. - chegitz guevara
For those who aspire to live in a high cost, high tax, big government place, our nation and the world offers plenty of options. Vermont, Canada and Venezuela all offer you the opportunity to live in the socialist, big government paradise you long for. –Senator RubioComment
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I haven't run across anything from Patroklos. Both of us were absent during the run-up to the war.
Vague. Ok. Sure, it was vague. He didn't predict that on XX-XX-XXXX a bomb would go in ____ off and kill ____ people.
-Arriangrog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!
The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.Comment
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Again, the point is that the current state of the game is likely to get significantly ****tier than the status quo antebellum. Already, there are hundreds of thousands dead and millions of refugees...Unstable and ****y with a possibity of improvement or stable and ****tier with no possibility of improvement (in fact guarunteed deterioration).
Sucks either way, but one is definetly better than the other."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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I missed that one the first time through. I jumped in 10-page blocks for a while, looking for threads I'd posted in. Then I went back and I'm going page-by-page, but I was still in late 2002. That thread is in Jan '03. I was about to get to it. Heh.Originally posted by DinoDoc
-Arriangrog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!
The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.Comment
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